Posted:
#1
Last week 3-3 -.3 units
Season to date 30-10 +18.9 units
Disappointing week, as it ended with two straight OVER/UNDER losses, that lost by a mile. Would rather lose by a ton than by a close one, as you don't win style points when betting....I'd rather lose early than late any day.
The lines are out:
BC -2- Calgary 56-
Ottawa -10 Montreal 49-
Toronto +2 Edmonton 52-
Hamilton -10 Sask 53
The three games that pass the eyeball test are BC -, Montreal +, and Toronto +. BC is the gorgeous popular cheerleader type, that everybody likes,....expect that they will be a consensus pick by the covers faithful, as they were last week, when they almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
A lot of smart and respected money went from bettors pockets into bookmaker's deep and secret vaults as, despite the so-called public square betting the Lions at a greater than 64% clip, the line went down.
Sometimes the public wins and the smart money doesn't.
I am not immune to falling in love....I am in love with the Lions with a man crush on Wally, the Lions head coach. However, when betting from a tech standpoint, we look for reasons NOT to bet on certain teams.
I found one in this: Home divisional favorites that have scored in excess of 30 points 3 straight games are 3-13 against the spread and 3-13 OVER. Coupled with the fact that the Lions are gonna be a public consensus, will probably be enough to get me off of the beautiful Lions.
And I thought it was true love, sniff, sniff.
Would I, or could I change my mind and take the Lions later in the week?....it wouldn't be the first time I might engage with someone that I know could lead me down the road to wreckage and ruin.
We'll see how impetuous I am later in the week.
Montreal certainly fits the part of ugliness right now. Their defense is very good,....but their offense is about as low as you can go right now, and their coaching and discipline are also at the bottom of the barrel. They coulda/woulda/shoulda covered last week in Edmonton in a colossal tease of a game..... jilting their lovers in a most painful way in the last few moments of the game by throwing a touchdown, to the wrong team.
I'll want to know if Henry or Jensen are playing qb this week, rather than Harris for Ottawa.....if Harris ISN'T playing and Montreal isn't a public dog I'll call on my hidden masochistic side of me and take the pathetic Als with the huge amount of points the usually not-so-nice bookmaker would gladly give me. They couldn't wreck their backers two weeks in a row, could they?
Toronto stunk it up last week, as guys who haven't played qb in this league who have a good outing their first extended action tend to fall back to earth in their second performance. Falling back to earth is an understatement for Logan Kilgore as he tossed 5 passes to the wrong team last week. He'll get coached up this week and the Argos will go conservative which should make this a low scoring game.
Mister Bookmaker said to his wife after last week's game, "Doris, shoot me if I ever make the Argos home favorites, EVER again," after another dismal performance as a home favorite.
So of course this week they are home dogs to a team that has done nothing this year, in the Eskmos.
Argos beautiful dogs, ugly, fug ugly favorites.
Still, what is a less than 500 team doing being a road favorite? Teams that are non divisional away favorites that are less 500 are 1-9 ATS.
And then Sasquatches bringing ugliness to new levels....can we really consider taking them in any situation?.....maybe as home non divisional dogs in front of their rabid fans, like they were a couple of weeks ago when they eked out a home dog win at plus six.
Their defense has improved, but how could it not?
Don't want to step in front of the Zach train right now, and Sask will need to score points to keep up, which is not an assumption that I'd bet on right now..... Ticats or nothing on this game.
0
.
Hot Forum Topics
