CFL week 9

Season to date, 19-14 ATS

Johnny M throws 4 interceptions in the first half, which I don't know if I've heard has happened before.  The Als issues permeate through the whole team and with their team out of it, he'll get his chances to throw a few more this year without having the pressure of possibly being benched.  I hope he does well, but what in the world is the bookmaker gonna do with Montreal on a week to week basis to get some semblance of interest in backing them?

The Als did cover a huge number at Calgary, which punters can take some solace in.

Meanwhile, the antithesis of the Als guy, Bethel-Thompson of the Argos was bringing it with a HUGE comeback win over the Redblacks....all I can say about that is "good on 'em".  The guys has been cut more than 10 times, and never has had any fanfare,...showed up in the Argos camp as the third string guy, not even guaranteed a job and his first game brings a team back from a 28-7 halftime deficit.  I am loving this guy already for having the fortitude to stick with the game and guys like that prove that they love the game itself, not just the fame/fortune that it brings.  You can go to war with a guy like that (versus a James Franklin who says football is fun, but he doesn't really love it,.........well James, it showed!), I hope B-T can use this past weekend's game as a springboard to many years of success at the professional level.

Indigo lines for this coming week's games.

Bombers    -6         Hamilton     56

Lions        +2'         Eskimos      55

Redblacks -14        Alouettes    51

An away dog of a home loss where a team gave up >35 points has been 12-10 ATS and 8-14 O/U as an away division dog the next week (Als).  The average score was 21-26.7

po:points>35 and p:HL and AD and DIV

Teams that lost on the road by <=7 points as an away favorite and now are a home divisional favorites have been 10-5 ATS and 5-10 O/U (Redblacks)....the average score was 28.6-21.1

p:margin>=-7 and p:AFL and HF and DIV 

not until Monday afternoon usually

Nice find Dogbite, here is a similar query....

p:L and AD and p:TO>2 and DIV

48-21 ATS (+5.51), 33-36 straight up (-1.10) and 30-38 O/U (-1.88), final average score/line  24.1-25.2, +6.6

only 9 team league.  Except for Calgary and Montreal the rest of the league has been coin flips.

Setting your own odds/lines,...if you do it well  you may  beat the game.  Yours has to be better than the house lines.

Below is a link to a  guy who used to do it in horse betting....he'd make his own odds and when his deviated from the house's lines he'd make a bet, towards the end of his career it was common that millions would change hands every day.

At the end of his life his estate was worth 600 million....Alan Woods

The link below is a story of his life as one of the best ever bettors.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-tony-wilson-mr-huge-alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-149

Here's a very good query that relates to a regression of turnovers, the team with the past turnover disadvantage tends to play better than expected.

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>.5 and playoffs=0  and AD and tA(W)<oA(W) 

Play ON a team with at least a .5 turnover disadvantage/game,  that is an away dog and has a worse winning percentage than their opponent

96-55 ATS (+2.07), 49-104 straight up (-5.71) and 65-87 O/U (-1.83)

the average line and score was:

+7.8         22.2-28 

Should include the Tiger Cats and the Alouettes this week

adding a line to your query

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>.5 and playoffs=0  and AD and tA(W)<oA(W) and line <=6

45-16 ATS

 SU (moneyline) 37-25 59.7%

Linemaker has put out his lines....mine in parentheses.

Bombers    -4         (-6)     Tiger Cats  54    (56)

Lions        +3'       (+2')     Eskimos    57    (55)

Redblacks -13'      (-14)     Alouettes   49'   (51)

Plays:

1)  Lions +3'

2)  Lions/Eskimos OVER 54

For those rational left brained types, of which I'm one of, there's not a lot of data to back these plays up.  BC since Travis Lulay has become the starter has played better, enough to cover a couple of games in a row against good opponents on the road.

I think they score >20 points against the Eskimo defense, which will gets you the cover 70% of the time as home divisional dogs.  I also think that the Eskimos get >20, and if so the home team then covers about 65% of the time and the OVER gets there 88% of the time.

HD and DIV   and points>20  and o:points>20 and total>50

It is said that pro handicappers don't bet the teams, but the numbers.  I have the Lions as less than a field goal dog and they are getting more than a field goal and since I've started making my own lines, going with my relative strength numbers over the bookies' has proven to be profitable............I'm taking.

As far as the Alouettes are concerned, a few  of the queries I use likes them A LOT, or alternatively likes the Redblacks NOT to cover after blowing their game in Toronto.  I'm uneasy about taking the Alouettes and probably won't unless the line goes north of 14, and even then I might not take them.

More than likely I will wait about 4 games for Manziel to get his feet wet and get acclimated to the game in Canada before I pay money on my opinions.

Hamilton I like, but the linemaker has put out a disappointing line....we'll see if the public bets this game to about 6 as game time approaches.

I PMed you Dogbite....see what you think.

Just saw your post Spottie and your find, very impressive.....most know I am not a line shopper, but about 3% of the time I wait to see if I might get a better line.  Winnipeg has been a scoring machine and usually the public loves a team that can score, so I'll wait out the public to see if their love of the Bombers pushes the line to higher to +6 or above.

Agree 

H and line <=-10.5 and n:D

Yes, I know there are a ton of positive queries to take the Montreal Manziels....don't think I'll be pulling the trigger on them.  Spottie's cajones are mucho grande,....mine?  not nearly as big.

Play:

3)  Hamilton Tiger Cats +6

The public cooperated and moved this line from+4 to +6, right where I had them.  So, there is no disadvantage in the line for us.  We've got advantageous situations backing the Tiger Cats that says they will out-perform expectations.  This one will be an interesting game to watch, and hopefully win.

HF and on:HF and not DIV and day