CFL week 9

1-4 last week, 21-24 for the season.....terrible.

Plays:

1)  Bombers -8

2)  Alouettes +2

3)  Eskimos -9

Best wishes friend 

Nice to see you guys.

One thing I've noticed through the years, is that teams that "were supposed to win" according to the queries I go through, and perform poorly against the line, do well against the line the next week.

Same with teams that "were supposed to lose", and win, they commonly do poorly against the line next week.

The three teams I've taken this week were all had divergent results than what "should have" happened last week....so I am doing short-term regression for these games.  When we have one team that should have won last week, versus a team that should have lost, that is the best case scenario.

When teams have a very disparate turnover ratio in their favor or score on returns, that is often a signal that they will yoyo this week. 

The Tiger Cats, also should have covered last week and since the line has gone down to a more reasonable level, I am considering them too.

Let's see if we can have a winning week.

Really SG?

I'll wait with anticipation to see how your opinion works out, both side and opinion of where the line is going.

I'll tip my hat to you if you're right, but it's doubtful it's coming off.

Opinions are a dime a dozen at best, we'll see if your opinion is 10 cents, or less.

Here's a query that favors the Alouettes.

Play on a home non-divisional dog  that averages more rushing yards/game than their present opponent.

tA(RY)>oA(RY) and HD  and not DIV

26-16 ATS

A home non-divisional dog with a net rushing average advantage, (offense minus defense rushing yards) has been 24-10 ATS.

tA(RY-o:RY)>oA(RY-o:RY) and HD  and not DIV

This moves to 20-4 ATS when playing East Division teams

tA(RY-o:RY)>oA(RY-o:RY) and HD  and not DIV   and division

A team as a dog that lost as at least a 7 point home  favorite their last game,.....Alouettes 13-6-1, 6-14 O/U,

including 4-0 ATS and 0-4 O/U as a home dog.

p:HFL and p:line<-7  and D

A team as a dog that lost as at least a 7 point home  favorite their last game,.....Alouettes 13-6-1 ATS, 7-13 O/U,

including 4-0 ATS and 0-4 O/U as a home dog.

p:HFL and p:line<-7  and D

Deleting my Eskimos play on the basis of this query.

HF and p:AFL and pp:HFW and not DIV....2-12 ATS, versus Eskimos.

Leaves me with....

Plays:

1) Bombers -8

2) Alouettes +2

Query favoring fading the Tiger Cats.

Go VERSUS a home favorite that lost last week on the  road  and the previous previous game won at home as a home dog.

3-15 ATS, 7-11 straight up.

HF and p:ADL and pp:HDW and not DIV

Here is an angle that encompasses both the Tiger Cat and Eskimo games......

HF and p:AL and pp:HW  and not DIV

13-26 ATS, AGAINST Tiger Cats and AGAINST Eskimos.

Play on a home team that lost their previous home game, playing a team that won their last road game....Alouettes

oS(W@A, N=1) = 1.0 and tS(W@H, N=1) = 0.0 and H

86-67 ATS

oS(W@A, N=1) = 1.0 and tS(W@H, N=1) = 0.0 and H and not DIV

49-24 ATS if a non-divisional game home game

32-12 ATS if a home non-divisional dog

Play on a home non-divisional dog if they have an average greater ats margin/game than their present opponent...Alouettes

17-7 ATS, 13-11 straight up.

HD and tA(ats margin)>oA(ats margin) and not DIV and playoffs=0

Adding:

3)   Bombers UNDER 50

4)   Alouettes  UNDER 50