CFL week 9 Indigo lines/discussion

I was remiss in not posting the 6 CFL staff writers picks for the week, cumulative record 75-102, which is 42%.  The pointspread comes into play around 16-18% of the time, and of course the public and those that are deficient will be picking mostly favorites, so it is likely that if those writers were picking against the spread that their record would be worse than 42%.

That 42% is about what the general public will pick against the spread as well, so as mentioned, if you can't handicap profitably yourself, find out who the mushes are picking which includes most media types and former players and fade.

Last week you would have gone 2-1 by fading the staff writer's picks....and they are off to a normal start this week with 6 out of 6 picking the Elks last night.

Other staff writers picks this week....

2)   5 out of 6 on Winnipeg

3)   4 out of 6 on Hamilton

4)   5 out of 6 on Saskatchewan

This is one of the secret sauces of handicapping of fading consensus public opinion, that shouldn't be so secret by now.  These people that the CFL are asking to pick games are mushes, and they are a valuable resource, at least as valuable as any handicapping that we are doing.  Fading mushes gets stronger at the mid-point of the season and beyond as injuries, fatigue and revenge make the playing field more level than at the beginning of the season.  The basic premise in handicapping pro football is to fade last season's results at the beginning of the season, and to fade the results of the beginning of the season at the mid-point and beyond.

Here are the calculated lines for the seaason.  We'll calculate the average points for/against first and find out the average points/game scored in the CFL to make our own lines and then the results when there is a discrepancy between our line and the Vegas line.  Average points scored in a game this year is 41.6 

Bombers 24.7-14

Lions      25.7-19.6

Calculated line Lions +1.8  total 52.4

Sask       23.4-20.4

Calgary   20.3-21.3

Calculated line is   Stamps +1  total 43.8

Montreal  26.3-25.7

Hamilton 19.4-17

Hamilton -4.8  total 46.8

Using this method, we have an OVER in the Riders/Stamps game and leans to the Alouettes and the Riders.  We will start using the last six games as a calculating device rather than the whole season statistics next week when I have more time on my hands.

The best play side-wise is looking to be the Alouettes as both the media and the calculated line like the Tiger Cats, which denotes a fade of Hamilton.  Will wait on this line to hit 3 or above. 

To calculate the totals we do not use averages by points above or below league average.

To give an example of this.....say in a normal league the average rush yards per carry is 4.2 per rush.

If Taam A is playing team B, and A's rushing average is 5 yards per rush, and Team B is allowing 5 yards per rush.  

Will it be expected that A will rush for 5 yards per rush in this game?  The answer is no, we find that Team A is rushing for .8 yards/rush above average and Team B is allowing .8 yards/rush over average.  We add .8 to .8 to get an expected rushing average of 1.6 yards/rush for Team A over the league average, to get 6.6 yards per rush.

We take the calculated average points scored in a game and take the individual team's points scored per game and subtract the average points scored per game, 41.6 to get an amount of points scored above/below the league average.  If Team A's games  are scoring 2.3 points per game over average and the scoring in  team B's games is scoring 3.3 points per game over league average, we will add those teams' scoring above average together to get 5.6 and add that to our 41.6 number to get expected points scored of 47.2

THEN because we don't expect things to stay the same and because bettors usually lose and  Vegas usually wins,  we fade our brilliant calculations when there is a difference of 3 points or more.

Correction:

Bombers 24.7-14

Lions      25.7-19.6

Calculated line Lions +1.8  total 52.4 is not correct, it should be 42.4

Plays:

1)  Bombers/Lions OVER 52

2)  Riders/Stampeders OVER 49

An update on an angle we posted earlier.....

Take a week 4 game number 4 away dog whose calculated line is greater than the Vegas line...an example of this is that the Giants average margin per game is -6/game, and the Saints are +10/game, adding 3 points to home field gives us a calculated line of Giants +19.  Obviously their calculated line is much greater than the actual Vegas line of +7.5ish.

week=4 and AD and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0

84-59 ATS (+1), 58.7%.....Ravens, Jaguars, Texans, Giants

A tightener we can use is to query if our team lost their previous road game which eliminates the Ravens...this gives us a 64-32 ATS record, which ups the winning percentage significantly to 66.7%.

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and game number=4 and week=4 and AD and tS(W@A, N=1)=0

A further tightener will be to say our team has a negative scoring margin on the season....58-27 ATS, (+2.9), 68.2%.....the average line on these games has been +7 and the indicated teams have won straight up 38.1% of the time. 

If we wish to calculate the return of investment for betting the moneyline we take the percentage of times won.... .381 times the average moneyline return of +260 (or 2.6). 

.381 x 2.6 = .9906 and then we subtract the reciprocal loser percentage probability of .619 (1-.381) to get a calculated return of 37.16%.

Jaguars, Giants, Texans

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and game number=4 and week=4 and AD and tS(W@A, N=1)=0 and tA(margin)<0

One caveat for this query is that teams that are facing an opponent that has not played a home game yet are only 5-6 ATS....the Saints are playing their first game at home venue as their home game was moved to Florida when they crushed the Packers week 1, so I am re-considering my Giants play and  almost certainly will not play them as a contest play.

NFL.....

A week four, game four away non-divisional dog with 1 or zero wins on the season off a home dog loss.....17-6 ATS.....Jaguars, Texans

If this team has less wins than their opponent this moves to 14-3 ATS (+6.7)....Jags, Texans

t:wins<2 and week=4 and AD and division!=o:division and game number=4 and p:HDL and t:wins<o:wins

If this team is playing a team off a home win 6-0 ATS........Texans,.....playing a team off an away win....3-2 ATS....Jaguars

____________________________________________________________________________

If, on the other hand our non-divisional away dog with 0 or 1 wins is off a home favorite loss they have been 7-17 ATS....Giants, Steelers

Why the big difference between a home dog loser and a home favorite loser?....I have no answer for that.

Deleting Giants and Lions

Lions have 67% of the KOC bettors on them....that's too much.  Giants, though their road record is stellar,  are in a couple of negative situations so I am getting out of my play with them.   Teams that start the season 0-4 are very good plays going forward on the road as away dogs.

Adding:

Texans

5)  Falcons +1'

4)  Vikings +2

3)  Seahawks +3, -115

2)  Cardinals +6

1)  Texans +16'

NFL

An unbeaten home dog in a non-divisional game after week 2 has been 27-13 ATS.....the line is moving that way in the Broncos/Ravens game.  If our unbeaten home dog will be a favorite their next game (the Broncos will be away favorites next week at the Steelers) this moves to 13-3 ATS, covering by an average of over 12 points per game.

HD and t:losses=0 and week>2 and n:F

We'll keep our eyes on the Broncos' line, and if they become a consensus home dog as they have at betonline.com , then this query becomes applicable.

Contest plays are in.....none of these contest plays should be a surprise based on what my week 4 thread has been based on.  King of Covers' consensus percentage on the right

1)  Texans +16'.........47%

2)  Seahawks +3.......39% (nice that the Westgate gave us a "3"!)

3)  Falcons +1...........52%

4)  Vikings +2...........49%

5)  Cardinals +4'.......49%

So, we'll see.....I liked the Lions, but waaaay too many people agreed with me at 65% presently.....playing well loved underdogs is usually the kiss of death in sports betting,....better, MUCH BETTER to take a dog that only a mother could love.

Another angle of interest....away dogs off of a home favorite loss before week 8 that are playing a team who has a regular season wins line of greater than 9.5 have been 13-7 ATS, 13-6-1 OVER.....Steelers, we'll see if waiting will bringing us a +7 that isn't juiced and make a play on them.

AD and o:RSWL>=10 and week<8 and p:HFL and division!=o:division

Unbeaten week 4 away non-divisional dogs have been 6-12-2 ATS....Panthers

Unbeaten divisional week 4 home favorites have been 8-13 ATS.....Rams

Week 4 divisional home favorites with the lesser average per game scoring margin with less than 2 losses.......5-10 ATS....Rams, Chargers

Week 4 non-divisional home favorites with the less average per game scoring margin with less than 2 losses....17-10.....Cowboys

A home favorite in week 4 that has one more loss than their opponent 13-26 ATS.....Cowboys, Chargers

An away dog that in week 4 that has one more loss than their opponent 44-32 ATS....Texans, Colts, Lions, Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens

If our play on team has zero wins....15-4 ATS  Colts, Lions

if they have one win.....22-17 ATS.....Texans, Seahawks Steelers

If they have two wins....7-11 ATS....Ravens

Continuing on from above post....

An away dog that in week 4 that has one more loss than their opponent has been 44-32 ATS....Texans, Colts, Lions, Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens

If our play on team has zero or one  win....37-21  ATS  Colts, Lions, Texans, Seahawks, Steelers

If their next week line is stronger than their opponent's next week line......15-4 ATS....Colts, Seahawks

Seahawks' lookahead line is +1 at home to Rams and 49ers is +2' at Arizona.

Colts' lookahead line is +6' at Baltimore and the Dolphins' line is +9' at the Bucs.

AD and week=4 and t:losses-o:losses=1 and t:wins<2 and n:line<on:line

From above.......

AD and week=4 and t:losses-o:losses=1 and t:wins<2 and n:line<on:line

Adding that they've lost their last road game......13-2 +(9.9), 10-5 straight up (+4.67)......Colts, Seahawks

AD and week=4 and t:losses-o:losses=1 and t:wins<2 and n:line<on:line and tS(W@A, N=1)=0

Plays.....

Adding:

6)  Colts +2

_________________

*  Denotes contest play

*  5)  Texans +16'

*  4)  Seahawks +3

*  3)  Cardinals +4'

*  2)  Vikings +2

*  1)  Falcons +1'

__________________________

CFL 

1)   Bombers OVER 52

2)  Riders OVER 49

Indy, SDQL3 is not too bad. It doesn’t look as good as the previous database and I doubt CFL and WNBA will ever be added unfortunately. I’m still getting used to it but you can still use the old queries you have but sometimes you need to write the full code rather than the shortcuts such as WP. Some shortcuts haven’t been added and as they slowly migrate across to SDQL3, only some databases are there. They are updating NFL and college football at the moment and will do NBA shortly. 

go to this site www.s3.sportsdatase.com

Then you select NFL 

The first part of your query is the part where you need to add what kind of data you want to see.

I just copy and paste this

Record((points-o:points)) as ‘Record’,Record((points-o:points+line)) as ‘ATS Record’,Record((points+o:points-total)) as ‘OU Record’,date,season,site,team,o:team,points,o:points,week,line,total,margin,ats margin,ats margin>0@

Then after the @ sign you can type your own old query. Something just like AD and line>5

Hope that helps. 

Aussie, I appreciate the heads-up.

I's like someone  deliberately threw an explosive into the middle of the whole database and now it works at 50% of what it was and only for selected sports

Einstein said, "Make things as simple as possible, but no simpler."

Well, it's gotten quite a bit more complicated AND less functional than before.

It was brilliant and Joe was brilliant in making it as simple as possible for non-computer geeks....now it is looking like he's deliberately wrecked it to prove his brilliance.

Whatever......I said for quite awhile that he should be charging for it, and perhaps he threw up his hands in the end and said it wasn't worth his while.

I am back in Oz to Perth today....after quarantine I start work in two weeks, feeling like the USA is very broken and don't know if/when I'll return.

Love the Bombers over.  I think we should see 55-60 points in this one.  

Over had no chance.  Lions couldn't capitalize on their chances.  Brutal game by them, I expected better after the Sask loss.  Oh well, on to tomorrow

Indigo999 said, "Because killersports now no longer displays the indicated games"

I started a topic about this in the NFL forum since I think I found a solution:

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/generating-current-matchups-with-sdql-103566416

You got more than I got, nothing on the ats just point-o:points o/u

Houston we have a loser.

1)  Bombers OVER 52 loser

2)  Riders OVER 49

Adding:

3)  Alouettes +125

Adding:

4)  Riders -2'

Go Vernon!

Go Alouettes!

Down 3 offensive linemen,.driving, with 3 minutes left, down four points, ja, let's do it!

I missed your Al's play.  Wish Pinny had in game wagering would have bet then down 17-3. 

Wow, you got Pinny?....that is nice!

Game doesn't really start until 3 minutes are left....20-20, going to OT.

2)  Alouettes +125 winner

1)  Lions OVER loser

3)  Riders -2' 

4)  Riders OVER 49

Can't believe how many unders in CFL this year.  I think from now on it's under or nothing. It's insane how these offences can't put up points.  I remember when CFL games were scorefests with 50-60 points the norm.  

Get em next week.