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Fa King week 5 already?

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Posted: #1
Wow when football arrives my world speeds up.


No lines this week yet so I could be hypocritical, but here are my takes.

Alouettes
I do not like Ottawa this year and as it looks they should be favored again.  I dont like the Alouettes coming of the upset to Calgary, but I really like the way the Alouettes play.  Alouettes are not a fun team to watch, but they can cover spreads.


Hamilton
 I am not going to go into it too much, but I am probably back on them this week.  Only if the books do what I think they are going to do and increase the line.

Winnipeg
  BC was given last weeks cover and will be laying points o a team hat is trending strong.  Winnipeg has been an awesome dog recently and I expect that to continue this week.  BC is not going to given this game, they will have to earn it.  If BC plays like they did in the first 26 minutes of the game last week this will be a dog win.

Saskatchewan
    Don't sleep on them they are scoring.  I am expecting a certain line before I take them.  Calgary is on my fade list.  Lets see what the line is.  Lots of points in the Riders games and if the total is high enough I am looking to play an under.

Ottawa 
   Didn't I just say I dont like this team?  I just hate the Argo's laying points more.  Ottawa is trending right as dogs as well.  I hope Ottawa plays a horrible game Wednesday.  That could give me an extra point or to on the line.


Recap:

Montreal

Hamilton

Winnipeg

Saskatchewan and Under

Ottawa

ATS record  11-8 (Hamilton cost me 2 losses last week)

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Posted: #2
Lol funny title 
 
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Recap:

Montreal +3.5 1 unit 

Hamilton no bet half unit Edmonton -3

Winnipeg +8.5 2 units

Saskatchewan +11.5 1 unit  and Under ( I should get a better # than the current 57.5)

Ottawa pass waiting the line is close to pickem and if Ottawa plays well Thursday I  may pass or switch to the Argos.

===========

Montreal +3.5  1 unit
Winnipeg +8.5 2 units
Riders +11.5 1 unit 
Edmonton -3 half unit

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Posted: #5
I love the lines this week and I agree on all your picks. Gl to both of us
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by freakyfreddies:

I love the lines this week and I agree on all your picks. Gl to both of us

cool Lets Win 
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Posted: #7
GL Spottie
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks again Brasco
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Posted: #9
Edmonton first time on the road in almost a month. NOt like edmonton have blown the doors off anyone to get to 3-0, all close games to BC, Mont and OTT. That line is super fishy, 

Hamilton had prepared for Jennings and when he went out Lulay lit them up that happens.

BC at home spotting more than 6 is crazy.

gl this week Spottie
 
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Posted: #10
Wednesday 

Alouettes +4 

over 49

Ottawa is with the better QB.

Sutton is out but they should still be able to run. 

Durrant can play and will toss the rock around.  Yea okay sometimes to the other team, but that should help the over.  

Ottawa is a team that has difficulty when they are laying more than 3.  They play close games and rely on their offense to carry them.  
They made the grey cup last year by beating the very weak East and a piss poor Edmonton D.  Win or lose this one I have them falling back.  Toronto and Montreal are rising.  The East is going to be difficult to predict. 

I feel like an Ottawa play is better on Monday getting points from the Argo's, not laying 4 here to the Al's
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Powerz:

Edmonton first time on the road in almost a month. NOt like edmonton have blown the doors off anyone to get to 3-0, all close games to BC, Mont and OTT. That line is super fishy, 

Hamilton had prepared for Jennings and when he went out Lulay lit them up that happens.

BC at home spotting more than 6 is crazy.

gl this week Spottie

Thanks Powers.  You have a good handle on things.

I agree Edmonton has not shown much but until I see more Hamilton I am not buying.  I feel like Edmonton can show up and finally get a cover.  Bowman is out but he has been inconsistent this year.  
Fade Hamilton until they are getting more points.  Looks to me +3 at home is not enough.  

Good luck this week 
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Posted: #12
11-10 

lost both tonight.   missed extra points hurt.  hopefully I get that one back at a latter date.
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Posted: #13
Good luck buddy
I didn't even watch the game yesterday but will watch the Eskimos game tonight 
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #15
Edmonton -3 and over 52.5
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12-10-1 


recap
Winnipeg +8.5 -118
Under 56

I still like Winnipeg at +4 but it is more risk.

Some matchup trends

Since 2015 the Bombers have covered 5 in a row in the series.  In my opinion that is because of a few key factors.  In 2015 the Lions were not very strong.  In 2016 the Bombers and Leos didn't play until Nichols was the QB.  

Bombers are 14-7-2 ATS in the series dating back to 2007.

Non- playoff road games the Bombers are 8-2-1 ATS in BC.  If the line is below +7 they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in BC. since 2007.

None of these trends are enough to base a strong play on the underdog Bombers, but I like my line and the Bombers are playing very well as underdogs 12-5 ATS.  Against the best teams Stampeders Eskimos and Lions they are 8-4 as underdogs.  


With Nichols and their history of covering a high % in tough situations.  I like the points with the Bombers.


====

As far as the Under I like unders in this match up as the under cashes at a 9-2 clip when playing in BC.  56 is the highest line in their history, so again that gives a lot of cushion.  

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Posted: #17
Line i got at 5Dimes
B,C, -4 / 55...............1St H B.C.-2.5 / 27.5
Cal -10.5 / 55.5
Tor -2 / 54.5
 
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Posted: #18
Wow you got a nice line on the peg +8.5
Now down to +4 but I'm still leaning Wpg 
        
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Posted: #19
Down early and lots of majors.  The under is dead money but hopefully Nichols can play at a high level and keep pace.  The BC offense is for real and one more stud WR on the way.
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Posted: #20
more fa king weird CFL sh it.  lucky but i will take it
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Posted: #21
I have Ott +3 at plus money and money line 

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Posted: #22
Tonight's facts

This is Ottawa's 6th game.  3rd game since July 14th

This is Toronto's 5th game.  They are on 10 days rest.

Last meeting Ottawa was coming off of back to game games against Calgary covering both those contests.  

Ottawa rushes the ball A lot more for a better average per attempt. Harris has 10 TD and 2 int's.

Ray has 4&3. 

Ottawa's schedule has been much more difficult.

People are betting Toronto at 69%.  I assume because of the rest angle.  I agree with it to a point.  Toronto has a huge advantage rest wise, but they are not the better team so far.  Their offenses are not close to compare.  

In my opinion Ottawa is an Elite Eastern team and Toronto is a work in progress.  The Argo's have been horrible covering spreads. They do not deserve to be laying points.  I don't care about the rest, you are going to see a terrible and inconsistent  Argo effort here in what should be a good spot to get a win. 


 In 5 days the Argo's will be dogs in Saskatchewan and get they will win and cover against a team they can and will beat.

Argo's laying points with 6 less TD's passes more interceptions.  35 less rushing attempts, Ottawa rushing yards =323 while Argo rushing yards =132.  Yes Ottawa had played 1 more game, but that does not put the teams equal.  Not even close.

I like my chances with the better team with no rest but getting 3 points.
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Posted: #23
I am 14-12 posted and up just under 2 units.  

2 unit play tonight 

Ottawa +3 1 unit 

+135 1 unit
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Posted: #24
GL tonight sir, hope it gets there for you
 
 
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Posted: #25
thanks Sharky
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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