Record season-to-date 4-5-1 +0.3 units
I went 0-4 on my preseason NFL picks....lesson learned.
Nathan Rourke obviously had a very rough day, and the Bombers suddenly look invincible on defense. The Lions were made second favorites to win the Grey Cup and that does not look like reality right now, as both their offensive and defensive lines look very bad.
Kelly will come back to the Argos....I expect him to have a Deshaun Watson type rest of his career in the CFL...perhaps he'll start on Thursday....and I doubt he'll have a good game.
The Elks look like they'll beat out a couple of teams to make the playoffs, though their defense is not good enough....I will take them against the Alouettes if Tre Ford is the starter. Both Powell and Alexander look better than the long-time starters for the Tiger Cats and Alouettes and possibly Masoli could be that guy for the Redblacks as well.
After a couple of very mediocre seasons, the CFL is back to being a very interesting, fun league...July and August are typically underdog months, before favorites become more dominant toward the end of the season.
The Bombers look again to be an awesome force, as they have been for the past few years.....if Bo Levi starts for the Tiger Cats we will be on Winnipeg.
My lines are not based on what the bookmakers think the strengths of the teams are, but of my own.
Argos pik 51 Sasquatches
Bombers -12 47 Tiger Cats
Redblacks -3 46 Lions
Alouettes -7 52 Elks
Angles
a) An away non-divisional dog of less than 7 points in August that lost at home the previous game....16-4 ATS (+6.62), 12-7-1 straight up, 4-16 o/u....ON Roughriders
b) An away non-divisional dog that rushes for more yards than their opponent...288-85-4 ATS, 77.2% (+8.4).....the Elks for three games now have had a dominant running game, as their offensive line has played very well, though I am not so sure of them doing so against the Alouettes unless Tre Ford plays.... running dogs do well on the road regardless of whether it is the NCAA, NFL or CFL.....just take a look at Lamar Jackson's road record in the NFL. As long as Ford is quarterbacking, we'll look to back the Elks on the road and also play them to go OVER the total.....ON Elks and OVER.
c) Home dogs that are off an away win have done poorly in the history of the CFL....the line of the Redblacks game is off quite substantially and probably will be favorites by game time. The Eastern Division for the first time in recent memory is better than the West, which I am not sure if the bookmakers have caught on to that fact. I want to see where this line is going before I decide if I'll make a play....leaning hard on Redblacks despite what my database says.
Play:
1) Roughriders +120, 1 unit
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