a) A home team who has lost at least their previous two games in a row in a divisional game in the first of a back-to-back who out of their last three games has won less of those than what their present opponent has won out of their past three games......12-2 ATS (+9.5), 10-4 (+8.7).....ON Roughriders
Besides the angle I like the matchup, as the Riders' defense against the run is stout, and for the Bombers that is pretty much all they do this year.
Also, Bombers had two offensive linemen go down versus the Cats and were down to their last guy on the offensive line.
It's basically now or never for the Riders, and the prospects of having to go to Winnipeg the following week off a loss to the same team would be an overwhelming negative that they would not recover from.
H and n:playoffs=0 and no:team=o:team and streak<-1 and DIV and tS(W, N=3)-oS(W, N=3)<0
Plays:
1) Roughriders -2.5.....1.5 units
Will almost certainly play the Elks if Ford starts and will probably pass if he sits out.
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angles....
a) A home team who has lost at least their previous two games in a row in a divisional game in the first of a back-to-back who out of their last three games has won less of those than what their present opponent has won out of their past three games......12-2 ATS (+9.5), 10-4 (+8.7).....ON Roughriders
Besides the angle I like the matchup, as the Riders' defense against the run is stout, and for the Bombers that is pretty much all they do this year.
Also, Bombers had two offensive linemen go down versus the Cats and were down to their last guy on the offensive line.
It's basically now or never for the Riders, and the prospects of having to go to Winnipeg the following week off a loss to the same team would be an overwhelming negative that they would not recover from.
H and n:playoffs=0 and no:team=o:team and streak<-1 and DIV and tS(W, N=3)-oS(W, N=3)<0
Plays:
1) Roughriders -2.5.....1.5 units
Will almost certainly play the Elks if Ford starts and will probably pass if he sits out.
b) An away divisional dog of less than 7 points after week 12 that is playing the same opponent two weeks in a row, off a loss.......9-1 ATS (+5.2), 5-5 straight up (+1.4)......ON Elks
AD and DIV and o:team=no:team and p:L and week>12 and line<7 and playoffs=0
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b) An away divisional dog of less than 7 points after week 12 that is playing the same opponent two weeks in a row, off a loss.......9-1 ATS (+5.2), 5-5 straight up (+1.4)......ON Elks
AD and DIV and o:team=no:team and p:L and week>12 and line<7 and playoffs=0
c) Away divisional dogs of less than 7 points that outrush their opponents have gone 117-36-2 ATS, 76.5% (+8.5), 99-56 straight up (+4.5), 63.9%......if they are on the first leg of an away-home series with the same opponent (back-to-back) this moves to 19-5-1 ATS.
There is a high likelihood that Edmonton outrushes the Stamps in their matchup.
On the other hand teams in the above situation that get outrushed have gone 5-16 ATS, 3-18 straight up (-10.1). which I feel will take place in the Riders/Bombers game, though not as cut-and-dried as the Elks/Stamps.
Rushing and defense will win you games at home, and a quarterback has to win you games for your team on the road. I will watch with interest to see Zach Collaros go up against a top defense in the Riders on the road.
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Average rushing stats season-to-date
Team Rush yards Rush yards allowed
Bombers 113/game 107/game
Riders 83/game 75/game
Elks 110/game 98/game
Stamps 91/game 109/game
c) Away divisional dogs of less than 7 points that outrush their opponents have gone 117-36-2 ATS, 76.5% (+8.5), 99-56 straight up (+4.5), 63.9%......if they are on the first leg of an away-home series with the same opponent (back-to-back) this moves to 19-5-1 ATS.
There is a high likelihood that Edmonton outrushes the Stamps in their matchup.
On the other hand teams in the above situation that get outrushed have gone 5-16 ATS, 3-18 straight up (-10.1). which I feel will take place in the Riders/Bombers game, though not as cut-and-dried as the Elks/Stamps.
Rushing and defense will win you games at home, and a quarterback has to win you games for your team on the road. I will watch with interest to see Zach Collaros go up against a top defense in the Riders on the road.
c) A home divisional underdog of 7 or less points that lost an away game their previous game and before that they lost at home in September/August 15-7 ATS (+4.5), 10-12 straight up (+0.2). This moves to 9-4 ATS (+3.3), 5-8 straight up (-1.2) if their opponent has a winning percentage over 500.......ON Tiger Cats
HD and p:AL and pp:HL and 10>month>7 and DIV and line<=7
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c) A home divisional underdog of 7 or less points that lost an away game their previous game and before that they lost at home in September/August 15-7 ATS (+4.5), 10-12 straight up (+0.2). This moves to 9-4 ATS (+3.3), 5-8 straight up (-1.2) if their opponent has a winning percentage over 500.......ON Tiger Cats
HD and p:AL and pp:HL and 10>month>7 and DIV and line<=7
Ja, thought the Als might get the cover in the last quarter for us. Was more impressed with Edmonton than the Als. Think maybe both the Redblacks and the Argos will be better teams the rest of the way than the Als. Think the Alouettes struggle the rest of the season and into the playoffs.
I've seen this numerous times that a dominant regular season team doesn't continue through in the playoffs, which happened last year with the Argonauts.....granted it was Fajardo's first game back yesterday and his completion percentage is excellent, but I think Alexander is the more galvanizing force on the field than Fajardo for the Alouettes. Of course teams wouldn't put a rookie into the fire during the playoffs, but this to me is very similar to the Alex Smith situation in Kansas City when KC was an excellent team with him, but Mahomes was sitting on the bench, waiting in the wings. KC smartly traded Alex Smith after Mahomes' rookie season and let Mahomes take over in his second year.
All of the backups....Powell for the Tiger Cats, Ford for the Elks and Alexander for the Als I believe are better than the starters.
Ford for the Elks it is blatantly obvious, and perhaps not as obvious to many is that the other two guys are better than the starters also.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tiger Pat:
@Indigo999 Thanks For all. Wild mtl/edm game.
Ja, thought the Als might get the cover in the last quarter for us. Was more impressed with Edmonton than the Als. Think maybe both the Redblacks and the Argos will be better teams the rest of the way than the Als. Think the Alouettes struggle the rest of the season and into the playoffs.
I've seen this numerous times that a dominant regular season team doesn't continue through in the playoffs, which happened last year with the Argonauts.....granted it was Fajardo's first game back yesterday and his completion percentage is excellent, but I think Alexander is the more galvanizing force on the field than Fajardo for the Alouettes. Of course teams wouldn't put a rookie into the fire during the playoffs, but this to me is very similar to the Alex Smith situation in Kansas City when KC was an excellent team with him, but Mahomes was sitting on the bench, waiting in the wings. KC smartly traded Alex Smith after Mahomes' rookie season and let Mahomes take over in his second year.
All of the backups....Powell for the Tiger Cats, Ford for the Elks and Alexander for the Als I believe are better than the starters.
Ford for the Elks it is blatantly obvious, and perhaps not as obvious to many is that the other two guys are better than the starters also.
Alouettes play on the road in weeks 16 and 17 to Ottawa and Toronto and then play the Redblacks at home the week after, and I would not be surprised if the Als lose a couple of those games. They also play the Lions twice and I expect one or both of the two Lions quarterbacks to start lifting his team.....perhaps as early as this week against the Redblacks.
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Alouettes play on the road in weeks 16 and 17 to Ottawa and Toronto and then play the Redblacks at home the week after, and I would not be surprised if the Als lose a couple of those games. They also play the Lions twice and I expect one or both of the two Lions quarterbacks to start lifting his team.....perhaps as early as this week against the Redblacks.
d) A home non-divisional favorite that lost to the same team on the road their previous game, in September or later.....7-3 ATS (+10.8), 8-2 straight up (+15.9)......ON Lions
HF and p:AL and o:team=po:team and not DIV and month>8
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d) A home non-divisional favorite that lost to the same team on the road their previous game, in September or later.....7-3 ATS (+10.8), 8-2 straight up (+15.9)......ON Lions
HF and p:AL and o:team=po:team and not DIV and month>8
d) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points in a back-to-back situation who has a positive rushing/game differential where their present opponent also has a positive rushing differential.....2-7 ATS (-2.3), 1-8 straight up (-6.7) ......VERSUS Bombers
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d) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points in a back-to-back situation who has a positive rushing/game differential where their present opponent also has a positive rushing differential.....2-7 ATS (-2.3), 1-8 straight up (-6.7) ......VERSUS Bombers
e) Here is an angle that is food for thought. A game 1 NCAA home favorite that rushes for less than 130 yards covers 24% of the time...56-174-2 ATS (-8.9), 66-128-4 o/u (-4.5)....they win by an average of 7.3 points/game with an average line of -16.3....Hawaii, about a 40 point favorite, never came close to covering last weekend.
game number=1 and RY<130 and HF
Here are some this weeks home favorites teams' average rushing stats from last year...
1) Colorado 69 yards/game
2) Hawaii 76
3) South Carolina 85
4) Michigan State 90....(I expect this to improve with Smith now as the head coach)
5) Pittsburgh 102
6) Northwestern 102
7) Maryland 108
8) Arizona State 111
9) Indiana 120
10) Illinois 126
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Obviously college football season is starting.
e) Here is an angle that is food for thought. A game 1 NCAA home favorite that rushes for less than 130 yards covers 24% of the time...56-174-2 ATS (-8.9), 66-128-4 o/u (-4.5)....they win by an average of 7.3 points/game with an average line of -16.3....Hawaii, about a 40 point favorite, never came close to covering last weekend.
game number=1 and RY<130 and HF
Here are some this weeks home favorites teams' average rushing stats from last year...
1) Colorado 69 yards/game
2) Hawaii 76
3) South Carolina 85
4) Michigan State 90....(I expect this to improve with Smith now as the head coach)
f) A CFL home non-divisional favorite than will be a dog their next game versus a team that will be favored.....70-128-4 ATS (-4.3), 107-94-1 (-0.4) straight up.....VERSUS Lions.
If we add the parameters that this is non-divisional game and the line is less than -7, this moves to 26-49-1 (-3.7), 36-40 SU (-0.1),..........11-28 ATS if after week 9.
BC will be a dog next week at Montreal and the Redblacks will be favored at home versus the Argos
68% of the public is on the Lions at this time according to the KOC contest....so we also have a case of reverse line movement.
HF and n:D and n:playoffs=0 and on:F and not DIV and line>-7 and week>9
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f) A CFL home non-divisional favorite than will be a dog their next game versus a team that will be favored.....70-128-4 ATS (-4.3), 107-94-1 (-0.4) straight up.....VERSUS Lions.
If we add the parameters that this is non-divisional game and the line is less than -7, this moves to 26-49-1 (-3.7), 36-40 SU (-0.1),..........11-28 ATS if after week 9.
BC will be a dog next week at Montreal and the Redblacks will be favored at home versus the Argos
68% of the public is on the Lions at this time according to the KOC contest....so we also have a case of reverse line movement.
HF and n:D and n:playoffs=0 and on:F and not DIV and line>-7 and week>9
g) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points that has a winning percentage below 500, playing the first of a back-to-back that will favored their next game.....10-2-1 ATS (+7.0)....ON Elks
h) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points whose present opponent will be underdogs their next two games....48-19-1 ATS (+7.2)......if this is the first of a back-to-back situation this moves to 9-0 ATS (+13.1), 6-3 straight up (+8.7).....ON Elks
Stamps will be underdogs next week at Edmonton and then to Montreal the following week.
AD and DIV and line<7 and on:D and onn:D and o:team=no:team
Adding:
2) Elks +3....1 unit
__________________________________
1) Roughriders -2'.....1.5 units
If Ford starts, this will be an OVER play in the Calgary/Edmonton game as well.
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g) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points that has a winning percentage below 500, playing the first of a back-to-back that will favored their next game.....10-2-1 ATS (+7.0)....ON Elks
h) A divisional away dog of less than 7 points whose present opponent will be underdogs their next two games....48-19-1 ATS (+7.2)......if this is the first of a back-to-back situation this moves to 9-0 ATS (+13.1), 6-3 straight up (+8.7).....ON Elks
Stamps will be underdogs next week at Edmonton and then to Montreal the following week.
AD and DIV and line<7 and on:D and onn:D and o:team=no:team
Adding:
2) Elks +3....1 unit
__________________________________
1) Roughriders -2'.....1.5 units
If Ford starts, this will be an OVER play in the Calgary/Edmonton game as well.
i have noticed that 6 is the magic number to break this streak in the nfl and cfl, from past years. i took ottawa last week, and won but it was an emotional one…
im sure acklin is out this saturday night.
It is still at -3,
ML at -180, ouch….
good luck and thanks for all your stats/trends.
i do like edm, hamilton and Sask aswell!
1
@Indigo999
Im feeling bc wins su this weekend.
they have lost 5 consecutive su and ats.
i have noticed that 6 is the magic number to break this streak in the nfl and cfl, from past years. i took ottawa last week, and won but it was an emotional one…
i) In doing research in the CFL database....home favorites of exactly 3 points have gone 21-40 ATS, 29-32 straight up....kinda weird....if they played and lost to the same team last week on the road, it's been 2-2 ATS/straight up. Bet365 has both Calgary and BC at -3 this week.
In games after June, eliminating Thursday games where the home team has between -3 and 3 more wins than losses, a home favorite of exactly 3 has been to 1-18-1 ATS (-11.8), 5-15 (-8.2) straight up, 7-13 o/u.
If the home favorite of exactly -3 is on at least a two game losing streak this moves to 0-4 SUATS.
HF and line=-3 and n:playoffs=0 and -3
Obviously this could be what is called in stock market research, "backfitting"........I'm biting.....after initially leaning Lions, we'll go along with the database, and if the Lions lose, we'll look to take them next week if we get a good number as away dogs in Montreal.
Adding:
3) Ottawa +135....1 unit
______________________
2) Roughriders -2'....1.5 units
1) Elks +3...............1 unit
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i) In doing research in the CFL database....home favorites of exactly 3 points have gone 21-40 ATS, 29-32 straight up....kinda weird....if they played and lost to the same team last week on the road, it's been 2-2 ATS/straight up. Bet365 has both Calgary and BC at -3 this week.
In games after June, eliminating Thursday games where the home team has between -3 and 3 more wins than losses, a home favorite of exactly 3 has been to 1-18-1 ATS (-11.8), 5-15 (-8.2) straight up, 7-13 o/u.
If the home favorite of exactly -3 is on at least a two game losing streak this moves to 0-4 SUATS.
HF and line=-3 and n:playoffs=0 and -3
Obviously this could be what is called in stock market research, "backfitting"........I'm biting.....after initially leaning Lions, we'll go along with the database, and if the Lions lose, we'll look to take them next week if we get a good number as away dogs in Montreal.
As far as 5 game losing streaks exactly go in the CFL....here are the results
As:
a) home favorites....4-2 SUATS
b) home dogs.......8-6-1 ATS, 5-10 straight up
c) away dogs.......6-12 ATS, 1-17 straight up
In non-divisional games they've gone 5-4 SUATS at home and 2-7 ATS, 0-9 straight up away......if they win to break a 5 game exactly losing streak (this week) they've gone 3-2 ATS the following week, but 0-5 straight up, losing by an average of 7 points......future line has Lions getting only 3.5 points next week.....we'd want to get at least 6 points.
If they lose, those teams have 8-4 ATS on the road the next week, though their margin in that game has been -12 points/game
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As far as 5 game losing streaks exactly go in the CFL....here are the results
As:
a) home favorites....4-2 SUATS
b) home dogs.......8-6-1 ATS, 5-10 straight up
c) away dogs.......6-12 ATS, 1-17 straight up
In non-divisional games they've gone 5-4 SUATS at home and 2-7 ATS, 0-9 straight up away......if they win to break a 5 game exactly losing streak (this week) they've gone 3-2 ATS the following week, but 0-5 straight up, losing by an average of 7 points......future line has Lions getting only 3.5 points next week.....we'd want to get at least 6 points.
If they lose, those teams have 8-4 ATS on the road the next week, though their margin in that game has been -12 points/game
I mixed up that research....let me go over it again.
A team that is was on a 5 game exactly losing streak, that loses again, has gone 17-10 ATS their next game in the CFL......9-4 away, 2-11 SU (-9.92), 8-6 ATS at home, 6-8 straight up.
If they win to break a 5 game losing streak they've gone 3-3 ATS on the road, 1-1-1 at home.
Teams off a back-to-back series (they've played the same opponent twice in a row), have gone as a 66-76 ATS on the road in their next game with a line of between -6 and 6 points....the Bombers, Roughriders, and Lions all will be on the road after their home and away series is completed and should fit the line requirement parameter.
Those off a back-to-back playing their next game at home with a line between -6 and 6 points have gone only 27-46 ATS, 20-35-1 ATS after July, which will include the Redblacks, Elks and Stampeders. If those teams are playing with 9 or more days rest this moves to 1-6 SU/ATS at home....VERSUS Elks at home against the Bombers
If those home teams off a back-to-back are playing a team that is not off a back-to-back series themselves this moves to 15-32-1 ATS if the line is between -6 and 6 points, 9-22-1 ATS after July, 4-14 ATS as home favorites of less than 6 points......going versus the Redblacks next week (playing the Argos) and Stamps (playing the Alouettes) in two weeks in this looks plausible, especially if either team is off a win.....Redblacks have not lost at home this season yet, and Stamps have lost only once at home.
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I mixed up that research....let me go over it again.
A team that is was on a 5 game exactly losing streak, that loses again, has gone 17-10 ATS their next game in the CFL......9-4 away, 2-11 SU (-9.92), 8-6 ATS at home, 6-8 straight up.
If they win to break a 5 game losing streak they've gone 3-3 ATS on the road, 1-1-1 at home.
Teams off a back-to-back series (they've played the same opponent twice in a row), have gone as a 66-76 ATS on the road in their next game with a line of between -6 and 6 points....the Bombers, Roughriders, and Lions all will be on the road after their home and away series is completed and should fit the line requirement parameter.
Those off a back-to-back playing their next game at home with a line between -6 and 6 points have gone only 27-46 ATS, 20-35-1 ATS after July, which will include the Redblacks, Elks and Stampeders. If those teams are playing with 9 or more days rest this moves to 1-6 SU/ATS at home....VERSUS Elks at home against the Bombers
If those home teams off a back-to-back are playing a team that is not off a back-to-back series themselves this moves to 15-32-1 ATS if the line is between -6 and 6 points, 9-22-1 ATS after July, 4-14 ATS as home favorites of less than 6 points......going versus the Redblacks next week (playing the Argos) and Stamps (playing the Alouettes) in two weeks in this looks plausible, especially if either team is off a win.....Redblacks have not lost at home this season yet, and Stamps have lost only once at home.
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