Indigo week 5

Our online database is history as of this week, so we'll get the research out of the way early.

          Indigo lines                   early sportsbook lines

1)    Ottawa           +5'  37         Ottawa    +3 44'    Alouettes

2)    Saskatchewan  -4   40         Riders      -2' 42'    Bombers  

3)    Hamilton         pik  43         Tiger Cats -3 42'     Argos

4)    Calgary            -6  43         Stamps     -3 40'     Elks

Ottawa is absolutely unbackable at this stage, and the bookies will have to make their line look very attractive for anyone to be interested in them....I highly doubt they'll only be +3 by game time.  Stamps look like they are a "play on" for the foreseeable future.  Their qb is gonna be great...this will be the beginning of the end for both Masoli and Bo Levi Mitchell's careers.

Week 5 home favorites that have a winning percentage Under 500....5-1 ATS....Tiger Cats if they are home favorites, Stamps

Week 5, 6 away divisional dogs that have already played three home games...10-6 ATS, 4-12 UNDER....Bombers

Game number<8 away dogs with the greater number of losses than their opponent 50-34 ATS.....Bombers

Game numbers 5, 6 or 7 away dogs with one less loss than their opponent....2-9 ATS.....VERSUS Argos (if dog) and VERSUS Elks

A week <7 home divisional team that won two games ago and lost their last game...9-17 ATS....VERSUS Stamps

Weeks 2-5, an away divisional favorite....17-8 ATS, 7-18 UNDER.....

average line/total -3', 52'

average score 28.1-17.4

Alouettes, (Argos if away favorites)

An away divisional team with the better average scoring margin before week 7 with a total under 50.....15-2 ATS.....Argos, Alouettes

Away divisional dogs before week 7 that won less than 7 games the season prior....20-9 ATS, 11-18 o/u

4-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER if the total is less than 50....Argos

A week 5 or 6 away divisional dog that played in at least two playoff games the season prior....2-8 ATS...VERSUS Elks

An away divisional dog with the better record, whose past season they had a worse record, in weeks 5-11......................... 4-12 ATS....VERSUS Argos (if away dog)

12>week>4 and AD, AF and tA(W)>oA(W) and PRSW<o:PRSW and DIV

Teams that missed the playoffs last season (Redblacks, Argos, Lions) as away divisional dogs have been 15-5 ATS in weeks 1-4...after that in weeks 5-8, they have been 5-11 ATS, so there is some reversion to the mean.

Away  dogs past week 3 playing an unbeaten foe have been 14-5 ATS, 7-13 o/u, if this is a divisional game this moves to 6-1 ATS, 4-3 straight up.....Bombers

week>3 and AD  and o:losses=0

Early leans.....Stamps, Tiger Cats. UNDER Redblacks

Teams that missed the playoffs last season (Redblacks, Argos, Lions) as away divisional dogs have been 15-5 ATS in weeks 1-4...after that in weeks 5-8, they have been 5-11 ATS, so there is some reversion to the mean.

Away  dogs past week 3 playing an unbeaten foe have been 14-5 ATS, 7-13 o/u, if this is a divisional game this moves to 6-1 ATS, 4-3 straight up.....Bombers

week>3 and AD  and o:losses=0

Teams averaging less than 17 points/game in weeks 2-8 in divisional games have been 12-11 ATS, 19-5 OVER .....Tiger Cats, Redblacks, Elks....12-2 OVER if the total is less than 50.

tA(points)<17 and HF, HD, AF, AD and week<10 and DIV

Games will start going OVER, some time soon

An away divisional dog with a winning record in weeks 4-10, with a positive average scoring differential has been 21-8 ATS.......Argos, Bombers.......

Those teams have been 16-2 ATS if that team has the better defense on a points per game basis....Bombers

tA(W) > .5 and AD and 10>week>3 and DIV and tA(margin)>0 and tA(o:points)<oA(o:points)

Monday away divisional teams with a better than .500 record....7-13 ATS, 5-15 O/U......VERSUS Argos

Much opposing information on the Argos/Cats game....that is the game I most am looking forward to seeing.

Home divisional favorites with the lesser win percentage weeks 5-9.....14-7 ATS, 8-13 o/u

Tiger Cats, Stamps

Home divisional dogs where their opponent has a losing record before week 9......12-21 ATS, 17-15 o/u

VERSUS Redblacks

odds are out

montreal -3.5

sask -4

hamilton -3.5

Calgary -3

Thanks Freddie

Plays:

1)  Argos +3'

2)  Stamps -3'

3)  Alouettes -3'

4)  Bombers +4

The Bombers fit into a 114-50 ATS angle as an away dog who will be favored their next two games.   If that away dog has the lesser winning percentage compared to their present opponent, this moves to 47-15 ATS, 75.8%.

The Betregal future line has the Bombers home dogs their next game versus the Riders, which is incorrect as there is a difference of 6 points in the line between playing a team on the road and playing the same team at home. 

Calgary fits a 38-91 ATS (29.5%) angle where a home favorite will be a underdog their next two games...the Stamps will be dogs at Edmonton and then at Hamilton after their game versus Edmonton at home as home favorites this week.

HF and n:D and nn:D and nn:playoffs=0

Here is a similar angle favoring the Cardinals week 1 in the NFL.....

an away dog that will be favored their next two games versus a team that will be a dog in one of their next two games.  We stipulate that our play ON team won less than 9 games the prior season and also won less games than their present opponent the prior season. 

The Cards will be favored week 2 at home over the Vikings and week 3 on the road versus the Jags, while the Titans will be road dogs versus the Seahawks week 2 and then home favorites week three over the Colts.   

95-26 ATS

AD and nn:F and n:F and week<10 and PRSW<o:PRSW and opS(playoffs)>0 and PRSW<9 and (on:D or onn:D)

The last query should read..

AD and nn:F and n:F and week<10 and PRSW<o:PRSW  and PRSW<9 and (on:D or onn:D) and snf!=1

95-26 ATS (+7.23)

Here is a 96-34 ATS NFL angle whose criteria is met in the Eagles/Falcons game.

An away dog, whose line will be the stronger line in their following game compared to their present opponent's line and who present opponent will be underdogs the next two games.

The Eagles' lookahead line week 2 is +4 and the Falcons' is +8.  In week 3 the Falcons will be road dogs to the Giants and the Eagles also will be dogs.....we exclude Sunday night games.

ON Eagles

AD and n:line<on:line and onn:D and nn:D and week<5 and snf!=1

This angle moves to 47-10 ATS (+9.37) if we stipulate the next game our play ON team's line is at least 3 points stronger and our game is a non-divisional matchup.

AD and n:line-on:line<-3 and onn:D and nn:D and week<5 and snf!=1  and not DIV

Our Alouettes play is based on a angle I alluded to earlier.....

a)  We take a team off of two losses in a row and put them on the road 111-100 ATS.

b)  We make it a divisional game which brings this to 64-48 ATS.

c)  We make it before week 10....28-11 ATS.

d)  We make it that our team has underperformed offensively, scoring at least 7 points less  than expected their past two games......21-3 ATS (+9.98).....away favorites have been 8-0 ATS in this situation winning  by an average of 19 points/game.  If we take away the parameter that this game is before week 10, this has been 12-1-1 as away favorites, covering by over 10 points/game and winning by an average of 14 points.

p:L and pp:L and A  and DIV and week<10 and tS(dps, N=2)<-7 and AF, AD

These are Pinnacle’s lines. Which one(s) are playable?

Als -6

Winny +3’

Tor+2’

calgary -6

Hi Bluenoser....still like the Als, Bombers and I'd wait for a +3 with the Argos.....I'd leave the Stamps alone at that number.

Six games out of seven that there was a noted difference between the Indigo  line/total and Mister Bookmaker's line, the public has moved the line towards our  line away from the original bookmaker line.

That tells me that my lines are better and/or more accurate than whoever is making the  original CFL lines.

If any game total goes under, my guess is probably Montreal Ottawa game.  Both teams rank in bottom four in offensive yards per game.

In labor weekend, 3 of 4 games involve same teams meeting again next week.  Home teams tend to win straight up roughly 75% of the time.  Unsure about point spread though.

Adding:

5)  Redblacks/Alouettes UNDER 43

6)  Stamps/Elks OVER 42 ....yes I am a masochist, I know

7)  Tiger Cats/Argonauts OVER 44...expect these two teams to let 'er rip.

Teams averaging less than 17 points per game at home with a record below .500 before week 10 in divisional games have been 9-2  OVER.............Tiger Cats....(and Redblacks who I don't know if they can score more than 14 points) 

Teams averaging less than 17 points per game before week 10 on the road with a record <500 in divisional games have been 8-3 OVER, 7-0 OVER if the total is <50....Eskimos OVER

4)  Alouettes -3'

3)  Bombers +4

2)  Stamps -3'

1)  Argos +3'

Adding:

8)  Bombers/Sasquatches UNDER 43

The angle below has a 7-22 o/u record, 2-7 o/u if the total is <50

tpS(playoffs)>0 and opS(playoffs)>0 and AD and t:wins<o:wins and tA(W)>.5 and oA(W)>.5 and DIV 

College football, it's happening.

One tidbit....in September teams that have more rushing attempts than their opponents that are dogs of <10 cover 72.6% of the time.

In a team's first game this is how it breaks down....

As:

Home dogs <10 19-3 ATS (+7.55)  

Away dogs <10 33-13 ATS (5.64)

Home dogs >=10 10-7 ATS (-0.18)

Away dogs >=10 140-82 ATS (4.67)

The most likely teams to out rush attempt their opponent?....of course it is the military schools.

Let's see how each of the present coaches have performed as dogs excluding the games they played other military schools.

Navy's Niumatalolo

Home dog 7-9 ATS

Away dog 22-12 ATS......17-6 ATS in October/November/December

Army's Monken

Home dog 3-4 ATS

Away dogs 8-9 ATS.....8-4 ATS in September/October

Air Force's

Calhoun 

Home dogs 9-8 ATS

Away dogs 18-15 ATS.....16-6 ATS in September/October

Obviously, or maybe not to some, service academies don't do well as home dogs.

Army and Air Force have done very well early season as away dogs, and Navy has done very well as later in the  season away dogs.

If you or anyone else can know in advance who will attempt more rushes in a game, you are a genius, and you will win in college football betting,.....it is the Golden Goose that produces Golden Eggs.

Good luck this week!  Let’s get some positives vibes going to start the season