Posted:
#1
I have been avidly capping the NFL for close to 35 years and the CFL about 15-16 years now.
Totals has always been an interest of mine. I know many of our American frends who know of our game and prolly a good few Canadians believe this league to be an "AUTOMATIC" over but nothing could be furher from the truth.
In fact in the last 5 years the league has been playing to the UNDER at a very profitable rate.In 2012 and 2013 the CFL played to the under about 65 and 67.5 % respectively.
IT GETS BETTER.
Even with the crazy "rouge"-one point excuse the pun I'd love to see gone whereby the receiving team yields a point to the kicking team if they cannot come out of their own end zone on a punt, kick of FG attempt-in 2014 the linesmakers thought they had this UNDER run nipped knowing full well "sharp" CFL totals players were making a killing.
In fact early out of the gates that year one saw crazy low totals the likes of never seen in recent CFL years where the pencil sharpeners were cutting as much as 3 1/2 - 4 1/2 points off a game and they were still playing to the UNDER. Games that normally would have been pegged at 51 were taken down to 47.5/48 and many 53/54 reg. totals were posted at 50-51. I recall thinking I have never seen so many totals in the 40's in the CFL.
Guess what?
The league played to an unparalleled 73.4 % to the UNDER on the entire 2014 campaign. Perhaps due to rule changes or a regression back to the norm but 2015 saw totals set back to were we were used to seeing them. Yet the league still played to a 67.8 % UNDER all of last year!
Here we are in 2016 and I had noticed the league had played to 3-1 the last 5 weeks to the UNDER. I have been personally hammering many unders and it was interesting to note that the team with the best "D" in the league has played in the only OVER 3 weeks in a row as of last night's wild finish in B.C. 45-37 for the home team Lions who barely vanquished another unbelievable 2nd H Tabbie and Zach Colleros comeback. (It was literally a comeback for the veteran Ticat QB1 who had not played a game since SEPT.19TH 2015).
So I ran the #'s for the whole year being just past the 1/3 mark of the campaign and sure enough the UNDER is hitting at a 71.88% clip so far to date.
Most readers in here know what a 60% steady run will do with good bankroll management. Well you are looking at a perennial 5 year run that has held close to 70%!!
You know what to do when you hear the usual banter from our colleagues south of the 49th parallel lauding the automatic OVER that is the CFL.
Perception truly can be everything.....
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