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#1
3-1 last week, 17-10 ATS season-to-date.
Montreal in the midst of getting crushed,......they went off as a 59% pick in the KOC contest.....in the NCAA public dogs are at best a 50-50 play, which I'll start paying attention to in the CFL. I'll know better next time.
Hamilton still looks unbackable, though having June Jones should help their offense. Those in the know, has he been there the whole year or just recently? Perhaps they also will be going with Masoli into the future.
The top three teams, and it isn't close are the Bombers, Stamps and Eskimos. Of course things can change in a hurry in the CFL.
These are what I think the relative strength of the teams are.....I am not guessing what Vegas will put out.
Alouettes +3 Peggers 55
Edmonton -7 Green Riders 54
Redblacks +3- Lions 55
Stamps -7 Argos 55
Home non-divisional dogs have been 48-32 ATS in the regular season if they have a worse record than their present opponent.. Eastern division teams have been 35-29 ATS in this scenario.
However if our East team is below 500 and the line is less than 7 this moves to 20-20 ATS, 14-27 straight up.
Eastern team <500 and line<7,....if their opponent is off a:
1) home loss.......6-2 ATS Ottawa
2) home win...... 9-10 ATS Alouettes
Home favorites with a better year-to-date record than their opponent.....118-156-5 (43.1%) and 118-157-4 O/U......Stamps, Eskimos.
If our home favorite with a better record is playing a:
1) Divisional game 62-83-3 ATS (42.8%) and 64-83-1 O/U
(43.5%) Eskimos
2) Non-divisional game 56-73-2 ATS (43.4%) and 54-74-3 O/U
42.2% Stamps
Western division teams with a better record have performed much better than Eastern teams as home favorites going 80-87 ATS, so the real money to be made is fading Eastern division teams as favorites.
Home teams have been 15-20 and 17-18 O/U this season, so the CFL home production, or lack of has stayed pretty stable...however the last two years OVERs have been 57-58 O/U so the bookmakers have caught up to the long-term UNDER CFL trend.
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