Week 11 CFL

1-1 last week, 22-26 STD....pathetic season this year, I will have to avoid taking Ottawa, BC and Toronto the rest of the season, at least if they have covered their previous game.  None of those teams look remotely like they will improve, though BC have gone from abysmal to merely bad now.  Their offensive line looks a bit better, but I would have thought Claybrooks would have made their defense pretty good.  Yes, well, they aren't.

Indigo lines.........

Eskimos -3'    Bombers 49

To me it looked likely that Nichols suffered a separated shoulder or sprained AC joint and should be out for awhile....maybe it's fate as Shreveler is the future.  He'll make some very good plays with his legs and his heart for the game, but maybe he will not take care of the ball as well as Nichols has.  If he plays even average, then he will be the quarterback of this team for the next few years.  Eskimos defense has been the surprise of the CFL this year...they've been very very smart, tough and effective.  They are what I thought the Lions would be.  Larry Dean is a top 3 linebacker and they have other guys that are great too, particularly the front 4.  Eskimos dominated the yards gained the last game these two teams played and with a untested quarterback going against them, this should heavily favor the frozen ones.

Riders -10  Redblacks 48

Redblacks continue to sputter on offense and have to be quarterback shopping in the off-season.  Fajardo has played better than anticipated and has limited turnovers as well, which you wouldn't expect with a first year starter.  Riders' defense hasn't been as good as last year in my opinion, but their O has been light years over what its been with both the quarterbacking and the run game.  It's still anybody's race in the West between the top 4 team

Lions  +4 Tiger Cats  49

Well, the Lions might play better this week, but I won't be on them.  Tiger Cats have a huge advantage in both lines and if anyone even remotely slows down Burnham of the Lions the felines have absolutely no chance of generating an offense.  Tiger Cats well in control of their division and they deserve to be, though last week's game was probably a lucky win.

Argos +4   Alouettes 52

Well, the Als got a signature win over the league's dominant team the past few years.  Vernon got it done, though he looked pretty shaky at some points in the game, and this will give him and the rest of the team loads of confidence.  Off a win like that, you like to think they'd go on a roll, but against a division rival that is down and off a loss looks like a trap while the Als are off a huge upset win.....hmmm, probably not.  We'll see what line the bookies have for this one.

I have angles favoring Montreal, Winny, Ottawa and BC (eww!).....we'll see what transpires.

A heads up for the Toronto/Montreal game. It is being played in Moncton New Brunswick so no real advantage to either team, as it is not close to either.

Lines are out, as Spottie has observed, linemakers have gotten brave now.  

Here are the lines, mine in brackets.

1) Eskimos -6'   (-3')      Bombers   47'   (49)

2) Riders   -10  (-10)     Redblacks  49   (49)

3) Lions    +3'  (+3')     Tiger Cats 47'   (49)

4) Argos   +6    (+4)     Alouettes  54'   (52)

Thanks for the heads up Bluenoser on the location of the Argo/Als game.  In the seemingly never ending quest to get football into New Brunswick, they are playing a game there to see if there is sufficient interest.  I still say they should put a franchise in Fairbanks or Anchorage, Alaska, but what do I know?

Obviously whatever home field advantage the Argos would have had is negated....they don't get an advantage just because they wear home uniforms.

Plays:

1)   Bombers +

The line is moving up and when it hits 7 then it is an official play.  Bookmakers making an adjustment of at least 3 points for Nichols being out.  I think the Bombers are better by a field goal with Streveler.

2)  Redblacks +10

Redblacks better team on the road and off a loss.  I wouldn't even rush a quarterback like Fajardo, and take away his running game after he drops back.

3) Alouettes -6

They should pound this team, winning both the running game and the turnover battle.

Streveler is going to be just fine, even though he is half quarterback, half tailback, b/c accounting for a running quarterback is tough.  Who would you rather have Fajardo, or Trevor Harris?

Fajardo having a breakout year because no one has figured out how to defend him when he wants to run.  You basically have to tell your defensive linemen not to over-commit and rush too hard....well, that ain't happening because they get paid to produce sacks.

I think Streveler makes the Bombers even more lethal on offense and a better team than they were with Nichols as I mentioned earlier.  If I am Edmonton I have Larry Dean shadow him the whole game, which is he looks quite capable of doing....we'll see.

Obviously I am in the minority as the public is punishing the bookmakers for setting the line so low.  But, who usually gets the last laugh, the bookies or Joe Q. Public?

Due to my millions of fans around the world and the vast influence I have on bookmakers, the line that had crept up towards 7, has now moved back to 6'.

We'll take the 6'.

Play:  Bombers +6'

Plays:

4)  Eskimos/Bombers UNDER 47

5)  Riders/Redblacks UNDER 49

3)  Bombers +6'

2)  Redblacks +10

1)  Alouettes -6

Adding:

6)   Lions/Tiger Cats OVER 47

Sorry,correction....

6)  Lions OVER 48

This season has been poor for me, but one thing for the most part has happened this season, which is the lines are moving towards where I put them initially and/or are going towards the sides of my plays.

Normally, good line prognostication will lead to  a good winning percentage.....not this season.

We'll see if this weekend I'll get on track.

Bombers dominate the running game which translates to pointspread success.

1)  Bombers +6' win

2)  Bombers UNDER loss

Winnipeg 

Dont worry Indigo999 we are all doing bad lol Many teams are a surprise this year. I got lucky yesterday with Winnipeg on a parlay this week.

This is a very good query supporting the Redblacks and OVER today..... basically non-divisional dogs are good plays in the CFL and if an away dog have a smaller line next game versus a favorite that will be a dog or lesser favorite next game has been very good to this week’s dog.

D and not DIV and line-n:line>3 and on:line-o:line>3

60-27 ATS and 53-35 OVER

Play:

5)  Redblacks/Riders OVER 49

4)  Redblacks +10

3)  Lions OVER 48

2)  Bombers UNDER loser

1)  Bombers +6’ winner

We won’t dismiss the Bombers as not being a huge threat going forward as teams have been 295-89 ATS as dogs, and 622-275 ATS, 69.4% ATS, in total when winning the rushing yards battle, which they should do every game the rest of the season.

Away dogs cover about 42% of the games when they have been out-yarded, losing to the spread by an average of 5 points/game.

They have won straight up 21% of the time.

If you read my thread you will see I cancelled my UNDER play a couple of days ago.

And I apologize, I did not have it on my thread that I had cancelled my UNDER play in the Redblacks game....I thought that I had, so kudos for catching that.

All the best going firward.

Away dogs have been 67-32 ATS that were outyarded but that also outrushed their opponents, going 48-54 straight up.

Geez, Dominic Davis???!!! Grab a clue.....you know you're in trouble when you are hoping Jonathan Jennings will bring you back from a huge deficit.

Hmmm, Jennings made a play, and the Redblacks should be getting annihilated, or within a couple of scores.....Redblacks' defense actually has been good.

If I am Ottawa I throw at least 5 bombs in the second half and the Riders' are obviously playing for the short passing game.