Week 12 lines/thoughts

STD 31-18 ATS

                Indigo lines

Ottawa           -14  Montreal    56

Saskatchewan  -3' Winnipeg    52

Calgary           -9  Edmonton   54

Hamilton         -6'  Toronto     52

Calgary once again made big plays in crunch time.......total meltdown by Winnipeg at the end.   Winnipeg's Streveler will be the quarterback of the future for the Blue Bombers.....not this year, but in a year or two.  Normally GMs wait until it's a year too late to deal someone who has been a productive player for the franchise like a Matt Nichols....better to deal him  next off-season to a Toronto or a Saskatchewan a year too early, when you can get a ton of draft picks or players.  It is the Danny Ainge way to accrue picks/players for 3-4 years into the future, and the Celtics now are sitting pretty for the next 10 years for the deals he made in the recent past.

Toronto, Montreal wimped out when the game was on the line and played with the idea that either; a)  their kicker would make a 50 yard field goal with the game on the line in the last few seconds (Toronto) or b)  relying on the worst defense in the league to hold the opposition out of field goal range in the last two minutes (Montreal).  I am liking Mike Sherman less and less each week as a decision maker.   When you try not to lose a game you often will.

Saskatchewan is the only team that can challenge Calgary on a schematic, talent and/or coaching basis and it looks once again like the Stamps will run away with  regular season supremacy.   Gutty win for the Roughriders....they are still being overlooked by the bookmakers which is fine by me.  Zac is not elite like he once was, but he was above average, which is all the Sasquatches really need out of him.  

And Toronto getting Duron Carter?! 

When will they ever learn?

Three games this week where the home team, Calgary, Saskatchewan and Hamilton, will play the same team the following week at the other team's home venue.

When the home favorite has been favored by more than 6 points in this situation (Calgary and perhaps Hamilton) those teams have been 12-5 ATS (+5.32), and 15-2 straight up (+13.71) in the first of a back to back.

Three teams that will be home favorites this week, the Redblacks, the Tiger Cats and the Stampeders have the yards per passing attempt differential (offense yards/pass gained minus defensive yards/pass allowed) advantage.

The record of those teams ATS?   

86-113-6 ATS (-1.75), 43.2% and 133-71-1 (+4.66)

One team, the Blue Bombers has the YPPA advantage and will be away underdogs....what has the  record been of teams been with this advantage?

65-58-2 ATS  (0.16), 52.8%, and 51-73-1 O/U (-2.05)

Two teams will divisional home favorites and have the turnover margin advantage along with a better record, the Stampeders and the Redblacks

Teams  in the above scenario have been ....

a)  54-77-3 ATS (-2.22), 41.2%

b)  88-46 straight up (4.98) 65%

Two teams will be divisional away dogs with the average/game turnover margin advantage (the Blue Bombers and the Argonauts).  If this team is an away divisional dog and has a worse winning percentage the results have been:

a)  28-19 ATS, (-0.30) , 59.6% 

b)  15-35 straight up (-6.94), 30%

DIV and HF and p:W and tA(ats margin)>3  and tA(W)>oA(W) 

A divisional home favorite off a win, that has an average against the spread covering margin/game of greater than 3 and has a better winning percentage  ........Stampeders and Roughriders

12-31-5 ATS  (-2.60), 29.5%

31-17 straight up (+5.46) 

Past records against the spread (regular season)

a)  As home divisional favorites

Redblacks     4-8 ATS

Roughriders 12-23 

Tiger Cats    14-19 

Stampeders 29-22 

Past records as away divisional dogs

Argos       21-17 ATS

Alouettes  15-11

Bombers   29-21

Eskimos    24-23

The Greek's opening lines...Indigo's in brackets.

Ottawa            -13  (-14)    Montreal     51'   (56)

Saskatchewan   -3    (-3')    Winnipeg    54'   (52)

Calgary             -6'   (-9)     Edmonton   54   (54)

Hamilton           -7'  (-6')      Toronto      52   (52)

Obvious differences in the total being 4' points off of mine in the Ottawa/Montreal game, and Calgary only being -6' points, rather than -9.  We'll let this sink into our brain awhile before commenting further.

Plays:

1)  Calgary -7

Despite all the negative SDQL stuff going against Calgary listed above, home favorites in the first of a back to back situation negates the yards per pass differential advanatage that we usually wish to fade, as well as the turnover advantage.  We rarely  ride the public, but this is such as time.  I've mentioned previously, it is a money maker to take underdogs and UNDERs in the CFL, but this has been so lopsided in the past few weeks that it is time to be wary of a regression and what better way to go anti-trend than with a covering machine?  Besides that we get a chance to fade my least favorite team this year in the CFL, the Eskimos.  We're layin'.

2)  Saskatchwan/Winnipeg UNDER 54

Super impressed with the Roughriders' D, especially against the pass...this week they face a pretty angry Bomber team who are capable off playing decent defense themselves, even though their bottom line has been hurt by turnovers by the offense.  This line for the side started lower than I thought it'd be....the linemaker wishes to attract Roughrider money it looks like and the public early on is backing the Bombers, Bombers were in it until the very last versus the Stamps until two brainlock moments cost their backers the cover and the UNDER in the end.....usually that causes teams to buckle down and play great D and to take care of the football......we're thinking defensive slugfest.   

Montreal's defense didn't suddenly find itself last week...they were playing at home versus a quarterback in his first ever road game and they could've/should've lost to him.  They journey on the road to play the team with probably the most productive passing game in the league this year, who had a sub-par performance at home against the Alouettes 3 weeks ago.

For as bad as the Alouette defense has been, their offense, despite abysmal receivers have shown some signs of life.  Like Pipkin as a performer and a leader and even figuring that the Alouettes will drop a couple of likely touchdown passes in this one I still believe that they could generate 20 points or so, or maybe we see the "Here's Johnny Show" again who could also generate some points.

Here's a very good query relevant to the Sasquatches and the Redblacks this week that has says to fade the home favorite and to play the OVER....and this query I've just run has gotten me OFF of the UNDER in the Bomber/Sasquatch game...I have a book that allows me to buy-out of a bet without penalty.

tA(W)>oA(W)  and HF and DIV  and p:ADW  

5-19 ATS (-3.14), 16-9 straight up (+3.336)  and 18-7 O/U (+4.42)

Play VERSUS a home divisional favorite off an away dog win that has a better record then their present opponent.

So, plays so far:

1)  Stampeders -7

2)  Winnipeg/Sasquatch O/U BOUGHT OUT, NO PLAY

3)  Alouette/Redblacks OVER 51

Adding:

4)  Blue Bombers +3'

Using the date in the last thread I'll go against the home divisional favorite off an away dog win with a better record, if we exclude November games those teams are 3-19 ATS.

Adding:

Alouettes +15'     

Alouettes fall into a very good query where an away divisional dog is playing a team off an away dog win

AD  and DIV and op:ADW  and month>7 and tA(W)<oA(W)

My plays for the week:

1)  Alouettes/Redblacks OVER 51

2)  Bombers +3'

3)  Stampeders -7

4)  Alouettes +15'

"Thank you, God, for this good life and forgive us if we do not love it enough."

Garrison Keillor

FYI Indigo Riders have won the labour day classic 13 times out of 14

Freak,

My database have the following records for Monday games between game numbers 9 and 12, which should be labour day

Calgary 9-2

Hamilton 7-3

Toronto 3-6

Edmonton 2-9

A classic case of the chaotic nature of the CFL.

Montreal never looks like losing at a >15 point underdog, the OVER never had a chance.

1)  Alouettes OVER 51   loser

2)  Alouettes +15'  winner

3)  Blue Bombers +3'

4)  Stamps -7

Bought out of my Calgary play.  Teams with a worse record (Edmonton, Toronto) and the worse yards/pass attempt differential as away dogs 62.3% of the time.    Now Calgary seems to break all of the tendencies/angles and the Stamps are almost a "no-fly" zone for me these days.

Having  a case of buyer's remorse, my bookie allows me to cancel my bet with no charge as long as the line hasn't moved.

Which leaves us with....play(s):

3)  Bombers +3'

4)  Calgary -7 NO PLAY (cancelled bet)

1)  Montreal +15'  winner (Pipkin is just one of the those inspirational guys who makes everyone around him lift their games)

2)  Montreal OVER 51 loser   Montreal held a top three passing offense to 11 points??!!...that was amazing.

What does Montreal now do with Johnny?  It looks obvious to me that Pipkin should be their franchise quarterback for the next 10 years.  But, you just paid another team two number 1 draft picks for Manziel and it makes management look bad if you decide that the guy who was home sitting on the couch who you cut at the beginning of the season a few weeks ago is better than your high-priced acquisition.  This COULD be one of these scenarios where the right guy ends up getting the shaft,.....the writing may be on the wall for Pipkin.

The year is basically lost for Montreal anyway....you could play them both as a type of audition for next year, and trade the lesser afterwards.

Matt Nichols and Johnny Manziel might be on the market next year, adding to the zaniness and the fascination  of the CFL.

Bombers 20-17 with 2 minutes left in the 3rd....looks we'll see one go down to the wire as we often do in the CFL......good game.

23-24 in the last 8 minutes.

23-24, 3 minutes left

Touchdown Saskatchewan after a great call to throw the bomb, when they could've been conservative.

31-23 Sasquatches with a minute left.

Interception, ballgame.

1-2 for the week.

32-20 for the season