week 14 CFL

36-23 ATS season to date, 3-1 last week.

Ja, it's waaay to early, but it's the weekend here, and tomorrow?....well it won't be and I'll maybe not have the time.

Something about the CFL this year....it's lost its mojo...the games are the least interesting that I can remember....we had a good one with Toronto/BC that was epic CFL, but those have been few and far between this season.  

Seems as if the coaches have become scared to let it rip except for Toronto and of course Michael Riley who never met a bomb he didn't like.  Other than that, we have game manager quarterbacks like Zach Collaros and Cody Fajardo, thinking that a 15 yard pass is a bomb.....I just don't know Virginia what the answer is, maybe we oughta put a team in Novia Scotia and then Alaska and then have jet lag computations become a necessary part of our handicapping arsenal.

"Yeah, that's the ticket!!"

Baltimore?....nah, that's a terrible idea.

Indigo lines.

1)  Hamilton  -6  45

2)  Edmonton +12 45....they say if you repeat something enough times, it becomes your truth, much like the Cowardly Lion in the Wizard of Oz.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8lXfAPf4Vc&ab_channel=Michael

"I will not bet the Elks, I will not bet the Elks, I will not bet the Elks, I will not, I will not, I will not!!"

3)  Ottawa +13  47.....if the Elks faced off versus the Redblacks who would win?  What would the line be? 

Who would go?

4)  Bombers -13  50....memo to Alouettes' brass....Matthew Shiltz is your best quarterback and you will have him holding a clipboard as he  always has while your team goes down in flames with Trevor Harris.  I will save you two years of wasted time, trouble and money by me informing you of this. 

My initial consultation is always free.

NFL

Week 9 away dogs with less than three wins on the season....57-34 ATS

Texans 

A week 9 away dog that has lost their last two road games....42-23 ATS

Texans, Jets

A week 9 away dog that has the worse average scoring differential than their present opponent....104-77 ATS

ON Jets, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Browns, Falcons, Titans, Bears

Plays:

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +7

3)  Patriots -3

4)  Browns +125

5)  Packers +3

6)  Chargers -3

7)  Steelers -6'

Covers has the CFL lines out.

Hamilton     -6     43'

Elks            +6    46

Ottawa       +10'  45'

Winnipeg    -12'   45

Plays:

1)  BC +6'..........teams that play a third straight road game after losing the first two have been very good in all football codes.

2)  Riders -6......we're auto-fading the Elks as long as the coach and quarterback stay the same.

3)  Toronto -10'...ditto versus the Redblacks. 

NFL.......

November teams with the lesser average scoring margin that will have the stronger next game line than their present opponent's.

357-237 ATS, 60.1%

Broncos, Browns

Away dogs that have won either 0 or 1  out of their last three games in November have been 877-733 ATS, 54.5%.

If those teams have the lesser average scoring margin, they have been 556-407 ATS, 57.7%

If also those teams in their last three games have scored less than expected (delta points scored), this moves to 505-366 ATS, 58%, and 29-15 ATS in week 9.

tS(W, N=3)<2 and AD and tA(dps, N=3)<0 and week=9

Qualifying teams.....Texans, Broncos, Browns, Bears

Also, away dogs week 9 that have an average scoring margin of -7/game or worse on Sunday games in their last three games have been 38-17 ATS.....Browns, Texans

A Sunday November favorite whose total was 4 points greater in their previous game than their present opponent's last game total.

779-997 ATS, 43.9%

VERSUS Bills, Colts, Rams, Cowboys 

Re-visiting an angle from a previous post.

Also, away dogs week 9 that have an average scoring margin of -7/game or worse in their last three games have been 38-17 ATS.....Browns, Texans, and Bears

If those teams are winless their last three games, they have been 8-0 ATS in week 9 and 22-6 ATS overall in the month of November, covering by an average of 16.8 points/game.....Bears, Texans

tA(margin, N=3)<-7 and AD and month=11 and tS(W, N=3)=0

tA(margin, N=3)<-7 and AD and month=11 and tS(W, N=3)=0 and week=9

Deleting my Steelers play.....considering playing the Bears.

Plays:

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +7

3)  Patriots -3

4)  Browns +125

5)  Packers +3

6)  Chargers -3

Bears +?.....maybe

A Sunday November favorite whose total was 4 points greater in their previous game than their present opponent's last game total.

779-997 ATS, 43.9%

VERSUS Bills, Colts, Rams, Cowboys

If our favorite will either be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite this moves to 238-387 ATS, 38.1%, including 9-22 ATS as a home favorite in week 9......

p:total-op:total>4 and day=Sunday and HF and (n:D or on:F) and division!=o:division and week=9

VERSUS Rams, Cowboys

A November home favorite that was a playoff team last season with a less than or equal to won/loss winning percentage of 50% whose next week's line is weaker than their opponent's.

HF and month=11 and tpS(playoffs)>0 and tA(W)<=.5 and n:line>on:line

17-33 ATS......VERSUS Chiefs....Packers are around -6 for next week at home versus the Seahawks and the Chiefs are around -3 at the Raiders next week.

I am going to do a correction....my database I use as a reference gave me incorrect information in regards to a team on at least a three game losing streak.

I used the query text "tS(W, N=3)=0", which yielded the incorrect information, after trying  "p:margin<0 and pp:margin<0 and ppp:margin<0"  that  gave me very different results.

The two teams that are away dogs on at least a three game losing streak are the Bears and the Texans.

Non-divisional away dogs in this scenario in November are 77-65 ATS, and only 15-14 in week 9 on Sundays.

In November when our away dog  on their losing streak has less than three losses more than wins (the Bears) they have been 16-21 ATS.

In the same situation when our away dog has greater than three losses more than wins (Texans) they have been 46-29 ATS.

Alternatively, if our away dog is playing a less than 500 team they have been 32-19 ATS (Texans) and they are only 30-32 ATS if they're playing an above 500 team (Bears).

Sorry for the wrong information, the online database has undergone a change of ownership and they are having all kinds of delays and problems getting things right.

A Sunday November favorite whose total was 4 points greater in their previous game than their present opponent's last game total.

779-997 ATS, 43.9%

VERSUS Bills, Colts, Cowboys, correction:  Cardinals, NOT  Rams

Superbook contest plays which are 24-15-1 this season:

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +6'

3)  Chargers -1'

4)  Browns +2'

5)  Steelers -6

I like that Browns play. Gut says Vikings too, the bye week and Ravens at home again after being humiliated at home last game is very concerning though. Texans are interesting. I like the Bears Monday. 

I like the Tiger Cats Saturday, just first glance, don't like seeing you on the Lions....any chance you have any CFL numbers for a team after playing an overtime game on the road that they won?....I like the Green Riders with you.

G'day Polar.....I'm fading first year quarterbacks as dogs (including Darnold because he plays like one)........ they are coming in at about 30% this year.  The Steelers offensive line is no longer offensive, but obviously it is not a strength for them, but I don't think the Bears will score more than 14 on the road with a rookie quarterback against the Steel City defenders on a Monday night under the lights.  Maybe Fields throws a couple touchdowns to the wrong team.

Ja, maybe the T'Cats can get the cover, but they just don't have "it" this season in my opinion.  The database that Spottie and I have used for a reference went caput, so no chance of looking up past history.  The first 8 weeks of the season in the CFL it is away dogs all the way regardless of what fundamental or past history there is.  After that it is a mish-mash and your guess is probably better than mine, so don't let me talk you out of a game...LOL.  

As I said last week, I am fading Edmonton and Ottawa every game as the linemaker can't make the lines big enough to have me off of them.  Both teams' quarterbacks and coaches are abysmal and that is 80% of the modern game as far as betting/winning is concerned.

Thanks for your thoughts. Bears are not a play of mine thus far, I try never to make prime time plays until the day of but leaning Bears. I settled on my CFL plays, Tiger Cats -6, Riders -6 and Alouettes +12.5....Wishing you the best of luck

IND is a Thursday favorite.

ON Vikings, Titans, Texans

Ok.

This season only....a home favorite that has had the lesser game total last game than their present opponent....7-21 ATS

p:total-op:total<0 and season=2021 and HF

VERSUS Rams, 49ers

A home favorite in 2021 whose last game total was less than 45......4-9 ATS

VERSUS 49ers, Bengals

An away non-divisional dog in 2021 whose last game total was greater than 45.....19-6 ATS

p:total>45 and AD and season=2021 and division!=o:division

Vikings, Texans, Titans, Packers

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +7

3)  Patriots -3

4)  Browns +125

5)  Chargers -3

6)  Steelers -6

7)  Chargers -2

8)  Titans +7'

still on the fence about the Broncos +

Plays:

NFL

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +7

3)  Patriots -3

4)  Browns +125

5)  Steelers -6

6)  Chargers -2

7)  Titans +7'

CFL

1)  Riders -6

2)  Lions +6

3)  Argos -10'

NCAA

1)  Navy +21, -111

A week 9 home favorite with the better net yards per pass team....17-26 ATS, week 9 and 97-122 ATS in November (30-54 as a home divisional favorite)

Example....the Cowboys throw for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and allow 7.3...the Broncos throw for 6.8 and allow 6.8.

VERSUS Cowboys, Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Rams, Steelers

In November Sunday games an away team with the lesser scoring margin who will either be a favorite next game or their present opponent will be a dog have covered over 57% of their games, 341-257 ATS and 88-59 ATS, 59.9% in week 9.

A and month=11 and day=Sunday and tA(margin)<oA(margin) and (n:F or on:D) 

ON Texans, Broncos, Browns, Falcons, Titans, Eagles

Adding:

Plays:

NCAA

2)  La Monroe +3', -115

3)  La Tech +13

___________________

1) Navy +21,  -111

NFL

1)  Vikings +6

2)  Texans +7

3)  Patriots -3

4)  Browns +125

5)  Steelers -6

6)  Chargers -2

7)  Titans +7'

CFL

1)  Riders -6

2)  Lions +6

3)  Argos -10'

Adding:

CFL

4)  UNDER 44 BC/Hamilton 

5)  UNDER 46 Elks/Sask

6)  UNDER 46 Argos/Redblacks

7)  OVER 44.5 Als/Bombers

_______________________

1)  Lions +6

2)  Riders -6

3)  Argos -10'

Adding:

NCAA FB

4)  Georgia Tech+10'

1)  La Monroe +3' -115

2)  Navy +21 -111

3)  La Tech +13