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#1
Last week 3-1....season to date 45-23
The game I liked the most, the BC Lions was the only loser....this happens a lot in betting, if you have a system you play ALL the indicated plays for equal amounts and not the ones you like....this lesson was rammed home to me in the NFL this week as I deleted a couple of plays I didn't like that were plays....they both won, and I played a couple of games that I liked outside of my system and they both lost......the uglier the play, MOST of the time, the more chances you have of winning.
To illustrate an example of this.....in the King of Covers contest, which by the way I have been terrible at this year in the NFL so far, only 26% of the entrants are above water....that means that 74% of us bettors have been losers....and the majority of those are looking at games and deciding that because team A looked awesome last week and team B looked terrible, so I'll bet team A and fade team B. That is the methodology......and the vast majority of those doing it that way have been losers this year and will always be losers. Those that have a methodology have a chance to be successful, and those that don't have less of a chance. Even Billy Walters hired computer people to crunch numbers, which were basically regression type stats to come up with a pointspread that was more accurate than what the bookies' were.
1) Edmonton +4
Perhaps the Bombers will be a bit deflated after having their streak end. Meanwhile Edmonton is in desperation mode, which doesn't necessarily mean they'll play well, but ex-champs as a dog tend to play well.
2) Hamilton +3
Calgary can take a deep sigh of relief after running through a gauntlet of games...their top seed in the playoffs is almost assured, and there was an issue in a nightclub that could negatively affect their team. Time for Zach to show his worth this week.
3) Toronto +3
The Als giving points to any CFL team? Where do I sign up to go against them? Not a Drew Willy fan, but the Als are sooooo discombobulated that even a team that has struggled like the Argos should get the job done.
4) Hamilton/Calgary UNDER 55
Pure regression play as my six game rolling average play calculates out to >64 points being scored...the bookie has a line of 55....who is right more often, the player or Vegas? We're acknowledging that Vegas is right more often than what we figured and things don't continue on the same path....UNDER it.
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