Week 2 CFL relative strength lines

I am not predicting what Vegas will make as a line, but what I believe the true line should be.  Obviously the bookies have to balance action, and their point of views will differ from mine.

1)  Stamps -8' Lions 52

Who exactly is going to play qb for the Lions?

2)  Edmonton -2 Montreal 53

Edmonton isn't crushing Ottawa and I agree with the lookahead line.  I think Edmonton has problems this year after watching their first game.

3)  Winnipeg -7 Toronto 45

Toronto could be the surprise of the league this season.

4)  Saskatchewan -3 Hamilton  47

Early leans to the Tiger Cats and the Alouettes.

Here is a very good CFL early season angle.....

We wish to PLAY AGAINST a home favorite that is off a home game versus an opponent off an away game, before week 10......8-23 ATS (-5.48), 15-16 straight up (0.52)

HF and p:H and op:A and week<10

Versus Winnipeg, Saskatchewan (if a favorite) and Calgary.

Basically in the CFL the first four weeks we look to play dogs or pass.  Fundamental handicapping takes a backseat to technical handicapping for the first month, which means there will be a lot of counterintuitive results.

Examples from week one's games were the Ottawa and Lions' covers.....no way should either of them been in their ball games.  Those type of "don't make sense" games that the CFL is known for rule in the beginning of the season. The cream starts rising to the top after four games have been played, when fatigue and injuries start to kick in, and everyone has film of the other teams.  Clever coaching becomes more important later on when the more intelligent  ones realize that being predictable is a way to lose games. 

I have three historical early season angles below that are very simple....

1)  Away dogs whose opponent is off a home win before week 6.......17-7 ATS (+4.68), 11-14 straight up (-.72)

Argonauts, Tiger Cats

2)  Away dogs before week 6 whose opponent is off a home favorite loss....9-4 ATS (+1.15), 5-8 straight up (-4.36)

Alouettes, Lions

3)  Week 2 away non-divisional dogs that have the same or lesser amount of wins as their present opponent....13-3 ATS (+7.97), 8-8 straight up (+2.44)

Tiger Cats, Alouettes, Argonauts

AD and t:wins-o:wins<=0 and week=2 and not DIV

can I talk you off the TigerCats this week ?

Lions, Alouettes, Argonauts look to be great plays for me. 

Yes, well, teams that lose the championship game the season prior like the Tiger Cats tend to implode the following year, so you might.

I appreciate your research.

Other observations......the Redblacks to win games this year will have to win them ugly,...they'll be in a ton of low scoring games.

Nichols, it is obvious will take sacks rather than throw almost any kind of  pass down the field, and to his very great credit he does not throw interceptions.  It is hard to tell if he is just really gunshy or if his offensive line is really terrible.  His passing accuracy was very poor against the Elks' defense, who have not been known for being anything great defensively.

Ottawa's defense on the other hand was outstanding,..I'll say they'll end up top two in the league this season.  The Ottawa defense might out-score their offense this season....lol.

Mike Reilly?...what are the Lions going to do?  He requires a long rest and therapy, and of course a rookie quarterback is gonna make mistakes if they go with him.  Rourke is the future for the Lions though.........he'll be an MOP player within the next few years.  The Lions defense was totally chewed up the first half and then had very good results the second half...it looks to me like they'll take their lumps this season with a ton of rookies starting defensively.  The O-line of the Lions looked serviceable game 1 after being abysmal the first half of their last season.  The Lions games  look like there'll be a ton of points scored and they'll be an OVER team.

Here is an angle in regards to what transpired in the Edmonton/Ottawa game.

A team at home that lost last week at home despite outyarding their opponent

As:

Home dogs 2-13 ATS

Home favorites 12-7 ATS

We'll see what the line is for Edmonton when they play the Als next week at home.

The reciprocal situation will happen next week for the Redblacks when they go on the road...how do teams do the following week when they were outyarded but won on the road as an away dog, playing again  as an away dog?...as they will when they go to Saskatchewan.

Historically they have been 14-6 ATS (10-3 ATS in non-divisional games), but only 5-15 straight up, and 6-13-1 o/u

p:ADW and p:TY-po:TY<0 and AD and not DIV

How have teams done that are away dogs that play the same team the following week?

31-41 ATS, 9-15 ATS if it is a non-divisional game......Argonauts

@Indigo999

 Likewise 

Home favorites off a home favorite loss where they were favored by more than 5 points.....8-15 ATS.  Before week 11 this has been 2-9 ATS (-3.91), 6-5 straight up (1.91).

A home favorite playing a divisional foe, 5-8 ATS..............Calgary

A home favorite playing a non-divisional foe, 3-7 ATS......Edmonton

p:line<-5 and p:HL and HF and week<11

This angle is 6-1 ATS in week 2 and 16-4-1 ATS weeks 2-4, and 9-11-1 straight up with an average line of +6.

We take a non-divisional away dog with less wins than their present opponent who has the calculated DISADVANTAGE in their average per game season-to-date margin.

For example, this season the Tiger Cats are -13 in their scoring margin after their first game, and the Sasquatches are +4 after winning 33-29 this past weekend.  The calculated per game average difference between the two teams is 17 points, and adding 3 points for home field gives a calculated line of Sask -20.

Obviously the line for the Tiger Cats will be less than +20, and  because the Tiger Cats also have won less games than Saskatchewan they qualify as a play in this scenario.

oA(margin) - tA(margin) - line > 0 and AD and t:wins < o:wins and week<5 and not DIV

Another reason to fade WPG in week 2:

p:WHD and po:points < 17.5 and H

SU and ATS:  1-7

A sample size of only 8 games is hardly solid, so just consider this a small factor for your own handicapping.  Good luck.

Thanks for the share Dogbite, we'll make a CFL aficionado yet.

The CFL this year will be the most balanced I have ever seen it.  I don't believe there will be any superstar teams and by the end of the regular season every team will have lost at least 3 or 4 times and no team will have less than 4 wins.

The CFL.ca official website provides food for thought.

This was their power ratings to start the season before game 1.....before going on to read the rest of the commentary just study the rankings for a minute.

1)  Tiger Cats

2)  Riders

3)  Bombers

4)  Alouettes

5)  Elks

6)  Stamps

7)  BC Lions

8)  Argos

9)  Redblacks

Numbers one and three played each other week one.  The number 2 Riders failed to cover as favorites as did number 1 Hamilton.

AND.....the bottom three ranked three teams all covered as away dogs!

If  you wish to do nothing else this season as far as handicapping......pay attention to the power ratings, and consider taking any of  the bottom three teams off a loss as away dogs.  And along the same lines, consider fading any of the top three teams off a win as home favorites.  Exclude games where two top 3 teams are playing each other and the same with the bottom three teams. 

Consider that away non-divisional dogs do better historically than divisional away dogs in the CFL.

I took one stat last year for the NFL,.......offensive yards per pass attempt and ranked the teams from best to worst, (which you can find on statfox or teamrankings.com) and after week 5 I faded any of the top 6 teams as home favorites off a win, and I played any of the bottom 6 teams in offensive yards per pass attempt as away dogs off a loss, and I did very well.  It was an example of regression to the mean.

The Motley Fool website has made their owners and their proponents millions of dollars picking undervalued stocks that the public has not liked...

remember the phrase, "the masses are asses". 

If you can zig when the public is zagging, or for our intents and purposes, take some stinky looking dogs, you will do better than most.

Here is one Indigo

week<10 and AD and on:DIV and week

week 3 Edmonton  @ BC

play against Edmonton in week 2 =Alouettes

week<4 and AD and not DIV and week

The dogs are 15-5 in week 2 and this weeks plays should be :

Argo's 

Alouettes 

Ticats

Einstein said, "Make things as simple as possible, but no simpler."  

I like it.

CFL.ca power ratings are up...as mentioned in an earlier post we are considering fading any or all  of the top three teams off a win, now playing as a home favorite.

Also, we will consider any of the bottom three off a loss, now playing as an away dog.

1)  Bombers

2)  Riders

Both will likely be home favorites who won their previous game.

8)  Lions 

Will be an away dog coming off a loss.

Lines are out at sports interaction.

My lines in brackets.....

Calgary           -6'  (-8')   Lions      48'     (52)

Bombers         -6'  (-7) Argos        47'     (45)

Elks                -3'  (-2) Alouettes   49      (53)

Sasquatches   -1'  (-3) Tiger Cats   47'    (47)

This angle is predicated from the previous season's results.....how does that matter?  Whether it matters is an individual decision that each bettor must decide for himself.

As the Simon and Garfunkel song goes......"a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

In their previous season, in 2019, the final ending average margin for the Tiger Cats was +11.50/game, meaning they scored 11 and 1/2 points more than they allowed in an average game for them, by far the best in the league that season.

The Roughriders' margin for that  regular season was +5.61/game.

Making a line then based on those two results gives a difference of Hamilton +5.89/game.  Adding three points for the Sasquatches' home field would give us Saskatchewan +2.89.  Instead we have a line of Saskatchewan -1.5.

When there is a difference like this, has it been an advantage to take the team with the advantage based on last year's result or fade those results in the early part of the season, or has it been totally non-predictable?  

Here is the query for that scenario.....

opS(margin) - tpS(margin) - line > 0 and HF and week<8

The results?

18-48 ATS going against the home favorite with the calculated disadvantage (Roughriders).  This has been 9-28 ATS in non-divisional games and 3-16 ATS if our play AGAINST team made the playoffs that season.

Is that coincidence or predictive?.....you decide.

I am going to apologize, I forgot to enter a couple of numbers in my query in the above post,...the results are largely the same percentage-wise, but not the same.

I neglected to divide the margins of the two teams by 18 (the number of games played in the regular season) to get an average margin per game between  Saskatchewan and Hamilton.

The query should read....

opS(margin/18)-tpS(margin/18)-line>0 and HF and week<8

The results for the home favorite?

46-80 ATS, 36.5%

25-46 ATS if the game is between non-division foes

2-11 ATS in week 2.

An away non-divisional dog that played in at least two playoff games the season prior as been 19-7 ATS in the first four weeks of the season. 

If that team won more than 10 regular season games that past season they have been a perfect 7-0 ATS, going 6-0-1 straight up. 

Tiger Cats

AD and week<5 and PRSW and not DIV and tpS(playoffs)>1

First line has finally been put out by the cowering sportsbooks for the game tonight.  And the rest?.....perhaps they're pissing in their pants at the thought of the mighty CFL sports bettors that might cause them to lose at 1/10th of one percent of their bottom line.

I can just picture the sportsbook manager when the corporate suits arrive to look over the handle for the week.

Corporate suits:  "Hi Larry, how has the week been going?"

Sportsbook manager:  "Good day Mr. Big, yes, reasonably well, baseball we're up again, and with all the upsets in the Olympics that went well."

CS:  "How is preseason football going?"

SM:  "Oh yeah, it's goin' good, lots of Cowboys action, so you know we'll do well in the futures action this year, hahaha!!"  

CS:  (Chuckling)......"Yes, very good Larry...and the action for our week one in the NCAA and NFL?"

SM:  "Going real good Mr. B, lots of action, record handle this year."

CS:  "Ok, where do we need to improve?.........my wife is bitchin' how I never take her anywhere and I promised that I'd take her to Hawaii if/when we hit our profit targets for the season. What could be keeping us from reaching our target?"

SM:  Manager fiddles nervously with his papers...."Well, hmmm, ah, you know there's that CFL betting bunch, a group of degenerates that got no lives....there's a ton of volatility in those games as you know Mr. B and those guys  just seem to always pull games out their ass."

CS:  "What?, WE'RE LOSING AT THAT AGAIN???!!!  Let's do some psychological stuff to get them off their game then!" 

SM:  "Well Boss, we're putting out the lines at the very last minute, making them think we're not even gonna offer betting.....we're making 'em squirm enough I think."

CS:  "Larry, obviously that is not working, you just gotta do a better job,.....who for crying out loud is making the lines??!!"  

SM:  "Well, I've had Fredo makin' 'em."

CS:  "Larry, you know as well as I do that Fredo's got an IQ below zero....I WANT YOU TO HANDLE CFL LINES FROM NOW ON!!!"

SM:  (Larry fidgeting nervously)...."hmmm, ok then Boss, I'll get right on it."

CS:  "Larry, we've treated you reasonably well here, and I expect next time I see you that our bottom line in the CFL has improved, or, there could be some alterations, shall we say, to the staffing in our little sportsbook, ok?"

SM:  "Yes, sure, Mr. B, no problem, ok, I'm on it."

Plays:

1)  Lions/Stamps OVER 46.5

Week 2 away dogs have been 22-14 ATS (+3.14) and 22-14 o/u (+4.53)

The o/u moves to 11-5 OVER when it has been a divisional game.

Play:

2)  Argos +6

Argos fall into a myriad of good angles, many of which have been covered in the above posts, so spend a calorie or two and scroll up the page if interested.  I'm bullish on the Argos this season against the spread and coming out last week, they just looked like they knew what they were doing for a change.  Could be that they are taking a page from Andy Reid's book of how to win on the road, which is,....pass like crazy and get the lead in the first half, as statistically you will win a large proportion of your games if you start out with the lead.  Good for them,...someone is paying attention to the math which seems to be ignored all too often among the decision makers in pro football.

So, in essence what the mathematics is saying is,.......establishing the run is false premise of how to win football games,....GETTING THE LEAD AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE IS WHERE THE PRIORITES SHOULD BE.

The Argos' defense is also good, so we will see how it goes against the defending champs who had to field a few haymakers from the Tiger Cats last week.  Typically the top two teams from the season prior tend to have trouble as favorites their next season especially at home, and again KC in the NFL last season was abysmal as home favorites.

Zach will have to put a few games together before I'm convinced that he knows what he is doing. I expect him to have a poor season,...we'll see if I am a prophet, or not.