Posted:
#1
6-2 ATS but the past doesn't mean a thing. I am looking for a few good spots to increase my bank.
I use past data and history and what I know about the teams to compile my thoughts and come up with solid plays.
BC Lions @ - 2.5 and 50 at most shops
Montreal Alouettes.
BC was 13-5 ATS last regular season. Wally Buono has made a big difference since returning as head coach. The other thing is they had some really good lines last year. Evidence of this is their road schedule last year.
Their biggest road line last year was -4 to Saskatchewan, and since Saskatchewan Montreal and Toronto all had QB issues covering their road favored spreads was quite easy 3-0 ATS as road favorites laying 4 or less.
If you look back at BC's road lines last year you will be very surprised at how easy some of those looked. To give you a few examples:
@ Hamilton with no Zack Collaros +5.5
@ Saskatchewan +2.
Reason for this they were coming in off a down year missing the playoffs and that is why Buono was back on the field coaching.
Moving on to this year pretty much the same thing. Home favored to high score Edmonton and they lose the game. Last week they move on to Toronto and get a nice line of +3 and yup they do what they should and they take the game and pull away in the 4th Q.
The Alouettes play a slow game. With players Like Sutton running the ball and Nik Lewis catching short balls they can keep making those 1st downs. Durrant is and will be an up grade at QB, but none the less he is not elite. The Alouette D is pretty darn good so they keep the game plan is keep the ball on offense and play stout D. They do a nice job.
This line and total is right where it should be so my approach will be waiting to see any line moves.
My thoughts are to buck the strong under trend (overs are 4-25) the Alouettes have going when their totals are set at 51 or higher, but as it looks its just not a good idea.
I don't think it is wise to play BC laying road points against a pretty strong D and the Alouettes upgrading their QB. The Als also have a nice running game. If the Al's can get an early lead it could be a tough climb to get the lead. BC in its second straight road trip out East but I am not sure that will be any issue early in the year.
Lean Al's and the points, the more points the better. If the total drops I might consider an over but if you watch them play it might be hard to watch.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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