Week 4

Montreal was sooo impressive today. 

Their running back, Stanback looked like the next Adrian Pederson.

So, those of us, including me that derided them, well, we're eating crow.

And keep in mind, teams winning the rushing yards battle cover 70% of the time,......they cover 77% of the time when they're a dog.

I'll be taking a long hard look at them in future games.  Their receivers still aren't very good, but their defense is getting better and their coaching for the first time in a long time is on par with the rest of the CFL.  Vernon Adams will have to make some plays in the air now, but they are throwing it down the field where the penalty flags can fly...in today's game, you got to chuck it up there at least 3-4 times a game, and more often than not the referee pulls out his hanky.

Teams with a negative average rush differential/game of -20 of more than their opponent cover 56-57% of the time as away dogs in the CFL.

As an example...

Team A has averaged rushing for 80 yards/game and is allowing 105 yards/game.

Team B has average rushing for 100 yards/game and is allowing 100 yards/game.

If team A is an away dog, they cover around 56% of the time.

Copy and paste  it into sportsdatabase.com and check it out.

tA(RY-o:RY)-oA(RY-o:RY)<-20 and playoffs=0 and AD

129-101 ATS,

if team A is off a loss this moves to 87-62 ATS and 63-87 O/U.

Home dogs in this situation have only been 74-76 ATS and 57-59 ATS off a loss.

hi Dogbite,  For me personally I don't pay attention to the average spread covering margin....however there are those that say that is as important as the winning percentage.

Plays:

1)  Tiger Cats OVER 56' winner

2)  Bombers +4 winner

3)  Argonauts +7

4)  Sasquatches -3

Obviously we have one game where our line isn't the best, and another where it is...this is part and parcel of being a bettor.  Typically 60% of the time in the CFL the lines move in the direction I play them early in the week, so it is advantageous to play them early in the week....this week it was 2 out of 4 (Bombers +4, Riders -3) that we got the better line by playing them early and two where we didn't do as well...it happens.

There is a lot of similarities between the Argos game and the Alouettes, as both were 0-2  and had a lot of issues with the defense, and both are coming home as big dogs with new coaches that want to get off the snide.  Toronto has the right quarterback playing finally,,,,difference is Hamilton was rolling and looking like a dominant team and BC hasn't won yet either.  I expect that Toronto will try the same thing that Montreal did, which was to run their stud running back.

In the other game, if Calgary were to go to +6 or more, I might consider trying to middle the game, where I'd get a good result if Saskatchewan won by 3, 4, 5 or 6 points.   I would win 1 unit on a differential of  3 or 6 in a Rider win and two units on a 4 or 5 point win.  This happened once or twice last year that I won two units when the game landed in between the two numbers that I held.  I only do it if there are 4 or more numbers that I could win or side with, and usually around the 3-7 point range.

It is looking very much like the Alouettes are headed in the right direction with both their head coach and their defensive coordinator hires.....good for them.

Now, bring on the Novia Scotia Schooners!

Way too early week 5 Indigo lines.  

Home team  

Lions        -1  Eskimos      55

Bombers -12  Argonauts   49

Redbacks -7  Alouettes     52

Tiger Cats -5  Stampeders 55

It is amazing sometimes to see how a team's line will change based on the result from the week before...that is why it is a good exercise to put out a line BEFORE the result of the week prior.  It is a pretty strong axiom of betting that a team is never as bad as they were the week before or as good.

Am example of that is that we know already the result of both Montreal AND Ottawa,....if we had made a line on their game BEFORE this week's result, we would have made Montreal about a 11 or 12 point road underdog.

Most commonly we look to take the team AGAINST THE VALUE.   Those that say "yes,we got great value on the game", are usually losers.  The bookmaker is putting out a line to attract plays on the team they think will lose against the spread, about half of the time and the other half they are just trying to get balanced action.  And Vegas has built some of the nicest buildings on the planet based on this premise, which works.  Always ask yourself "what would Vegas want me to do?" and consider doing the opposite..........doing this thing alone will increase your winning percentage.

Here's an interesting angle.

These are the parameters:

1)  Home favorite

2)  Game number 1-9

3)  Had a worse record than their opponent did last year during the regular season

30-55-1 ATS (-3.00)

35-50-1 O/U 

Relevant this week for the Roughriders, and next week if the Tiger Cats and Lions are home favorites.

PRSW<o:PRSW and HF and game number<10 

Thanks for checking out my thread guys.

Yes, Torontous Argonatus looks like a very ugly beast....and when the line hits >6 then some very good historical results kick in.  I am playing it, but I certainly don't want to coerce anyone into taking the same path.  Maybe the Argo braintrust has figured out how to get the Lions a dose of food poisoning before game time, as what happened in a World Cup final rugby match in South Africa once when New Zealand were heavy favorite with Jonah Lamu to the Boks in South Africa in the grand final.

Calgary line has hit +6 with about 8 hours left before game time.  I may wait to within a half hour of game time unless the game hits 6.5 before, then I am attempting a middle.

BC money coming in, and they have moved from -7 to -8......in the King of Covers contest this year so far in the CFL, when the public is on the favorite >57% of the betting population, they have been 1-2 ATS.

61% are on the Lions.

I have not recently looked at consensus numbers and how successful the public has been when there is a high percentage of the betting public on a favorite, one of these days I'll go back 3-5 years to check...I'd estimate in the CFL that they cover around 43-44% of the time when at least 57% of the population is on the favorite.

Perhaps someone with a betting insights subscription would have that data.

I like using the King of Covers contest data, because Covers has no motivation to lie about what the public is betting on, and Covers is a fair representation of the general betting public.

I have read about successful bettors who do nothing in pro football but play on underbet teams.  One couldn't do that in NCAA football because sharp money wins in that football code, and those that pay attention will see that the direction of a line predicated on money bet correlates with winning....not so in the NFL and CFL.

Some money now coming in on the Stamps and it is now less likely I'll try to middle.