WEEK 5

Question

CALG@PEGOnly twice since the end of the 2013 season has Calgary been a road dog.  They are very strong as a road chalk in the recent past. 2014 they were 7-1-1 as the visiting chalk. last year Calgary started slow 1-5 ats on the road,but then covered the final 2. So far on the year Calgary is 1-1 on the road covering as a dog.  Their opening game loss to be as a -1.5 road chalk to BCWinnipeg has been  the worst team in the CFL since their 2011 grey cup runner up year.2012   6-122013  3-152014  7-112015  5-132016   1-3This week playing probably the best road team in the CFL.I am not interested in laying road chalk that often so my intial look will be how many am I getting in Winnipeg?Based on previous years lines, and seeing Calgary and Winnipeg play this year it better be &#x2B;10.  The opener should be more than 7.5 and it will move up before the kickoff.Winnipeg has a decent D and they make some good plays on special teams that helped them push last weeks closing spread of &#x2B;4.  They continually struggle moving the football again this year and I believe its the personnel at WR, and Drew Willy.  They have a good amount of yardage but they struggle to put points up.Play on Peg is &#x2B;10 or better, other wise look to the other games.

spottie2935 · Answer

CALG@PEGOnly twice since the end of the 2013 season has Calgary been a road dog.  They are very strong as a road chalk in the recent past. 2014 they were 7-1-1 as the visiting chalk. last year Calgary started slow 1-5 ats on the road,but then covered the final 2. So far on the year Calgary is 1-1 on the road covering as a dog.  Their opening game loss to be as a -1.5 road chalk to BCWinnipeg has been  the worst team in the CFL since their 2011 grey cup runner up year.2012   6-122013  3-152014  7-112015  5-132016   1-3This week playing probably the best road team in the CFL.I am not interested in laying road chalk that often so my intial look will be how many am I getting in Winnipeg?Based on previous years lines, and seeing Calgary and Winnipeg play this year it better be &#x2B;10.  The opener should be more than 7.5 and it will move up before the kickoff.Winnipeg has a decent D and they make some good plays on special teams that helped them push last weeks closing spread of &#x2B;4.  They continually struggle moving the football again this year and I believe its the personnel at WR, and Drew Willy.  They have a good amount of yardage but they struggle to put points up.Play on Peg is &#x2B;10 or better, other wise look to the other games.

spottie2935 · Answer

Ott@SaskI was out and only saw the game winning touchdown for BC in their road win over Sask.  I wont get into detail about the game because i will watch it later this week.Ott will be favored here and for obvious reasons.  They are 8-1 ATS on the road and only in one of those games they were laying points.  last week to the Argos and that was only -1.There will be no discounts on the Redblacks this week.  They will be legit road chalk and I will be on Sask  as long as the line is -3 or better.  Personally I think its higher but Sask was &#x2B;4 to Edmonton so &#x2B;3 or &#x2B;4 could be about right.Redblacks are currently covering a bunch of spreads 15-5 ats last 20 games, but again this is a bit misleading because last year they had lots of line value and I expect this to start to rotate a bit.  Make no mistake about it I will be on Sask a lot this year and this week will be no different.Sask &#x2B;3 or higher

spottie2935 · Answer

Ham@ EdOne of the first things I look at is who is covering and at what record.Ed is 21-12 ats last 33. in week 14 last year the run was at 16-6 ats since then its been back and fourth.  The lines have caught up with them and their so has their loss of personnel.  Ed will be favorites again but by how much ?Ham is 19-10 ats last 29 coming off a road chalk win vs. a less then full Montreal squad last week.  Make no mistake about it Masoli and their offense is a disaster.  Will we see Collaros  this week.  Will he be primed and ready?I dont have any thought on the game before I see a line.  there are many questions heading into this one.  All i know is if Ham gets quality QB play they can hang with any team.Need to see a line, but I like good covering teams getting points.

spottie2935 · Answer

MondayAls@ArgosHere we go again with the Argos at home.  New stadium or not this team rarely get the home cover. Thatis my only thought as we need to see if the Montreal players are back in this week.

spottie2935 · Answer

Leans to the Riders and to the Ticats

Indigo999 · Answer

Probably with you on Tigercats if they are getting >=7, would like 10, but perhaps the bookies will start enticing favorite action, even against the defending champs. I'd love to see Zach come back, as I don't like to back teams that have mediocre quarterbacking on the road. I'd say we wouldn't see a line until everyone knows the quarterback situation.

If you didn't know it, sub Sask QB played all of second half after the regular qb hurt his ankle on the same leg he injured that put him out all of last year. Second stringer QB played pretty well, though pocket presence wasn't too good. BC pressured on the pass and I would think any team watching the game would do the same. Could lead to some "all or nothing plays" for them this week, which would have me thinking about another OVER for the Sasquatches, plus their defense has got a LONG ways to go.

I am not buying on Sask yet,...maybe another loss or two and then the market on them will have bottomed I'm guessing. In the NFL, teams that have lost their first four games are good plays the rest of the way, especially off a loss and/or on the road. I'll have to check my database to see if it is similar in the CFL.

I am pondering how on God's green earth they will be able to get action on Montreal after what transpired for them against the Tigercats. Still, Hamilton was in a similar predicament after their previous debacle at home versus the Bombers and previous to that, home to the Lions, and of course, it's in the CFL where Lazarus-type scenarios happen pretty often.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

WOW, you are quick to get the analysis out buddy.. Very quick.

The BB's offense is terrible man.. Stamps coming off the bye week. I can't lay that much chalk on the road either. Hard game to cap. Out of all the games man, I really like the Ti-Cats on the road to the Eskys. Only if Collaros is back though. No doubt the Eskys will be favs in this game but the Ti-Cats will be a great team IMHO when Collaros is back and they will want to show the Eskys that its their year this season. In the next few weeks, I may put a future bet on the Ti-Cats to win it all this season. Only problem is, I hope Collaros stays fit.

spottie2935 · Answer

I will watch the sask game today. I got home late, flipped it in for a second, only to see BC's TD 55 yard bomb and said I am too tired to see this go up in flames right now. It did, and I was not aware that Durrant went out again.

Even so why the Fudge did the Sask organization leave the QB spot naked this year, Again!!!! ????? I haven't seen the back up or even know who it is, but if they have a crappy guy I don't understand.

Indigo you are probably right about that over, and it might be an awesome price given the back up would start.

This is the CFL yes there is some seperation of the squads,but really they are all secondary players. One hot QB and the scoreboard lights up. The problem has been all these back ups playing. Masoli, Sask QB, Ricky Ray has been down that's how T Harris was discovered. Also I don't consider Kevin Glenn anything special he is maybe the 2nd best back up, Henry Burris or T Harris are better. This QB injury bug has been going on since last year. Add to all this Anthony Calvillo retiring and the scoring has been absent.

Aussie Hamilton would be a good future the one thing that would bother me is finding s ground game. I like the squad and coaching. Plenty of talent there. Long shot would be BC only because they can run and play D. Maybe after NFL 1 st cuts someone want to donate their time up north? BC would be a good fit! I am not a coach but there is a reason Lulay is on the bench right now. Maybe it's because BC is getting it done still but a few losses then what?

That's all for now boys I wanted to throw this out there so we can get an idea then we can jump an opener if it looks good.

bold27 · Answer

Good stuff boys Hey Spottie are you in Flo and who are your teamsBlackhawks from your Avi

spottie2935 · Answer

Yes I spent 30 &#x2B; years in Chicago Bold.  I played goalie in hockey from my early years in Minnesota then to Chicago at age 7.  As a kid I was Vikings and the purple people eaters until my father got fired and we moved to Chicago in 1977.  The Bears sucked until the early 80&#x27;s when they started putting the historic team together.  I actually missed that Super Bowl game due to a hockey game which we won in a blow out because the other teams superstars were home watching the Super Bowl As far as hockey goes I lived down the street from a North Star so of course I was a big fan of them in the middle 70&#x27;s.  I could name the whole team.  When I moved to Chicago I eventually switched.  It was tough because of dollar Bill Wirtz all I could do was listen on the radio so that&#x27;s what I did.  My other favorite team was Ken Dryden and the Habs.  The flyin frechmen and a great goalie. I loved those teams because the Hawks and stars sucked.  Then the hockey player I kept in contact with from the north stars got traded to the Rangers in 1978 so then I was a fan of Phil Esposito and John Davidson.  It was cool because they faced the Habs in the cup in 79.  Pretty much after my friend Dean Talafous retired because a nagging back injury and he was traded to Quebec that was the final straw for his career so then in 1979 I was all Blackhawks.  While in Minnesota I was pretty close to Dean he had some of the North Stars to his house,  he brought them by my place a few houses down and we played street hockey.  I am a fan of winning my bets and still follow the Hawks and Bears but being a fan is too expensive.  I don&#x27;t even bother with directv football package.  Anyways sorry for the long story but you asked

spottie2935 · Answer

Oh and my favorite Hawks squad was in 1989 the year they came out of no where and the flames clobbered them in the conference finals. I was at game for the 2-1 OT loss. Those flames were awesome, but nothing like the oilers pre salary cap

The oilers might have been over the cap with only 7 players

Indigo999 · Answer

Big North Stars fan back in the day, Cesaer Maniago and Gump Worsely, et.al, with Al Shaver calling the games,,,he was a legand, they got beat in the NHL finals one year by the Islanders who were too good for the N&#x27;Stars.....Dad took me to some of their games....played some ice hockey and grew up playing little league baseball and summer camp sports  with a lot of eventual big time colegiate players and a couple of NHLers.  Played ice hockey at age 11, but not good enough to play on traveling teams so played on outdoor rinks...Dad watched every one of my games sometimes in below zero weather that year,...next year he STRONGLY recommended I play basketball, which ended up working out ok.  The sport I played more than any other as a kid was boot hockey either on our dead end street or in the driveway....I made a couple of home made nets out of 2x4s and chicken wire and had neighbors and friends from school over as much as possible.  In the non-winter period we played cosom hockey with plastic sticks/pucks, and in the winter we played with real hockey sticks and sponge rubber pucks.  It was a blast!

spottie2935 · Answer

Cool stuff Indigo.  I left when I was 7 so I have like  1 or 2 years of memory of Minnesota.   It was an awesome place to have family but the winters are unreal.  We still have life long friends from there.  I always ask their kids why did you go to college in Minnesota. Calling accross campus ALL YEAR?  No thanks!  I was young when I played hockey too so it was outdoor rinks for me also.  3 minute shifts and off to the warming house.  Feet were frozen with no blood flow.  Sure made a man out of a guy at an early age!

spottie2935 · Answer

Where do you live now?

As far as you go the Bold I have no clue how you northwestern Canada folks do it ? It's sofa King cold up there. I know you layer up and it's not the middle portion of your body that gets cold but eyes, nose, hands and feet. Keep that blood warm

Indigo999 · Answer

I&#x27;m Down Under Spottie...miss Minny sometimes, nothing like the people there,...Minnesota Nice, and all that.Once when I ran out of gas about a mile from a highway petrol station I had 7 separate offers of people seeing my walking down the highway just driving by in their vehicles offering me a lift to the gas station and then back to my car.

Indigo999 · Answer

I&#x27;ve got one Oz book and pinnacle...Australian bookmakers usually have terrible prices compared to the rest of the world....here&#x27;s what they have to win the division.  They don&#x27;t specify, but I think this would be regular season record only, as their WNBA winning the division betting is regular season only.Ottawa &#x2B;125Hamilton &#x2B;225BC  &#x2B;175Edmonton &#x2B;200Calgary &#x2B;300  Interested to see how Collaros plays,...if they lose this weekend, the Tiger Cats could be 3 games down in the loss column and the price will go up.

spottie2935 · Answer

Wow your down under too?  How did your life take that turn?  I screwed up in my youth!  I should have traveled there once, I hear the ladies are real cool!

spottie2935 · Answer

Oz books are bad?  That&#x27;s funny try and make a wager here in the states without being in Vegas!!!!!  Living in Vegas used to be so difficult to work and bet. A few years ago there were no phone apps so you had to drive all over town to try and get a better line.  I lived 17 miles away from the strip so moving around was a chore.  I got a few comps over time so that made up some of the difference but having an app on your device is much better I am sure.  The other bad thing in Vegas is no reduced juice options.  It&#x27;s all crap at -110. I am not going to get into it but the USA is not trending positively

Indigo999 · Answer

Yeah, as an outsider observing from a long ways away, it seems that way about the good ole US of A. Wagering is legal here and there's quite a few books to choose from....matchbook is by the far the best price-wise but they don't carry WNBA.

Foreign markets don't price the things like baseball the same. In the American format, baseball team A will be -120 and their opponent team B will be +110. In Oz rather than the amount of money needed to win 100 dollars, it's how much return you will get for betting 100 dollars. For football it's 1.92 or 92 dollars won on every 100 dollars bet. The long and the short of it is, rather than 10 or 20 cent lines in baseball, it's 33 cent lines, the equivalent of -135 for team A and +102 for team B. If wagering becomes legal in the USA, a matching sportsbook would be the way to go as they can offer very low vig, because there is absolutely no risk to the book, for every bettor that plays team A, there has to be a bettor that plays team B....so there's no unbalanced action for the book, so no risk. I think matchbook now the vig is 1% on a winning bet and 1% on a losing bet.

I just got kicked out of an Oz book for my recent hot streak in the CFL,....was less than 5 figures I won....evidently most of the Oz books here have been bought out by British owned books and they don't tolerate someone who wins.

Betfair another matching sportsbook did a survey of all their customers...they had 80,000 in their database, and they found that 3,000 of them were winners....3.75% of their betting population, so for a sportsbook to kick someone out, it's plain greed.

I almost lived in Vegas at one time....at that time I didn't have the bankroll you need, so it wouldn't have gone too well I reckon. How long did you live there?

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Hey Indigo, which book kicked you out? Thats crazy man..

spottie2935 · Answer

Lived in Vegas 5 great years. I will go back in a couple of years. I am a croupier. Night shift til early morning. The early east coast night games start at 4pm so I get to watch them but the west coast games i don't see much.

Holy crap that juice in oz land is crazy!!!!

Yes I was using matchbook back in the good ole days here in the USA. Pinnacle and matchbook were the best. I would add a bet fair account and keep my bet online account for the early openers.

What a dream. In 10 or fifteen years I hope to be doing sports for my sole income. Everyone needs a goal in life mine is to be a winning punter.

spottie2935 · Answer

There is a real problem looming here in the USA. The seperation between the big wigs and the workers is getting too far apart. Ecommerce is growing so there is going to be less and less jobs due to technology. The front end employee is going to suffer big time in the coming years. The minimum wage is stressing the markets and they are talking a $15/ hr minimum wage. I get the fact that the front line employee could use the increase and that part would be awesome, but there is a cost to that and the cope rations will do everything to keep cutting corners. There are going to be a lot more people out of work in the coming years.

If anyone disagrees with me that's fine maybe you have more facts than I do. This is my own opinion. I don't care to debate this. I just have this feeling it's coming. Add all of this to the cop killings and useless attacks around the globe and I see your extra juice on a WNBA wager peanuts lol. Just kidding

spottie2935 · Answer

Steve Wynn hotels and a few other joint in Vegas have cut the blackjack odds to a 6-5 payout. Unless you bet bigger amounts. That is a fact.

These casino cooperations are building more and more casinos globally and they need more credit. The lending agency's want more and more steady income and balance sheets so they are shifting their business models to the big prices on alcohol and cabanas in the multi- million $ clubs. The clubs are now doing so much business that they can carry the big hotels income and revenue with out the big swing in the casino so the banks and analysts are steering the ownership to the sure thing. There are going to be less and less tables in the future Vegas and more machines. The old days are going bye bye slowly but surely

Indigo999 · Answer

Interesting Spottie about your take,...I am not there, but looking at things from afar, it saddens me what is going on in my country. Getting into politics and religion is a sure-fire way to start an argument, so I'll refrain, but what is going on with violence, politics, and financial/banking systems both in the U.S. and abroad is reaching a terminal point and from my study of finances and fiat monetary systems of countries, it could get worse, much worse. Countries are in so deep to their bankers, they're never going to get out.

Also, interesting about your take on Vegas, as I surmise that you're saying that it'll rely less on gaming in general and especially those gambling games that have swings in their profitability, for example sports betting, blackjack and roulette. Poker games and one armed bandits would be pretty consistent I would guess. There used to be bookies in Vegas that were not affiliated with the hotels, perhaps it'll go back to that.

I had a chance to go pro (as a gambler) as one year I made enough money to do it for the rest of my life. I took 6,000 dollars and made an amount I won't mention by doing blitzkrieg betting, I made 150 bets that football season and won 90 of them, (so my percentage was not outrageous, but I hit all of my huge bets).....I will say by the end of the football season I made two college bowl bets for 20,000 a piece and won them both. When the time came to play prevent defense and protect my bankroll, I didn't do it, and I lost it.....very painful lesson.

That was the time when there was a offshore sportsbook, AcesGold which I was using that offered Vig free betting 100 dollars bet to win 100 dollars for one night during the week WITH NO LIMITS, I think it was Friday nights, so it was like a Pinnacle on steroids and of course if you were semi-intelligent and not afraid of the risk of being stiffed, that is who you used.

That year I entered an online betting contest before the Superbook contest allowed proxies and won it going 44-21 on pro football,...was worth just 5,000 in compared to what the Superbook contest pays out nowadays it was peanuts.

A couple of years after I had my big year I heard that the owner of AcesGold was offering vig-free betting on the Super Bowl when New England was 14 point underdogs to the greatest show on turf, the Rams. He took in a ton of action on the Patriots, more than 14 million more than he took on the Rams, and didn't lay off and you know the rest of the story, New England upset them....and the guy disappeared without paying anyone. I never heard if anyone ever tracked him down (and gave him some concrete shoes) and AcesGold was no more,...but not before I got all of my money from them.

Indigo999 · Answer

After a winning week at WilliamHill.com.au I went to place a bet maybe a month ago, and if I recall correctly, they were offering odds of 1.80 each way with a limit of 50 dollars for me, and the odds were different on their page before I logged on, so I know they were not really exactly kicking my behind out the door, but just not allowing me to bet much of anything. William Hill has also bought Tom Waterhouse's book for 35 million and made him a general manager if I heard right, and they've also purchased Centrebet, so all of those books are controlled by British interests.

And of course if you are familiar with Oz books, the Australian licensing authority of which William Hill is prominent has taken away Pinnaclebet's license by disallowing anyone that had a license granted to them by the Norfolk Island regulating agency to be in the punting business in Australia. What a coincidence that the best sportsbook with the highest limits and best odds in Australia got their license taken away, when all of the other Oz sportsbooks had their own people on the gaming regulating board.

WEEK 5

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