week 5 lines, thoughts

11-7 ATS +3.4 units, season to date

BC in the first half looks ready to get stomped on.  Jennings?....he hasn't changed his spots

Early Indigo lines for next week.

     Home               Away

Ottawa     +3      Calgary  50

Edmonton -8       Toronto  54

BC           +3      Winnipeg 56

James Franklin wasn't a world beater, but Trestman was smart....he knows that winning the running game at home will often get you the win. 

Franklin will have to make some plays on the road to stay close next week.  Can they?  When a team is fortunate one week and they are on the road with an average or less quarterback usually I'll fade the less than stellar quarterback that just got a big win.

BC has a decent defense, but with Nichols, Winnipeg can be unstoppable.

Nothing stands out with the lines I've put out, but that is how it should be,....I'm putting out a line with my relative strengths of each team...will see what Mister Linemaker brings to the table.

Home divisional dogs playing the same team that they did last game have been 6-7 ATS off an away dog loss. 

BC

Home non-divisional favorites playing the same team they did last game when they lost as an away favorite    3-1

Eskimos 

I'd make an early lean to the Eskimos if the line is close to where I have it.

If the Over Under in the Stamps Red Blacks game is 50 I'll be very very happy. :)))

Indigo your losing me on your win's losses with your OV-UN's , I have to stop watching all your data base stuff , where not to far off I think my cal line should be more in line with yours coming off a bye , still like Win, and about the same on Tor game , keep it coming I still read them . Best of luck buddy

Hoody, I played the OVER when the line opened at 52' in the Edmonton game....the line subsequently moved up to 56 and I played the UNDER hoping that the game would fall on 53, 54, 55, or 56.

The total ended up at 37 (20-17)  so I won the UNDER bet and lost the over bet for 1/10 of a unit.

Away dogs the first 6 weeks of the season have been:

115-77 ATS, close to 60%

59-39 ATS versus non-divisional foes

56-39 ATS versus the division

Away non-playoff dogs after week six see their percentages drop from 60% to 52% to 196-176 ATS

Divisional away dogs  112-95 ATS

non-divisional dogs 84-81 ATS

Home dogs before week 6 have been 44-34, 56.4%

Home non-divisional dogs <week 6, 29-14 ATS

Home divisional dogs < week 6, 15-20 ATS

Home dogs after week 6, 85-85-6 ATS

Home divisional dogs after week 6, 45-49 ATS

Home non-divisional dogs after week 6, 40-36 ATS

And for all you esoteric types that believe that what happens ahead of us can influence what happens now....underdogs that will be underdogs their next game versus a team that will be a favorite next game, have been 85-117 ATS, 42%, all other underdogs have been 179-128 ATS, 58%, the exact opposite percentage.

Underdogs the first six weeks that had a greater amount of regular season wins than their opponent did last year have been 35-18 ATS.

This continues to be good past week six going 88-71 ATS the rest of the regular season.

Underdogs that won less games last year than their present opponent have been 101-73 ATS first 6 weeks.

After week 6, 144-141 ATS.

Underdogs this season have been 6-10 ATS, in only one year besides this one has early season underdogs hit at a rate <50%, going back to 2007, which is once out of 12 years.

If Edmonton is less than a 9 point home favorite to Toronto I will likely be on them.

If Ottawa is at least a 3 point home dog to Calgary I will likely be on them.

Mister Linemaker has spoken

Mine in parentheses

Ottawa     +3 (+3)  Calgary 54'  (50)

Edmonton -7  (-8)   Toronto 54 (54)

Anyone have reasons to give me why the BC line is not ou

Home non-divisional dogs by day of the week.

Thursday   11-4 ATS  (Ottawa plays on Thursday)

Friday        30-19 ATS

Saturday    12-17 ATS

Sunday       13-5 ATS

Here's a little tip.....Saturday games in A LOT of sports will be trend breaking days

Why?  I don't know, and for me, I don't need a rational explanation.....data rules.

would it be enough to get me off of a game if the game were on Saturday?  Yeah, it would, but in this case it's not, so no worries.

Play:

1)  Ottawa +3

My data has a lot of tendencies for this game to go OVER, and because my opinion on what the true total should be and my database are in conflict, most commonly I will pass the game in those circumstances.  Will give my subconscious mind a chance to work through those things for a night or two....we'll see if that changes.

In a typical bet deciding process my white angel sitting on my right shoulder has a little conversation with my dark angel sitting on my left....the dialogue goes something like this........

"I'm liking the Redblacks in this situation, and the data supports it."

Bad angel, "Fool!  The Stampeders never lose and even if you did like them, why not wait to see if the line will move in your favor?"

Good angel:  "Ottawa has played Calgary tough in the past, and fading teams that have peformed superiorly in the season-to-date is a moneymaker in the CFL....plus they are playing on day when underdogs typically cover, don't overthink this!

Bad angel:  "Do you really think that Ottawa can generate any offense against the Stamps' defense?  They held the defending champs less than 10 points on the road!"

Good angel:  It's tough to win on the road in the CFL, you'll see and Ottawa game Calgary all it could handle in Ottawa.....you need to get yourself a girlfriend, you're always agitated."

Ran some queries related to the Edmonton game related to turnovers margin average for the season so far

playoffs = 0 and HF  and not DIV  and playoffs=0   and tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0 

Yields a 39-54 ATS record relating to the situation regarding Edmonton as they have had a worse turnover ration this year so far, however when we add in that these two teams played each other in their last game, this moves to 7-1 ATS favoring Edmonton,....so I'm on the Eskimos....

playoffs = 0 and HF  and not DIV  and playoffs=0   and tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0  and po:team=o:team

Teams in that situation have won the game by an average of 12 points/game

Play:

2)  Edmonton -7

Leaning Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the other un-lined game, unless Travis Lulay is declared the starter...who, if you don't know, I have a man-crush on.  It is like a 10 point difference in the Lions' performance between Jennings and Lulay.....

I just do not know what is going through the brain(?) trust of BC's head that Travis Lulay has not been the starter though Lulay has been injured evidently....would give them an ever-so-slight pass on my lunacy meter if that were the case that he hasn't played this year.  

Of course, Jennings has been the face of BC's franchise now for a couple of seasons.....that IS lunacy, I tell you!!!!.....LUNACY!!

No line on the BC/Winnipeg game, my colleague FreakyFreddie has informed me that THE Travis Lulay will be getting the start against the Peggers....well, alright then, common sense may be prevailing in Vancouver.

Why are the linesmakers dragging their feet on this game?

Had one line go against me as Ottawa has gone from 3 to 3.5 which is a big move....it takes a lot for Vegas to move off of 3.  

In the other game my Toronto play which I got at 7 has moved to 7.5.....win one, lose one though in football the number lands on 3 more than it does 7, so the loss is bigger than my win.

Predicting line movement has always been an exercise in futility for me....I'm sure there are others out there that can know where the line will go to, not me.  I usually play games early in the week as you may have noticed and in low-market games like the CFL, hard-core/sharp money can and will  move the line to my disadvantage if I wait.  I wish that I could say that it is my money movin' the lines, but no, I'm not moving them.

Hey Indigo, Lulay starting is not in stone, they think its too early. I think they have to have guaranteed protection for him. Thats why the line isn't out yet, but I still think winnipeg will cover

On top of that the Edm line moved again

I got Edmonton -7 (-105), which makes me look really smart.....truth is, it is more that the general betting population or BIG money is loading up on Edmonton, which certainly doesn't guarantee a winning ticket, as I've mentioned before, "the masses are asses" and especially in the CFL in its betting history, the public usually goes down in flames.

I'll keep an eye out on this line, and if it goes to 10, I MAY take the other side with the intent  to middle the game.

Some sports from a betting standpoint the public often wins, like college football, when the line moves more than a 1/2 point from its opener, the early money is a winner more often than a loser.

Ice hockey, (maybe it's a Canadian thing), NFL football, NBA, and baseball the books do very well against the public.

Right now in the WNBA forum, most of the seasoned guys in there are having big-time winning seasons.

Whenever you see the books hesitant to put out a sport's lines, it means that they have gotten thrashed before and they are gun-shy about taking bets on a certain sport.

My view is that the public has won so far in the Crazy Football League.

And hey, what about the CFL putting in a 10th team, in Nova Scotia?   Sometimes those small provincial places without any other pro sports REALLY get behind their teams like Oklahoma City and Portland in the NBA.

In my database, home teams have lost EXACTLY by 3 points 5% of the time in the CFL during the regular seas.  

My sports book gives me  a buy-out ability,...the new updated Ottawa/Calgary line is +3.5  -105.   How my book works is that it pays 91 dollars for a winning 100 dollars risked.

Basically I have re-wagered my Ottawa bet to get the equivalent of Ottawa +3.5 -114 by buying out of my initial wager of Ottawa +3, and it cost me a 5% surcharge when there is a 5% chance that my wager would fall exactly on a number that would give me a draw rather than a winning wager.  The math in this case was break even there was no advantage or disadvantage mathematically to change the wager....any other line but 3 (or -3) and this likely would have been a bad idea from a pure math standpoint.

So, updated plays.

1)  Edmonton -7, -105

2)  Ottawa +3.5 -114

Gray Cup Champs +9.5 WTF?

Good fortune DB.

Play:

3)  Redblacks/Stamps UNDER 54'

Non-divisional home dogs that are >500 have been 4-3 ATS (-1.21) and 0-7 UNDER (-9.57) before week 7

But I do like the UN

CFL and The Under is money this year. 

1)   Ottawa +3'  loser

2)   Redblacks/Stampeders UNDER 54' UNDER winner 

Indigo...

I am a Canadian and a handicapper of College Foorball and International Basketball.

I am a "technical handicapper" and have just recently started utilizing SDQL.

I know your time is important, but could you run a Query for me? (Or better yet show me what the input language looks like?)

Would like to know CGY Stamps ATS record following a bye week since 2005)..

Thanks in advance and keep up the great work. I always appreciate your insights

Hi AG,

rest>10 and team

There is a group for noobies such as yourself called......sportsdatabase@googlegroups.com that helps those just starting out.  There is also a user's manual in the NFL part of killersports under the NFL section that has many of the parameters and coding abbreviations for all the football codes.

Good fortune to ya.

Ok then.  The linemaker finally put out a line in the BC/Peg game.

BC +4   (+3)  Winnipeg  54'  (56)

My first inclination was to take the OVER in this game, but upon running the database through its paces, UNDER is the tendency.

Here's a couple of queries you can plug and play into the white box in the CFL section of sportsdatabase or killersports.

PRSW<9 and HD and DIV   and o:PRSW>10 and total>51 

The query asks "how has a home divisional dog with a game total >51 that won <9 games last year versus a team that won more than 10 games last year done?"

The results are they've been 9-7 ATS and 4-13 UNDER.

And another one, 

"How has a home divisional dog done that played the same opponent last week?"

playoffs=0 and HD and DIV  and po:team=o:team

6-8 ATS and 7-7 OVER, nothing very exciting.

Finally here's one that asks 

"how does a home divisional dog with the turnover margin disadvantage do, early season?"

playoffs=0 and tA(TOM-o:TOM)-oA(TOM-o:TOM)>0 and HD and week<7 and DIV

5-10 ATS (-1.53), 6-9 O/U (-6.83)

The Travis Lulay factor for me is strong in a good way, but it is mitigated somewhat by the Bombers' 16-4 ATS record last 20 on the road.

Still have not drawn any conclusions, the data leans towards the Blue Bombers and UNDER.