Posted:
#1
STD 9-4, +4.8 units.
Five games this week.....nice! I am not predicting what Vegas' lines will be, but using what my line is, and comparing them to what the computers of Sin City are making 'em at.
We are obviously still in the first six weeks of the season, where dogs have ruled throughout the history of my database.
Wednesday
Ottawa -3.5 Montreal 52
Home favorites with a worse record than their present opponent have been 12-18 ATS first six weeks of the season. I like teams that can score on the road, as I have observed through the years that good offense/bad defensive teams are preferable to bad offense/good defense for a road team especially. One could look at the records of the great quarterbacks, Brees, Manning, Brady, Farve, Montana, etc of the NFL, almost without exception they have very good road records ATS. So, we come to the Als.....can we trust them to trade points on the road with the Redblacks? Can Durrant and company actually get their stuff together? Can he not throw the ball to the wrong team under duress?
Mister Linemaker probably isn't going to lure me into wanting to take the Als unless we get an absurd line of >=7.
Thursday
Hamilton +7.5 Edmonton 58
Well, Vegas is going to have to figure out how to ward off an avalanche of money on the Eskimos in this one. This line will be high as Hamilton has looked terrible in all facets of the game. They have no experience in the defensive secondary and Mister Riley and company are going to be throwing the ball all over the lot in this one. The Eskimos might score over 58 themselves.
The default play in the CFL is UNDER, but there will be points-aplenty in this one. Home non-divisional dogs with a worse record than their opponents have been 10-5 ATS first six weeks of the season. It's your move, Vegas.
Friday
BC -4.5 Bombers 55
This one will be interesting....a poster here, or maybe a television analyst said that Matt Nichols is 11-4 as a starter for the Bombers. All of the western divisional games should be hotly contested....they all have quarterbacks that can play and good defenses, except for the Sasquatches. BC off of 3 straight away wins....I'm interested in the Bombers,....I like that their defense that stood up well against the Argos' schemes and bent a lot but didn't break.
Saturday
Calgary -12.5 Green Riders 52
The Riders have improved this year, and are a quarterback away from being respectable, very much similar to the Bombers last year, when they gave the reigns to Matt Nichols who turned the fortunes of that franchise around. The coaching staff at some point is going to have to give someone else the ball to play quarterback for them, and until they do and we find out that he can play, it will difficult to play ON the Riders on the road in division games, because with their present quarterback commonly giving the opposition at least 6 free points every game, or killing drives when things have looked promising, it difficult to put hard earned on the Riders.
Here's a stat for you. Away divisional dogs getting greater than 7 points with a worse record than their present opponent have been 35-24 ATS (1.55) and 30-29 OVER (.30).
And, teams off a bye as away dogs have been 5-2 ATS (1-0 as away dog >7) and 2-5 OVER....Sasquatches.
Makes one get off the Stamps as a play for me, for sure. This one has the makings of an UNDER.
Monday
Toronto -3 Redblacks 56
Toronto has been terrible at home for quite a few years, but they have a Grey Cup winning coach on the sideline now, and it shows. They look great on offense and special teams and they are my pick to win the division. They didn't finish their drives against the Bombers and got jobbed by the refs last game, and dropped touchdown passes a few times, so they lost a game they could have/should have won. They had a very good situation ON them last game, and when teams don't perform like expected the previous game, they often over-perform their next game. Plus Ottawa will be playing a third game in a very short period of time, and they will have come off a game with the physical Alouettes. If the Redblacks are off a win, I'll definitely look to fade them here.
Lines will be out in the next 24 hours, and then the process of making picks begins again.
Love it!
0
Hot Forum Topics
