week 6 Indigo

0-3 for the week, 14-17 ATS for the season.

May sit things out for awhile....very poor results.

Western Division is now 13-2 versus the East....

They're 6-0 at home with the median win being by 14.5 points per game, and on the road they are 5-2 with the median win being by 3.5 points.

Khari Jones and the D-coordinator both were fired, which I think is a mistake,....I would think in all likelihood that Vernon Adams' days as the number one in Montreal are about over now as Jones gave Adams every chance to succeed and being finished with him is probably the right move for the organization.

If Masoli is out for awhile Ottawa has no chance of competing which would give them the opportunity to fire their LaPolice, which also is probably the right move.  Some guys are just better at being coordinators than they are as head coaches.

Edmonton looked completely outclassed and Nick Arbuckle I would expect to be cut sooner rather than later........it's doubtful any other team will pick him up.  They have to get rid of any high priced veterans and play all young guys as this is a lost year for them....there's no possible way they make the playoffs.

Average scoring per game is now up to 50.5 per game, almost exactly what it has been previous to covid.

CFL.ca staff writers' picks are now 2-5 ATS,  as they somehow have managed to under-perform even me.

          Indigo lines

Montreal -6  Edmonton  49.....we'll see if the Elks' qb is out...who exactly is gonna play qb for these two teams?

Winnipeg -5 Calgary  49

Toronto +2' Saskatchewan 47

Hamilton -2' Ottawa 44 with Masoli starting, without Masoli -9  38

You  need to keep it simple. To much worthless info your looking at when handicapping. Sports betting is not a science.

What do you look for in handicapping? I don't see anything he said or printed that I would say is worthless, I'll take any info if it helps.

What is worthless is coming on to someone else's thread with nothing of value to give to anyone....you've contributed nothing to the forum,  which often signfies you contribute little to society as a whole.....if you add it up, your net input is a detriment to the world and to yourself.

What a pity.

@NickleBet

 Trevor Harris - 1 TD, 3 INTs this year.  Of the 9 CFL QBs that have at least 70 pass attempts this season, TH ranks 7th in Efficiency.

@Indigo999

 Obviously I have to reply to your comment. The forum is to help betters not be bookies helpers which your Indigo blah blah stats show that have been recorded. Your already throwing stats for the NFL season already. If I'm not mistaken, your NFL picks where so poor from last year you decided to take a break, which anyone picking losers should do. A lot of people follow you because of the time your put forth in your threads but what purpose does it help if you not good at it. Wasn't getting on your case but all that reading is not info that makes sense in capping games moving on. On to your comments about me. you hit the nail on the head. I haven't done nothing in my life. Completed 4 years of active military duty, retired after 30+ years in the airline industry. Have a great pension that will last till I pass on. Traveled to places you have only dreamed about. { Now that's enough of my useless information } Good luck with all your studying. 

@Verdict

Interesting life story, but it is completely free of CFL handicapping info.  Indigo999's overall CFL handicapping record is pretty solid.  Yours does not exist.

If you can't contribute something positive (which would include strong actual reasons for fading I9), just go away.

LOL......belittling or castigating others or what they do to build themselves up is in the realm of sociopathic or narcissistic behaviour., right?...they do that in the military as you would well know.  Puffing out your chest and telling the world what you've done....not too much different.

As Einstein said, "Make things simple as possible, but no simpler"....perhaps the simple  way will work for you and you'd consider sharing your concepts with the group, we welcome input that is almost always positive.

Otherwise, you are more of a problem than  a solution.

Llnes are out at bet365.

Indigo on left, bookie's on right. 

Masoli likely out for many weeks.....it's a shame because the dropoff from Masoli to Evans is pretty steep, I put it at about 7 points.  At least it is looking like he did not damage his ACL which is what I would have guessed from watching the play.

Montreal -6  Edmonton  49.......................Alouettes    -7'     48          

Winnipeg -5 Calgary  49...........................Bombers     -4     45'

Toronto   +2' Saskatchewan 47.................Argonauts  +2'    44

Hamilton -9 Ottawa 38.............................Hamilton    -6'    44  

Ooh-rah .. Mark Twain said: Never argue with a fool. Onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. 

Agreed, this conversation is over.

Non-divisional away teams in 2022....5-7 ATS

Divisional away teams 5-1 ATS

West division away teams 7-2 ATS

a)  Away non-divisional dogs with a winning percentage of less than 33% off a home loss have only been 6-12 ATS (-7.5), average margin in the game was over -16 points per game.....Elks

b)  Teams in a sequence of Home dog win, away loss and now home favorites have been 4-21 ATS (-7.7), and 12-14 straight up (-1.6)....this moves to 2-12 ATS (-11.9), 3-11  straight up (-4.9) in non-divisional games.......Alouettes

CFL.ca staff writer's picks when at least 5 out of 6 are on one side have been 2-5 ATS since I started tracking in  week 3....this week they are on the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats.

c)  After week 3, away dogs playing an unbeaten foe have been 14-5-1 ATS (+4.3), 7-13 straight up (-3.9)....this moves to 7-2-1 ATS if the line is less than 6.5 points, and 6-4 straight up.  Regardless of line, if the game is a divisional game the away dog has gone 4-0 ATS, 2-2 straight up (+4.2) and 0-4 o/u (-18.0)......Stampeders

d)  Away divisional dogs off at least four straight losses have been 7-5 ATS.....Redblacks

e)  Home divisional favorites off four straight losses have been 17-16 ATS, 10-23 o/u (-4.8).....Tiger Cats

f)  When both teams are off four or more straight losses in a divisional game the away dog has been 13-8-1 (+1.0) and 6-16 straight up (-4.9),  7-15 o/u.....average score 22-26.5.......Redblacks

Plays:

1)  Stampeders +4

2)  Stamps UNDER 47'

3)  Redblacks UNDER 44'

@Indigo999

 Good information as usual.  I find it comforting knowing you're doing your analysis week after week regardless of record or fat headed smoes who come into your thread just to insult.   I don't always read everything but sometimes when I am on the fence on a game, I will check what analysis you have on that particular game (and do the opposite - just kidding).  So thank you fine Sir.

Since I have had an amazing start to the CFL I will do the honorable thing and jinx myself by offering my leans that nobody has asked me for...lol.  Sorry I9.  I know I should do it in my own thread but I don't plan on divulging on a regular basis and not looking for the ongoing attention.  It is more a test of the jinx narrative I believe in and want to go on record showing.  If true.  I strongly encourage fading all my picks if history is to be believed.  

Ott +6.5  hopefully goes up before game time.  Their D could have a great game.

Mont -8  Edmonton stinks.  Also, players usually respond after a firing since it forces them to look in the mirror instead of blaming the coach who is no longer there.

Win -4 at home.  Easy. 

Tor +3   It is at +2.5 but will wait or buy the hook.  Sask is not great on the road and could lose outright.

Ja, the ol' first-time poster's jinx.....gotta watch out for it.

Thanks for stopping by...

Some more historical data.

Home divisional favorites of less than 6 points in weeks 1-11.....42-57-3  ATS (-1.2), 56-45-1 straight up (+2.3)....average line/total...-3.54 51.53....average score 27.6-25.2

If both teams were playoff teams prior season 14-20-1 ATS (-3.1), 21-14 straight up (+3.4)...average final score 28.5-28.

Another query I asked "how do defending champs do as home favorites?".....in database language I asked how a team has done that didn't lose in the playoffs last season.....51-68-3 ATS (+0.6), 51-69-2 o/u (-1.6)....in-division home favorites of less than 6, defending champs  have been 13-21-2 ATS (+1), and only 19-16-1 straight up, average score 26.7-22-9.....if the game is week 11 or less, 6-12-2 ATS, 10-9-1 SU.

Blue Bombers

HF and tpS(L@playoffs)=0 and division=o:division and week<12 and line>-6

And, as those that tune in once-in-awhile would know, I use this kind of stuff to make picks, and seeing that my picks W/L record has been below the Mendoza line this year, things have not followed history this season, so far.   We'll  see if there some positive regression in the coming weeks.  I hate losing and also that others might have lost on the data or picks that I have provided...I burned some incense to the gambllng gods today and I threw out my lucky underwear that I've worn everyday since the Superbowl, and I think those might have been the causes of the problem.

Picks......adding:

4)  Elks +9'

____________________

3)  Stamps +4

2)  Stamps UNDER 47'

1)  Hamilton UNDER 44'

@Verdict

 Well then, you deserve a medal, a medal for being a Karen! Get the f&&k outta here troll, go put a fresh new diaper on and go drink your geritol. Your bedtime is 8pm you wont even see the game anyways troll

Good info indigo

@Indigo999

 I was only kidding about fading my picks. 

I also just about talked myself out of taking Montreal tonight.  Cornelius is big and has a good arm from when I last remember.  I thought he was going to be a starter for years to come but faded away for some reason.  Now he gets another shot so I was tempted to take Elks with a big +8.  However, the Elks aren't even a team.  There is no cohesion within the group and they stink in every category.  They are just a group of guys going through the motions to get paid.  They are an embarrassment.  Montreal had a bye and the line made up with ex Elks will be motivated in making Elk steaks this evening.  Montreal wins by a million....

I'd make it a 5 unit play if you'd give me the Elks at +999,999......

good fortune this weekend.

We get the fortunate win.....CFL at its craziest.

West Division teams are just crushing the East, which would keep me off of the Argonauts versus the Sasquatches.  

Edmonton actually has played pretty well on the road....we might consider backing them as away dogs and avoid them at home.

Plays:

1)  Edmonton +9' winner

_____________________________

2)  Calgary +4

3)  Calgary UNDER 47'

4)  Hamilton UNDER 44'

Probably 80/20 angles/gut.

In the last five years, teams in all sports that are upper echelon tend to cover more on the road than at home.  I like the fact that Calgary can throw the ball and they have a coach that can at least match it with O'Shea.   Plus I feel that a two-time  champion aren't going to get over-excited in the regular season, whereas an underdog challenger will.

I post 90% of the CFL trends I find on this forum , there's a couple I don't post and won't, but they aren't relevant to this game. 

Best of luck to ya....

I am going make a correction for a couple of angles that I posted in the HTC/Ottawa game.  Sometimes what is queried comes out differently on separate entries....don't know why.

  a)  In the case of Hamilton, a home divisional favorite off at least four straight losses has been 8-4 ATS (+9.0), 9-3 SU (+12.0), 3-8-1 o/u (-7.7)....average line/total  -3.86, 49.83...........average score........27.6-14.6.

HF and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and pppp:L and division=o:division

  b)  In the case of Ottawa, an away divisional dog off four straight losses has been 16-18 ATS (-2.6), 5-29 straight up (-10.5), 15-18-1 (+0.9)

AD and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and pppp:L and division=o:division

When both teams have lost at least 4 straight games the away divisional dog has been 1-2 ATS (-7.8), 0-3 straight up (-12.7) and 0-3 o/u (-10.8).....average line/total  +4.83, 48.17............average score 12.3-25

c)  Here's another angle that is interesting.

An away divisional dog  whose next week's line will be at least 3 points stronger than their this weeks opponent's line.....148-78 ATS (+4.5), 106-122 straight up (+0.3), average line +4.25, average score 26.3-26....Redblacks

We'll discuss this as our query gets into the realm of metaphysics which many may not put much stock in.  The sages and mystics say that time is not linear and if you can agree with this, then this MAY hold water with you,.......if you don't believe this, then you will disregard, or possibly get uptight about it.  Remember I am not here to sell you on my ideas, I put out the information and it's up to you to decide if you resonate with a concept or angle, or not.  Telling me that something is garbage isn't going to change MY mind, just like I'm not trying to change yours......we all perceive the world differently, if you haven't already realized this.

This same type of thing failed miserably in a two unit play on Hamilton a couple of weeks ago and the reasoning fell apart for reasons I'll explain below.

We are predicting a future betting line and those lines will change based on what happens now, so I have used a cushion of three points as a buffer.........the lines at this point in the season will not change more than 3 points based on what happened last week.  I am using Hoody's lines which I find to be reliable.

Ottawa is about a 7 point dog this week, and next week they play the Als at home, they will be anywhere from a zero to 3 point favorite versus the Als based on the Als' collapse versus the worst team in the league last night.  The Tiger-Cats go on the road next game to BC where they will be a 4-7 point away dog.....so Ottawa's next game line will be stronger than the Tiger Cats', by at least 6 points, which could change slightly if the Tiger Cats blow out the Redblacks tomorrow.....regardless of what transpires tomorrow the Cats will not be anything less than a 3 point away dog, so we can stipulate that the difference between the two teams' future lines will be at least 3 points.

In the case of the Tiger Cats a couple of weeks ago, they failed under this scenario and the predicted line became skewed so that the angle wasn't relevant,...hence in the future when I use this I will use a three point buffer

The query text for this is this....

AD and n:line-on:line<-3 and n:playoffs=0, 148-78 ATS (+4.5, 65.5%)

When we stipulate that  the away dog just has to have a stronger line (not by at least 3 points or more like the first example) this has been 210-110 ATS, so it has been even stronger  with the lesser stipulation.

AD and n:line-on:line<0  and n:playoffs=0, 210-110 ATS (+4.1, 65.6%)...this performs slightly less well if this is a divisional matchup at 62.2%.

If we reverse this and say that the away dog's line will be weaker the next game than their this week's opponent we get 148-177 ATS (-3.5, 45.5%), so you can see a pretty big difference in results.

Now, I don't know if I will play the Redblacks, as watching Caleb Evans last week he certainly didn't pass the eye test.  However, the Tiger Cats' Evans at qb has been the worst player in the CFL so far this season, even worse than Arbuckle has been.  I suppose the argument  could be, "well look at what happened with the Elks last week!!" upon watching them last week you'd swear they'd never win another game and then look what happened last night.  I've played the Tiger Cats as a  KOC contest  play, but cooler heads have prevailed and I haven't put any cold hard cash on the game, but if I do, it'll be on the Redblacks.

The historical data strongly iof "c" strongly supports the Redblacks, while "a" and "b" supports the Tiger Cats.....that is how it works out sometimes.

Next week Indigo lines.....I do this to see the difference between what our perception of the relative strengths of the teams are now  and how they will change after this week's games are completed.

Will these lines be accurate?....highly doubtful as we all know that was has happened most recently colors our point of view most strongly....recency bias.   However, we're not trying to predict lines, only to be aware of the amount of change that takes place based off of the most recent game.

Indigo next week lines

Ottawa           -2'  Montreal 48

BC                 -6   Hamilton 50

Edmonton      +9  Winnipeg 50

Saskatchewan -7  Toronto   46