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week 6 relative strength lines, picks

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Posted: #1
11-6-1 STD

Montreal and Sasquatch qbs are holding their teams back...they can cover as dogs, because after all this IS the CFL, but they are hold-your-nose type games.  I'd much rather be backing teams with quarterbacks that can play.  

The refereeing the last couple of weeks has been abysmal, and hearing from long-term watchers it seems that this has been the case for a long time.  Two plays in particular come to mind.  Two weeks ago a touchdown was disallowed on a kick return which cost a woman a million bucks when a guy fell down 5 yards behind the play as the returner was taking the ball into the end zone...the poor guy that got called for the penalty,.....I don't know if he even touched him, but if he did he wasn't trying to block him.  The play was called back due to an illegal block.

Then, this week a guy was hit as he threw and the ball went backwards, which should have been deemed a lateral and the play should have continued which would have led to a a return touchdown for the Redblacks.....THOSE are the kinds of plays that should be able to be reversed, not the pitty-pat pass interference calls.  It is the errors of judgement that need to be addressed in all codes of sport. and there should be not rules or regulations that would not allow these to be changed.  When I hear the words, "that play is not allowed to be overturned" I  cringe because if you are going to make it a game that calls that are wrong can be righted, then those are the ones that should be.

These lines below are based on my view of the strengths of the teams, NOT what I think Vegas will put out.  Last week I had, I believe the Bombers as 4 point dogs to the Lions,..they opened at 8 and moved to 4 or even less by game time.  It seems there's one or two of these lines put out a week now, which I find to be interesting....there is still a human element to the linemaker's lines and I don't think they are paying that much attention to the CFL.  Perhaps they don't need to as perhaps the handle on CFL games is much lower than other sports.   Someone who has worked at a sportsbook could maybe verify that. 

I had a guy on another thread tell me that this a crappy product, among his other infantile remarks....I expect this poster, Mommy's Boy will be making an appearance in this thread, don't you worry, he shows up like clockwork, the guy is great value...

Anyway, I don't agree that it's poor and who cares anyway?....if there's an edge, we'll be betting the Irish hopscotch finals if there's money to be made.

Winnipeg -6.5    Montreal  52

Edmonton -3  BC   58

Calgary -13  Hamilton 56

Sask +3        Toronto 55


BC and perhaps Montreal would be likely plays at close to those numbers.....Hamilton looks unbackable to me right now,, as everything seems to be wrong with them.  In particular their offensive line and their secondary play has been very bad.

We'll return when lines are posted in the next 24 hours.

Good fortune.






 
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Posted: #2
The Greek has numbers out and the other sportsbook will be soon to follow.

My estimated strength lines are in brackets.

Winnipeg         -4.5         (-6.5)    Montreal     55      (52)

Edmonton        -3            (-3)       Lions          54.5   (58)

Calgary           -12.5       (-13)      Hamilton     54.5   (56)

Saskatchewan -2           (+2)       Toronto       52.5   (55)

A few surprises as there always is,....the total in the Montreal game is a few points higher than it should be, probably based on the Bombers big offense/poor defense against BC.  Montreal will slow the pace down and take a half to get untracked on offense, they always do....without doing any research I'm leaning UNDER.

By the same token the EE/BC game looks absurdly low.  As I've said before, the default play is UNDER in the CFL, and I'll need some past history to back up an OVER play.  The only play that I played this year OVER was the Hamilton/Edmonton game and that only went OVER in the last few minutes and that was for like 1/10th of a unit that I didn't post.

Hamilton finally looked like it had a pulse last weekend, but let's face it, you have to win at home, at least some of the time.  You can't blow fourth quarter leads on your home turf.  Calgary might sleepwalk through this game, and still cover.  Am I going to take a 12.5 point favorite?........no, we'll let the Calgary homers  of the world do that.  There are those bettors and stock market investors that buy when the price is right or on a dip...they're called swing traders in the market, and some do very well, as well  there are a limited amount of individuals that do that in the sports world....one particular guy on this forum does that kind of betting...I'm sure we'll hear from him on this game as this is a classic hold-your-nose wager that some, or more likely in this case, very few people will go for, however, we're not following the herd to make money in the sports betting world.  Still, this line would have to go north of 14 for me to contemplate a ducket on the pathetic-so-far Tiger Cats.

Saskatchewan a favorite?  They were favorites of a similar amount a few weeks ago to Hamilton and now they are playing the Argos who in my estimation are about 8 points/game better than Hamilton.

Pinnacle and the like should be up in the next 12 hours.
 
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Posted: #3
The total of the Montreal/Peg game is at 51, which is about where it should be.....someone fell asleep at the wheel making the total and either some early betting pulverized this line or cooler heads prevailed and put it in it's proper place.  Goes to show that line making is still an opinion and not an exact science.  And EVERYONE's perception differs from everyone else.
 
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Posted: #4
we agree on many things this week !  

I like that a lot 
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Posted: #5
GL this week Indigo.. Forget about the trolls mate. No time for posters like that. Typical trolls though, bash a poster that actually posts his plays but then they are too scared to post their own. Your record is well above 50% as well so unsure why he is whining about "tailing" you. Love that part of it, he bashes yet tails your plays. Clear the head, get rid of the poster out of your thoughts and lets chat some football..

Thursday Night is a classic game of 2 teams under performing big time. I still don't know how the Als turned the ball over 4 times last game as well as threw for 400+ yards. I highly recommend you check out how teams do after 2+ interceptions as a  small road dog of +5 or less after a loss.

p:L and p:INT>=2 and AD and line<=5

The Bombers played their hearts out in that 3Q only to blow the entire game.. They would be devastating.  I really like the Bombers and Nicholls but something doesn't seem right this year like last season... 
 
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Posted: #6
Thanks for the query Aussie and the well wishes from the both of you.

Plays for the week....I may have one more, we'll see.

1)  Montreal +4

This and perhaps next week are the last weeks where dogs have historically ruled....then it becomes much more evenly divided between favorites and underdogs covering.

If the Als only had a quarterback that could be depended on, they would be a top 3 team....we'll hope and pray that Durrant is not Dr. Jeckyl, but Mr. Hyde for this game.

2)  BC +3

Expect that BC will get their revenge at the Eskimos whose record has outpaced their on-the-field performances....Almost losing to the Tiger Cats?  I'm not backing them as favorites in this league off a performance like that, but we'll put the cash on the team that have been road warriors this year.  Travis Lulay has played as well as any qb in the league....why don't the Riders or the Als offer heaven and earth to the Lions for him?

3)  Riders/Argos OVER 53.5

Fits a query in my database that has gone OVER by more than 10 points/game.  Argos remain a great road/poor home team...maybe they need to exchange home and visitor locker rooms at their home stadium or something.  Expect the focus for the Riders to be on their offense this week after  they stunk it up last week against Calgary.  They've scored and allowed plenty versus the Tiger Cats and Bombers at home previously.

Mommy's Boy where are you?  Who you picking this week budday?  I'd love to know.


 
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Posted: #7
Indigo. Love the BC play. Like you I also have a Man crush on Wally. Living in Calgary I was spoiled watching him lead the Stamps to years of dominance. Also like the Als. They won handily in Winnipeg last year. I'm not saying that translates to an auto win this year, but I feel they have an upgrade at QB. I think you might be a little hard on DD. He's still new to the team and his coach. I think he's pretty legit still in my opinion. I'm pissed the line came down on Pinnacle to 3.5. I'm shocked Montreal is being backed after Winnipegs performance in BC. I'm hoping it moves back to 4 and I'm gonna pounce. Picked up a copy of that Michael Konik book. Loved it! Thanks for the recommendation. Good luck this week
 
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Posted: #8
Good one Aussie

modifying the date to stay more current the over is hotter.  This is a low total for a team like Winnipeg.   If Montreal is to get overs they are going to need low totals and play high scoring teams.  This is the case this week.

p:L and p:INT>=2 and AD and line<=5 and date >=20140101


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Posted: #9
I like your 3  !  I am excited to see your record after this week.  Strong possibility of 3 -0

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Posted: #10
Good to see you guys and thanks for the contributions to the thread.

I'm not living in north america, so I just woke up to see a ton of line movement. 

I did also take a 1/3 of a unit on the BC moneyline before the move, but the price I got was so pathetic that there's no difference between the better book's line/moneyline correlation at 2.5 and what I got at 3.  Such is life betting with the British books in Australia.   Matchbook, an exchange who typically offers the best prices is now offering CFL, though their take is small and basically they are booking games themselves and not getting much matched betting, so one doesn't know until game time what the actual liquidity is on that particular game.  One can only hope that when the USA/Canada offers legal  betting that they will go the exchange route, as it benefits the consumer (us) with better prices and it takes all of the risk out of it for the bookmaker, so the bookmaker doesn't care if it has winners in its betting population....similar to parimutuel betting in horse racing...the house collects its cut first and pays the rest off to the player, matchbook has a rake of about 2 percent.  During college and NFL betting the prices one gets is much better than Pinnacle's which is saying a lot.

BC moved  down to 2.5, Montreal moved down to 3, Saskatchewan moved up to a juiced 3 and Calgary moved up to 13.  

Now I am tempted to take the Argos.....we'll wait on either further developments.....could holding out until game time yield a 3.5 or 4?  I am the world's worst at predicting line movement....it is the "leak" in my game.  If someone has a legitimate way of determining line movement I'm all ears.  Perhaps this is when having a connection to a sportsbook employee would pay dividends.

And the explanation of a possible line movement is NOT THIS....."Oh yeah, it's obvious that money is coming in on team A, so if you want Team B, wait you'll get a better price by game time."

The question is, "how is it obvious?"........

by what some guy consensus website is saying?  If someone knows a cartel that moves big money that historically moves lines and they like certain games/teams, ok, that is an acceptable connection and explanation. And of course often when a question like this is postulated we'll get some yokel after the game that said, "I just knew the line would move this way......yada, yada, yada."  Or even better...."I just knew your pick of Team A would lose."  And the latest,...."I guess your computer isn't that great."....hahaha.
 
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Posted: #11
Turnover margin is a big predictor of who covers and/or wins football games.

Teams with the turnover margin advantage have covered 70.8% of the time in my database history during the regular season after week 4.

405-167-8 ATS

TOM<0 and playoffs=0

Turnovers tend to regress to the mean, which means a team that has had a better average turnover margin going into the game tends to regress.

A home favorite with an average advantage of >.5 turnovers/game has been 136-164-3 ATS.

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)<.5 and playoffs=0 and HF and week>4

One can play around with the parameters  "week", "day" and "DIV" or "not DIV" to narrow your results down.

One filter that I like to use is to bring team records into it....if I want to find out how a team does as a home favorite with a better record than their present opponent with an average turnover margin advantage of at least >.5/game.....we get.....

tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)<.5 and playoffs=0 and HF and week>4 and tA(W)>oA(W)

89-116-3 ATS 43.4%    
87-118-3 O/U 42.4%

Those teams that qualify this week are:  Eskimos, Stamps, Bombers.

Remember turnovers are highly predictive of pointspread success, and they tend to NOT continue as they have been going previously, so we look to fade those teams with past turnover success.


 
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Posted: #12
For you query fanatics....

HF and tA(W)>oA(W)  and oA(W)=0         Careful, this is 4-1 ATS after week 4

8-19-1    Calgary

8-20   O/U



HF and tA(W)>oA(W)  and tA(W)=1 

6-22 ATS   Edmonton

9-20  O/U
 
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Posted: #13
Do you mind telling me what database your running those queries? Thanks in advanced.
 
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Posted: #14
Hi Loroja....sportsdatabase and/or killersports, they use the same data.
 
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Posted: #15

Als +4  Win

Have to feel for the Alouettes moneyline players....talk about grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.  Time stands still in the last 3 minutes of CFL football, the last three minutes is the equivalent of an extra 6 minutes in regular time. 

If I'm the  Als coach,  I cut the dude who leads with his helmet on a sack with a chance to win the game.  Was Harris really in at the goal line? I think his knee was down before he crossed, but are they really going to overturn the call in the Bomber's house?

And what about the play where the Als receiver gets the ball popped out, the ball goes to the sideline and he inexplicably keeps the ball in like you'd do in a basketball game?  The Als receiver who picks it up falls down at the 1 yard line and the Als don't get the ball in, but have to kick a field goal, which ultimately cost them the game. 

Bombers pulled one out of their fools, but give them credit, they kept playing.


 
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Posted: #16

pulled one out of their "fools"


as****ses

 
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Posted: #17
Good Post Veteran,

 I am glad that I am not the only one with the same thoughts, I believe those 2 references were the same week I watched and saw 4 flags thrown by coaches and all overturned. I don't like where the game is heading too many questionable calls and coach's challenges. 

Edmonton will have their wakeup call coming soon if not tomorrow, will be some great football weather.

Good luck Guys
 
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Posted: #18
Nice to see you and hear your thoughts MacedonianQ.....I have to tell the truth, I've never had an exchange with anyone from Macedonia before......

 
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Posted: #19
5)    Toronto +3

I set my personal line as the  Argos being 3 point favorites in this one.....I am putting cash on my opinion that the bookies and the market are wrong.  Nothing personal Sasquatch fans, I think your team has improved this year.  I'm getting a Grey Cup winning coach as a dog, whose team can put up points versus  someone that has played like a  7 or 8 win team.  I expect both teams to put up points.
 
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Posted: #20
Hot damn!! the peggers came back!!


had 700 on peg ml and doubled down 650 -3.5 at the half.

Never on the right side of those miracle comebacks!


 
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Posted: #21
You bugger you were right again with Montreal. Glad you like B.C. and Toronto
 
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Posted: #22
what a game and nice win we had it was fun to watch and i feel so strong about the Al's.  

Tonight is a coin flip in my opinion.  

I am with you on the Argo's.  I never like them giving points but I like them week after they are favorites and fail.  Should be a nice line coming if things go as I see them. 

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Posted: #23
It was all according to your diabolical plan to win it in the last 3 seconds, right piggypick?........congrats.

Nice to win one like that, as long as you didn't throw something through your television before the end.
 
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Posted: #24
Sask -3.5
 
 
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Posted: #25
HAHA no, i turned it off before the end of the game so i wouldn't smash it.

I read recap and box score and it really was a miracle win.

With you on argos 3.5 and a fade of the jays parlay for 100.

 Good luck.

Your insight in this cfl forum is much appreciated.
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