The CFL is back to where it usually is....
1) unpredictable
2) half the game happens in the last 3 minutes
3) doesn't make sense
4) upsets rule
1) Hamilton -5 Ottawa 53'
Divisional home favorites off a loss versus a team off a win with a worse winning percentage than their opponents have covered 60% of the time and UNDERs have cashed 60% of the time.
Montreal is who we thought they are, which is terrible.....100% of the fault of Montreal's dismal product they've put out on the field goes to the management....it was some higher up that before the season that said,
"Drew Willy is an excellent quarterback!"
Yes, right, what rose colored glasses were you looking at?
Drew Willy will be out of the league next year. Montreal has to get a star to play quarterback for the sake of the sanity of that organization and all of its fans. Their games are basically unwatchable.
Week 7 Indigo lines
Home team line away team total
Alouettes +6 Eskimos 52
Bombers -11 Argonauts 53'
Tiger Cats -5 Redblacks 53'
Roughriders +6 Stampeders 50
Very early opinions, I think a truckload of points get scored in the Tiger Cats/Redblacks game,...Tiger Cats are due to bust out and if the Cats were to lose this weekend I think that Johnny M will get the ball going forward. Jeremiah Masoli would be feeling the pressure to produce this game.
Roughriders can play smashmouth with the Stamps, but will Brandon Bridge take care of the ball against the Stamps' secondary? Guys like me usually want to fade teams that are going really well over at least a couple of consecutive weeks of covering, but with the Stamps this has not been a money making strategy the last few seasons in the regular season, as the parity and regression we normally like to bet on to happen, doesn't in the CFL.
In other words, it really, really difficult if you like money to bet against the Stamps regular season, or to play ON the Alouettes.
Wow, just heard the news about Manziel going to the Alouettes. EVERYTHING changes for them. Finally, they did a move that can bring them respectability and put fans in the seats all in one swoop. He ought to be playing within a couple of weeks, and I'll give him a month to get acclimated to the CFL game.
I don't know the guys Hamilton acquired besides the draft picks, but it isn't hurting them that is for sure, they'll just have to find another guy to hold Masoli's clipboard and that is about it.
Like I said before, if I am living in Canada, I am paying to watch him play....he'll be living in the high life again, we'll see what fame and fortune does to him this time....he's only 25 years old and what young males haven't done something they were not too proud of before that? There's not too many guys walking around that have put up 40 on Alabama's defence, I give him the benefit of the doubt.
This will be a week where data rules, nothing stands out before the lines have been made public. I actually like Toronto this week if the line >10 points as they fit into a 28-5 ATS parameter, however a non-division home favorite playing the same opponent as last week that won last week as an away favorite (Winnipeg) by >10 points has been 6-1-1 ATS, winning straight up by an average of >17 points.
Saskatchewan coming off two upset wins look due to get thrashed by the Stamps. Bridge was slingin' it last game against a good defense.....I have my doubts whether he'll be a able to replicate that performance versus the best defense. Teams off two straight dog wins, now as a home dog have been 1-5 ATS (-9.83) and 0-6 O/U (-7.75) and 1-5 straight up (-12.33).....could possibly be one of the rare occasions that I take a road favorite. Bridge played versus the Stamps last year in the cold conditions @home and kept the game under a touchdown as he led his team down the field to score on an alley-oop pass to get the home dog cover.
Redblacks have been very good on the road, but if the Cats are less than -7 I'm on them, as this is my strongest vibe play.
Montreal? The linemaker is gonna have to make the Alouettes at least semi-palatable to the betting public and Edmonton's defense has not exactly been stellar. They could pique my interest north of +7, or possibly less. Everybody and his mother will be on the Eskimos, which is of course a huge sign in the CFL to take the opposing team.
Will see what Vinny, the linemaker has in store for us.
Opening lines are open....my lines in parentheses.
Home line Visitor total
Montreal NL (+6) Edmonton NL (52)
Winnipeg -9' (-11) Toronto 53 (53')
Hamilton -4 (-5) Ottawa 54' (53')
Sask +7 (+6) Calgary 47' (50)
Looks like the books to see if the "Here's Johnny" show will start this week or not....being a bit paranoid aren'tcha bookies?
Only The Greek has this week's games up. No huge differences in my lines like in past weeks. Would have liked to see the line higher in the Toronto game, and this looks like an attempt to attract some early Bombers' money. The line should go higher as the week progresses.
Looking at the lines, I probably did put the total on the Riders/Stamps game too high as that should be a defensive slugfest.
Season to date 17-10
Play:
1) Hamilton -3'
After the first few weeks, home divisional favorites with a worse record than their visiting opponents have done well. This will be for first place and though I've hedged out of my Hamilton to win the Grey Cup bet, I still think they're the best team in the division.
Play:
2) Argonauts +11
The line moved to exactly where I had it.....possibly this will move even higher, but I'm satisfied at getting it a eleven. Early season Friday night non-division dogs have been 31-6 ATS, winning straight up 47% of the time.
AD and day = Friday and not DIV and week<8
If we put in the parameters of having the yards per pass differential disadvantage and our play ON team being off a loss and the opponent being off a win, this moves to 10-1-1 ATS, with the only loss being a 7 point loser on a line of 6.5.
AD and day = Friday and not DIV and week<8 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)<0 and p:L and op:W
Argos getting humongous points it is
I don't pay much attention to team trends, however the Roughriders have been the best home dog in the regular season CFL going 19-11 ATS. The Stamps have been 33-25 ATS as road favorites.
Still waiting on the Als/Esks line. I'd like to see a line of +7 to take the Alouettes....however I think it will be around 5 or 5'.
Play:
3) Roughriders +6'
I am using this query:
HD and DIV and tA(W)<oA(W) and tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0 and tA(W)>.5
which gives me a 5-3-2 ATS record, however in only 2 of the 10 games did the visitor win by 7 or more.....the Stampeders were involved as a visiting favorite in 5 of those games, in none of them did they win the game by more than 6 points and they lost straight up in two of them. Brandon Bridge quarterbacked against the Riders last season when they went down to the Stamps 9-15.
Deciphering the coding, we are taking a home dog (HD), with a lesser winning percentage (tA(W)<oA(W)), with a turnover margin disadvantage, that has a >500 winning percentage.
In the King of Covers contest, 65% of the public is on the Stamps. so we often will fade who the public loves.
Do I love, love, love the Riders? No, it's scary to bet against the Stamps....physically the Roughriders match up well with Stamps, probably better than any team in the league. Bo Levi hasn't really been crushing the competition this season and he has been carrying an injury.
Smashmouth football, we're takin' heap big points, Kimosabe.
Here's another very interesting query.
tA(ats margin)>10 and F
When a team is covering by an average of >10 points/game (Bombers, Stampeders) in their next game they are:
25-35-1 ATS (-0.11)
24-36-1 O/U (-2.48)
When a team is losing to the spread by -10 points/game (no indicated teams) in their next game they have been:
35-27-1 ATS (+1.70)
28-34-1 O/U (-1.71)
Regression lives on.
Indigo....love your weekly contribution. Sidenotes-Westerman is a 33 y.o. DE/DT who played a few years with the NFL Jets and is quite adept at the DE position and, I am certain, you recall 4.25 40m speedy 30 y.o. WR Chris Williams whom the Ticats had in his earliest CFL tenure, where he set all kinds of records as a wideout and ST returner, until a contractual gaffe by his agent rep freed him whereupon he tried his hand in the big league and then came back to Ottawa. He is currently nursing a hammy but if he gets healthy and on the same page as Masoli....look out!
Thanks for the information and tweaked queries....I love it that this forum is almost 100% helpful, without the lack of civility which is present in most gambling forums.
Of course when there is a losing weekend or two, the less-than-savories can come out of the woodwork.
Edmonton/Montreal game is up, finally. Evidently MIster Linemaker isn't believing that Johnny Football is gonna save the Als...I watched Shilz, last week's quarterback play against the Stamps, and thought he showed courage, staying in the pocket and throwin' it down the field. Evidently Vernon Adams will start against the Eskimos. He can make plays with his legs, not sure about making plays in the passing game.
The Alouettes will try to win this game 13-10 and it's virtually impossible to hold Riley down. I will let this line stew in my brain for awhile,...I'll be taking the Alouettes or nothing,....for whatever reason home non-divisional dogs do very well on Thursday nights. Sometimes/often in this business things happen without rationale explanation....those people that say "I can't get my head around why", will become losers....because there's no rhyme/reason to human occurrences. Why not accept that? Thursdays? home dogs? that doesn't make sense....yes, right, it doesn't, roll with it.
KOC contest public betting percentages
Montreal 35%
Toronto 47%
Hamilton 56%
Saskatchewan 39%
We have the magic elixir or the holy grail for some bettors....the reverse line movement phenomena. Toronto after first moving up to 11 has moved back down to 10' despite the majority of bets being on the Peggers. The Riders have only 39% of the bets, but the line is moving down. Some feel that this is a sign that smart money are on the minority play.
The short answer is that SOMETIMES that is true. The books will move a line in response to BIG money or respected money.
Neither win all the time or even >50% of the time, especially in the CFL and the NFL. NCAA football is another story, early money is very often VERY smart money and people bet into numbers more than the CFL.
Careful guys, i hear it's a rough place living in the penalty box, there's no mommy to tuck you in..
Yes, I am missing a point and a half in the Montreal game, but you fail to point out that I am getting a point of value in the Toronto game and two points in the Hamilton game.
Choosing when to get in on a bet is an inexact science, at the end of week if you've extracted more value than you've given away, then you can be happy with that.
Perhaps you two would care to elaborate on who you are taking and the reasons why....I'd be interested in hearing your rationale and perhaps some other posters would also.
Well...I'm taking the OVER. 48.5 isn't much and if Reilly can get it going in the 1st half. It will be garbage time in the 2nd half. Meaning.....you will see Johnny and I think the Als will put up at least 17 points. I see the Esks putting up 35. Weather no factor tonight other than humidity. Reilly is due for a big game.
Established in 1995,
...one last, "insert", regarding this game:
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