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🍀🍀🍀 NCAA MEN's: 201 - 103 ... +75.96u

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Legend
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Posted: #1076

After 5 - 2 Monday . . .

 

YTD:   107 - 56   an_2drinks  [42 - 15  *Best Bets]

 
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Posted: #1077

an_worship  an_worship  an_worship

 
Legend
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Posted: #1078

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

After 5 - 2 Monday . . .  

YTD:   107 - 56     [42 - 15  *Best Bets]

Tuesday, overnights:

Badgers -170 *BB

Ohio -3 -157 *BB alt-line

 
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Posted: #1079

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: After 5 - 2 Monday . . .   YTD:   107 - 56     [42 - 15  *Best Bets] Tuesday, overnights: Badgers -170 *BB Ohio -3 -157 *BB alt-line
Colo st RAMS -3 -136 *BB alt-line

 
Legend
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Posted: #1080

Tuesday...

LEANING Wyoming ats if I can get 4 pts lower line during live play

 
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Posted: #1081

BOL

Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1082

Great night yesterday.   Started rough and then flipped our way.  I took your comment since I liked them too and played Baylor live plus 12.5

 
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Posted: #1083

@fubah2

 Good luck on tonights plays fubah peace_5 clover

 
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Posted: #1084

clover

 
Legend
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Posted: #1085

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

Sooooooo question,

you seem to have a certain number in your head to wait for in game with certain picks.

How do you pick and choose your spots with all these games on the slate?

BOL going forward, as you seem to know what you're doing.

@tvigilante2020

cool For my style of handicapping, it all starts with my master list of ratings (not sequential rankings!)

I use these to assess to compare the opponents (opps) I keep a scale which has been very good to me over the years that suggests a tiny range of pts a team should be favored (pertinent to the venue) against the rating of their opponent.

 

For fictitious example:

Level 7 team playing on the road AT Level 6 team.

All else being equal - which it usually IS NOT - but for discussion sake let's say this one is,  then in my method, due to homecourt advantage and facing against a team rated just one level lower but still close, then **ALL** home teams in the same comparison (7 vs 6) should be listed at between -4.0 to -6.0 pts. Of course I want/need a line cheaper than that if I like the home team!

However, many times the actual odds are outside this range and THOSE are the games I investigate.  Often the Vegas odds are due to a player out or questionable.  Other times it is due to public misperception.  And others due to a revenge match....etc, etc, etc....

an_police  My capping focuses primarily on which team will win SU, NOT which team will cover (typically a 50-50 coin-flip!)

So, if I like a team for a very strong chance to win SU, but the juice is too high to risk (like -500 or such) then I look at the pt spread - hoping to make MY LIVE BET on odds which are significantly distant from the over-priced Vegas odds that are above my range for these opponents.  Thus, a Vegas line like -7.5 when I have it rated for -4 to -6 only, THAT is when I favor the team to win SU (LEAN) but the ml and spread are too high pre-game.....I need to view the early goings to see a significant DROP in the odds (ml or spread) *BELOW* the 4 to 6 range (push territory)

coolSuch a game would be "LEAN but hoping to get -3 or better during LIVE play"

 
Legend
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Posted: #1086

On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...

 
Legend
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Posted: #1087

GL clover on your plays mah man @fubah2 peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
Legend
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Posted: #1088

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020: Sooooooo question, you seem to have a certain number in your head to wait for in game with certain picks. How do you pick and choose your spots with all these games on the slate? BOL going forward, as you seem to know what you're doing. @tvigilante2020 For my style of handicapping, it all starts with my master list of ratings (not sequential rankings!) I use these to assess to compare the opponents (opps) I keep a scale which has been very good to me over the years that suggests a tiny range of pts a team should be favored (pertinent to the venue) against the rating of their opponent.   For fictitious example: Level 7 team playing on the road AT Level 6 team. All else being equal - which it usually IS NOT - but for discussion sake let's say this one is,  then in my method, due to homecourt advantage and facing against a team rated just one level lower but still close, then **ALL** home teams in the same comparison (7 vs 6) should be listed at between -4.0 to -6.0 pts. Of course I want/need a line cheaper than that if I like the home team! However, many times the actual odds are outside this range and THOSE are the games I investigate.  Often the Vegas odds are due to a player out or questionable.  Other times it is due to public misperception.  And others due to a revenge match....etc, etc, etc....   My capping focuses primarily on which team will win SU, NOT which team will cover (typically a 50-50 coin-flip!) So, if I like a team for a very strong chance to win SU, but the juice is too high to risk (like -500 or such) then I look at the pt spread - hoping to make MY LIVE BET on odds which are significantly distant from the over-priced Vegas odds that are above my range for these opponents.  Thus, a Vegas line like -7.5 when I have it rated for -4 to -6 only, THAT is when I favor the team to win SU (LEAN) but the ml and spread are too high pre-game.....I need to view the early goings to see a significant DROP in the odds (ml or spread) *BELOW* the 4 to 6 range (push territory) Such a game would be "LEAN but hoping to get -3 or better during LIVE play"

Hope that answers your Q peace_5

 
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Posted: #1089

@fubah2

Thank you for the time in explaining....appreciate it. You seem to have found an angle that works for you.

BOL the rest of the way!

 
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Posted: #1090

@fubah2

I guess you can't give us a peak on how you create your master list of ratings?

 
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Posted: #1091

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

@fubah2 I guess you can't give us a peak on how you create your master list of ratings?

 

cool Correctamundos, mon frere! peace_5

I consider that decades long effort *CLASSIFIED* TOP SECRET.

an_cheers However I do share the end results of my capping (utilizing my formulas) with my posted bets.

 

2024:

NFL final:   123 - 49     71.5%      [39 - 13 *Best Bets  75.0%]
CFB final:   215 - 99     68.5%     [95 - 31 *Best Bets  75.4%]
MLB final:  186 - 117    61.4%      [71 - 44 *BestBets   61.8%]
CBk final:  201 - 103    66.1%      [76 - 29 *Best Bets  72.3%]
WNCAA:     57 - 21      73.0%      [31 - 9  *Best Bets  77.5%]

 
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Posted: #1092

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...

 

HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win  then a loss....

They lost last game. They ARE the better team on the season for sure!

LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle

 
Legend
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Posted: #1093

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...   HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win  then a loss.... They lost last game. They ARE the better team on the season for sure! LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle

 

...or....they might PHUCK-it_all-UP and lose 2 consecutive to weaker opponents -  just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... sad

 
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Posted: #1094

@fubah2

"just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... sad"

_________________

UConn has been in flux all season with their top scorer out and everyone smelling blood in the water. They have around a month to right the ship and lock it in, so I guess we'll see.

 
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Posted: #1095

Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

@fubah2 "just 4 games removed from getting back their top scorer... " _________________ UConn has been in flux all season with their top scorer out and everyone smelling blood in the water. They have around a month to right the ship and lock it in, so I guess we'll see.

Yes, good point.  Losing McNealy for all of January was a problem.  Oddly they are just 1 - 2 since his return and are threatening to LOSE tonight to another weaker opp...

 
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Posted: #1096

Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

@fubah2  Good luck on tonights plays fubah peace_5 clover

Thanks, Jim! peace_5   Are you sitting out tonight's games? Can't find your thread...

 
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Posted: #1097

Wyoming?reallyhappy

 
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Posted: #1098

Wyoming?reallyhappy

 
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Posted: #1099

@fubah2

 Well played on UConn an_clap

“I’m Winston Wolfe, I solve problems”
 
 
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Posted: #1100

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: On that note, I am LEANING Yukon SledDogs today...  

 

HT and Yukon SledDogs trail 26 -34 in a big REVENGE match....Play is basically dead even except Villan has hit a few more 3s....that's it!....UCONN is seemingly alternating a win with a loss then a win  then a loss....They lost last game.

They ARE the better team on the season for sure!

LIVE BET: Uconn -105 *BB (game) pinnacle

My Yukon SledDogs! an_happydude

 

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