Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
Wow this is a crazy thread, do you mainly look for hoping on women’s favorites in trouble and believe live ML’s pay more than minus points even up? Are you looking at live metrics like poor shooting shooting %? Are the live women’s algorithm lines softer? And do you do a little drinking as u go?
You raise some interesting points.
I believe only about 6% of my 182+ posted bets have been during LIVE ACTION. In most cases it is where I had capped a pick that was strong to win SU but the line was too risky, either ATS or ML, but esp ML. So I keep that side circled and monitor the game - particularly the opening few mins when either team may go on a run to open up a lead. I find that road dogs often go on an early run to a lead almost as often as home favs do.... at which point I can jump on that fav at a much cheaper price than pregame. Or if not then, usually at some point later in the game. The fav's price drops considerably during the game when the score is tied or a single possession behind the dog, and yet that is routinely overcome by a strong HOME FAV in the final Q of a game - or in many cases - the final 3 minutes!
Yes, what I am monitoring via ESPN game page in the boxscores are
- the FOULS situations!!! (which star is in danger and likely to sit or foul out!),
- who is dominating the glass (if either)
- shooting% and shooting volumes,
- bonus in effect yet?!? and which teams are deadly or weak at the charity stripe,
- and if the teams are solid at hitting from the arc (during that game)
There are a lot of moving parts and it takes practice, kinda like a golf swing, but now I can scan a boxscore quickly and know if a team is in a favorable position (or not!) to pull ahead and get the win, or if it is in jeopardy of a coin-flipper. More often than not I just pass and lose nothing doing so. But occasionally a great opportunity jumps out. Last year I made $4k on a single game which went into OT. I had passed on the game as a toss up earlier. But entering OT the HOME FAVS had just fouled out their top scorer in the final minute of regulation , with their other two TOP scoring starters with 4 fouls each - and they had a weakass bench!! Surprisingly, the line on the home favs didn't budge!! I jumped all over that one on the dogs - those 2 "fav" starters fouled out as expected - and I won easily!
As for ATS or ML, I prefer ML as I cap the games toward a probability to win or lose SU. I will take dogs on the spread but not ML.
In women's games the ML value is actually worse than mens in most cases. But for some reason there are far fewer major upsets in women's games than mens. Not sure why. Womens teams who are favored by 2 possessions and up seem to win at a higher rate than mens although covering a spread is iffy. So I prefer the ML on favs, particularly home favs, in both men and womens.
Ha, no I don't drink at all when capping/betting.....leads to dumbass decisions. I do however eat small portions almost every hour along with brief blood-pumping exercise to keep my energy levels elevated and clear-headed. Works for me...
BoL to you with your bets today and going forward