Posted:
#1
November
12-6 +5.5 units
December 13-5 +10.1 units; 2-unit plays: 2-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
January 0-1 -1 unit
Hey guys, finally back to a normal routine so I hope to be posting alert plays more frequently now that we are back in SA. Stupidly switched my alert play from over in the Col St/Hampton game to laying the points with Col St. Col St lost straight up but the over hit by almost 30, I know better than switching my plays last second but that 1-unit lesson should hopefully serve a solid reminder for the rest of the year. Not sure if this is (or will be) a popular play but I'm on Marshall +11.5 tonight for 2-units (actually a little more than 2, but we will say 2 for record keeping purposes). Here is why I like the play:
First, these teams are about as evenly matched as I've seen for an 11 to 12-pt spread in quite in while. Both teams:
Have terrible strength of schedules (262 CFU 274 Mars)
Have excellent effective FG% defense (40% CFU 44% Mars)
Have excellent effective FG% offense (54% CFU 50% Mars)
Have excellent assist/turnover defensive ratios (.72 CFU .81 Mars)
Both get to the line a ton (27 attempts CFU 29 attempts Mars)
Marshall has an advantage on the offensive glass while CFU has an advantage creating turnovers via the steal and NOT putting people on the line.
CFU has only played three home games against teams in Kenpom's top 250!!!!!!! They are 1-2 ATS, here are the numbers:
South Florida: won by 6 didn't cover
Furman won by 18 and covers (a game that Furman got 16 offensive rebounds but shot 20-60 from the floor)
Princeton: won by 6 didn't cover (Princeton had a big halftime lead and CFU roared back for the win late)
Marshall has played 4 road games against teams in Kenpom's top 150. They are 3-1 ATS including two straight up wins as dogs, here are the numbers:
@Louisville lost by 14, covered the 17.5 line
@Ohio won by 8 as 4.5 dogs
@James Madison lost by 7 as 4.5 dogs (it should be noted that Marshall had beaten JMU at home and this was their second meeting so would apply more to the next time Marshall and CFU plays)
@St Bonaventure won by 9 as 2.5 dogs
There are other numbers we can look at too, but this is a situational play as well. CFU's current head coach was Marshall's head coach last year. This is a very emotional game for both sides (especially Marshall). I always look for this angle (i.e. coaches coming back to face their old school, their alma mater, or against fellow coaches they coached with and now have to coach against), more often than not, these games are closer than expected and the coaches go out of their way to not embarrass their former school/coaches. In this case in particular, you can expect to get a MAXIMUM effort by the players that the former coach left behind (i.e. Marshall's returning players). Also, its normally problematic when a coach knows A TON about the team he is facing as its tough to break with routine and go even more in-depth in the scouting report etc. paralysis by analysis is the normal term you hear in this case.
The normal rule of thumb is that if you think an underdog can win the game straight up you should bet them. Even more so, if you think a double-digit underdog can win straight up, you really should bet the game. I think Marshall can win this game and more importantly, I think a TON of things have to go UCF's way to cover this line. Is it possible? Sure, the emotion of the game COULD get to Jones' old players and they could play below expectations - but I've seen this before and I can tell you that the old players have something to prove and they want to show Jones what he is missing for leaving (after he recruited them and made promises etc.). These are two evenly matched teams who haven't proven very much against tough competition and its also the conference opener and both teams are expecting a close, tough game. As I've mentioned before, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts and the game usually plays out like the players and coaches expect to.
Marshall +11.5 for 2-units on Matchbook
December 13-5 +10.1 units; 2-unit plays: 2-0; 3-unit plays: 1-0
January 0-1 -1 unit
Hey guys, finally back to a normal routine so I hope to be posting alert plays more frequently now that we are back in SA. Stupidly switched my alert play from over in the Col St/Hampton game to laying the points with Col St. Col St lost straight up but the over hit by almost 30, I know better than switching my plays last second but that 1-unit lesson should hopefully serve a solid reminder for the rest of the year. Not sure if this is (or will be) a popular play but I'm on Marshall +11.5 tonight for 2-units (actually a little more than 2, but we will say 2 for record keeping purposes). Here is why I like the play:
First, these teams are about as evenly matched as I've seen for an 11 to 12-pt spread in quite in while. Both teams:
Have terrible strength of schedules (262 CFU 274 Mars)
Have excellent effective FG% defense (40% CFU 44% Mars)
Have excellent effective FG% offense (54% CFU 50% Mars)
Have excellent assist/turnover defensive ratios (.72 CFU .81 Mars)
Both get to the line a ton (27 attempts CFU 29 attempts Mars)
Marshall has an advantage on the offensive glass while CFU has an advantage creating turnovers via the steal and NOT putting people on the line.
CFU has only played three home games against teams in Kenpom's top 250!!!!!!! They are 1-2 ATS, here are the numbers:
South Florida: won by 6 didn't cover
Furman won by 18 and covers (a game that Furman got 16 offensive rebounds but shot 20-60 from the floor)
Princeton: won by 6 didn't cover (Princeton had a big halftime lead and CFU roared back for the win late)
Marshall has played 4 road games against teams in Kenpom's top 150. They are 3-1 ATS including two straight up wins as dogs, here are the numbers:
@Louisville lost by 14, covered the 17.5 line
@Ohio won by 8 as 4.5 dogs
@James Madison lost by 7 as 4.5 dogs (it should be noted that Marshall had beaten JMU at home and this was their second meeting so would apply more to the next time Marshall and CFU plays)
@St Bonaventure won by 9 as 2.5 dogs
There are other numbers we can look at too, but this is a situational play as well. CFU's current head coach was Marshall's head coach last year. This is a very emotional game for both sides (especially Marshall). I always look for this angle (i.e. coaches coming back to face their old school, their alma mater, or against fellow coaches they coached with and now have to coach against), more often than not, these games are closer than expected and the coaches go out of their way to not embarrass their former school/coaches. In this case in particular, you can expect to get a MAXIMUM effort by the players that the former coach left behind (i.e. Marshall's returning players). Also, its normally problematic when a coach knows A TON about the team he is facing as its tough to break with routine and go even more in-depth in the scouting report etc. paralysis by analysis is the normal term you hear in this case.
The normal rule of thumb is that if you think an underdog can win the game straight up you should bet them. Even more so, if you think a double-digit underdog can win straight up, you really should bet the game. I think Marshall can win this game and more importantly, I think a TON of things have to go UCF's way to cover this line. Is it possible? Sure, the emotion of the game COULD get to Jones' old players and they could play below expectations - but I've seen this before and I can tell you that the old players have something to prove and they want to show Jones what he is missing for leaving (after he recruited them and made promises etc.). These are two evenly matched teams who haven't proven very much against tough competition and its also the conference opener and both teams are expecting a close, tough game. As I've mentioned before, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts and the game usually plays out like the players and coaches expect to.
Marshall +11.5 for 2-units on Matchbook
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