Posted:
#1
Hey Guys,
Hope everyone is doing is well and ready for this college basketball season! For those of you who don't know me, here is my philosophy in a nutshell:
1. I rarely bet over 1-unit on any particular play
2. My 1-unit is a higher percentage of my bankroll than most people on this site. I do this for many reasons. First, it keeps me from betting games just to bet games. Next, any "loss" is painful and causes me to rethink my methods, angles, etc. this keeps me on my toes. Lastly, it helps keep me selective in the betting process as I will most often times have a "lean" on a side or total, but it takes many factors to push it over the edge into a "play" for me.
3. I rarely bet teams from the "big" conferences (more on this later)
4. I do not bet 1h or 2h's (not that there isn't value there - its just not the way I handicap) and I rarely chase (hold me to that:)
5. I rarely watch a game a bet on (I study it intensely before and then either track it online and/or go back and study/read the recaps, quotes, stats etc. afterward but its nearly impossible to watch a game objectively when you are rooting for your bet to win). I would rather study a game, have a lean on that game but not bet it, and then watch the game to see if my angles, trends, stats, etc. were correct about that game or not. Also, the information gleaned from watching a game objectively can be put right to use in those team's next game if you know what your doing.
6. When the season gets going, it takes me over an hour to research any one particular game, so if I post it as a play, I believe in it and I have a host of friends and family members that will be betting on it too because I am betting on it. I also have many friends on this site that will "tail" a play if I post it and I don't take this responsibility lightly. I can't guarantee that any of my plays will win, but what I can just guarantee that I have studied it deeper than 99% of humans out there and its my money on the line with you as well.
At this point I know that there will be some "newbies" in the forum that will want to see posted records and such. I'm documented up over 50 units the last two college basketball seasons and that means absolutely nothing to me. I believe your only as good as your last bet and just because I have had winning seasons in the past, it certainly doesn't guarantee that I will win this season. In fact, it is recent success is often an indicator that someone will regress back to the mean with their plays (especially if they aren't constantly pushing themselves and changing with the times).
With that being said, I changing my methods this season. If I go into detail of all the reasons why I'm changing my processes this year, this post would be 50,000 words long. I'll spare you the pain of reading that and just say that I'm planning on taking advantage of all the mediums out there to acquire information.
I will be intensely studying two smaller conferences this season and the majority of my plays will come from there and that is what will constitute an "alert play" and a giant write-up from me (ok ok, its the MAAC and Southern if you must know).
I also have modified my "angles analysis" (the term "system" will never be used in my threads as its too much of a hot button topic and lends itself to pointless arguments etc.) to run the entire season long and have modified a few other "trends" so that I will be making plays based on this "angles analysis" (still needs to think of a better term than this, maybe we will just call it "AA" if that doesn't offend anyone) all season long. These plays will not have a write-up and you can take them or leave them at your discretion.
Lastly, my motto over the past three years on this site is that we "are all in this together" and I mean it. I'm ALWAYS willing to hear the other side of one of my plays (in fact, I encourage it and it makes us all better for it) and look forward to improving my methods based on your feedback. My time is super limited, especially this year, so I will try to post my plays as early as possible. Please don't be offended if you ask me something in a thread and I don't answer, it just means I was unable to log back in. I have many friends on this site that will be able to answer questions for you and most of them know exactly what I would say as I am nothing if not consistent in my ways.
Good luck this season and we are all in this together!
Hope everyone is doing is well and ready for this college basketball season! For those of you who don't know me, here is my philosophy in a nutshell:
1. I rarely bet over 1-unit on any particular play
2. My 1-unit is a higher percentage of my bankroll than most people on this site. I do this for many reasons. First, it keeps me from betting games just to bet games. Next, any "loss" is painful and causes me to rethink my methods, angles, etc. this keeps me on my toes. Lastly, it helps keep me selective in the betting process as I will most often times have a "lean" on a side or total, but it takes many factors to push it over the edge into a "play" for me.
3. I rarely bet teams from the "big" conferences (more on this later)
4. I do not bet 1h or 2h's (not that there isn't value there - its just not the way I handicap) and I rarely chase (hold me to that:)
5. I rarely watch a game a bet on (I study it intensely before and then either track it online and/or go back and study/read the recaps, quotes, stats etc. afterward but its nearly impossible to watch a game objectively when you are rooting for your bet to win). I would rather study a game, have a lean on that game but not bet it, and then watch the game to see if my angles, trends, stats, etc. were correct about that game or not. Also, the information gleaned from watching a game objectively can be put right to use in those team's next game if you know what your doing.
6. When the season gets going, it takes me over an hour to research any one particular game, so if I post it as a play, I believe in it and I have a host of friends and family members that will be betting on it too because I am betting on it. I also have many friends on this site that will "tail" a play if I post it and I don't take this responsibility lightly. I can't guarantee that any of my plays will win, but what I can just guarantee that I have studied it deeper than 99% of humans out there and its my money on the line with you as well.
At this point I know that there will be some "newbies" in the forum that will want to see posted records and such. I'm documented up over 50 units the last two college basketball seasons and that means absolutely nothing to me. I believe your only as good as your last bet and just because I have had winning seasons in the past, it certainly doesn't guarantee that I will win this season. In fact, it is recent success is often an indicator that someone will regress back to the mean with their plays (especially if they aren't constantly pushing themselves and changing with the times).
With that being said, I changing my methods this season. If I go into detail of all the reasons why I'm changing my processes this year, this post would be 50,000 words long. I'll spare you the pain of reading that and just say that I'm planning on taking advantage of all the mediums out there to acquire information.
I will be intensely studying two smaller conferences this season and the majority of my plays will come from there and that is what will constitute an "alert play" and a giant write-up from me (ok ok, its the MAAC and Southern if you must know).
I also have modified my "angles analysis" (the term "system" will never be used in my threads as its too much of a hot button topic and lends itself to pointless arguments etc.) to run the entire season long and have modified a few other "trends" so that I will be making plays based on this "angles analysis" (still needs to think of a better term than this, maybe we will just call it "AA" if that doesn't offend anyone) all season long. These plays will not have a write-up and you can take them or leave them at your discretion.
Lastly, my motto over the past three years on this site is that we "are all in this together" and I mean it. I'm ALWAYS willing to hear the other side of one of my plays (in fact, I encourage it and it makes us all better for it) and look forward to improving my methods based on your feedback. My time is super limited, especially this year, so I will try to post my plays as early as possible. Please don't be offended if you ask me something in a thread and I don't answer, it just means I was unable to log back in. I have many friends on this site that will be able to answer questions for you and most of them know exactly what I would say as I am nothing if not consistent in my ways.
Good luck this season and we are all in this together!
0
Hot Forum Topics
