2012 Atlantic 10 Tournament

I think Tem or StLouis.  Just MHO

Lot of value on Temple +195. They've owned the Boardwalk since Dunphy arrived. Tough draw though with a likely UMASS-SJU/Bonnies-Saint Louis road to the title. Still, I don't understand why Saint Louis is considered the favorite given Temple's dominance in AC and the fact that it will be a de facto home game for the Owls.

Good A-10 parley for today would be Charlotte +9.5
                                                      Richmond +5.5
                                                      Dayton -9

I will weigh in...

but first updated lines...which spread wise are nearly Identical to my predictions...with La Salle being .5 higher than I had them for...but check my total predictions...Mass , St. Joes and Dayton are all within a couple points, but the La Salle total has me puzzled a bit. I was probably a little over happy with my total, but I am surprised over 139 or so was not the #...La Salle hasn't quite put up the numbers they were earlier, but in a game that saw the Spiders shoot poorly on Feb 8th, the game still hit 154, with a total of 142 or so. Im puzzled...maybe over is a play, but Richmond seems to fall into weird games...one minute the game is 57-55 then the next is 80-70....

my predictions:

Massachusetts -5 153
St. Josephs -9 134
La Salle -6.5 143.5
Dayton -9 134

Updated lines:

Mass vs Duquesne +5 150
St. Joe's vs. Charlotte +9 137
La Salle vs. Richmond +6 136
Dayton vs. George Wash +9 132.5

As far as St. Louis being the favorite,...I am surprised myself. The draw is relatively even if you ask me...if the favorites win out (obviously never the case) but you have Temple vs. Mass, then Bona, then championship...with St. Joes probably a favorite against Bona come game 2 if they play. STL has la salle if all holds, then X, then Temple...it is pretty even to me.

My guess is that people just love the way STL is playing...I have no other real reason for it...

so what teams are you going with tonite??

Also, to comment on Dayton, I believe they shot 62.5% from 3. No team can expect that by any stretch. If they cool off to a normal percentage, we have a much closer game. GW is going to want to play a slow game IMO, and should, as they dont match up as well running the floor.

9 points is a lot...

I do believe that most dogs are the play today.

GW is hard to figure out, and have played up and down all year in this league. They have won @ Richmond, only lost by 7 @ Temple, but also lost @ Fordham and at home to St. Joes by 9...9 is a lot. it really is...also, not many tickets have been sold for the Dayton game. They dont expect a big crowd due to higher priced costs. People are potentially calling for 1/2 the usual sell out...

I actually do not like Charlotte a whole lot. Something just tells me St. Joes runs away with this one. I dont have any stats or facts to back it up, but just how I feel. I dont see Charlotte with any chance of winning tonight, and outside of a backdoor, Id be on the Hawks.

Duquense has a legit shot IMO...they give UMass some matchup problems style wise. McConnell needs a big game...

I also like Richmonds chances...this Kendall Anthony kid has a lot going for him and I dont like the way La Salle has played the last half of the A-10...6 pts is a fair share...

I haven't been betting the A-10 outside of 1 play I stepped out on a good month ago fairly large and didn't hit.

will I bet tonight? Maybe....

Lines seem to be dropping. Mass is down to -4.5 and La Salle is down to -5...

I do have a 4 teamer for fun...well i get a free one a week from my local for certain reasons, a measily 10 bucks, but at my +100 money plays, it does pay 15/1

here is what I have for a PARLAY

Richmond +5
Dukes +4.5
St. Joes -9
GW +9

not the best lines on Richmond and Dukes, but it was what it was when I played it...

Other day very interesting as all 4 favorites ::gulp:: covered. I had that gut on St. Joes, but easily the 9ers could have covered that game down 5 late. Duquense was there the whole way and faltered in similar fashion. GW also had a chance, but Dayton staved off a minor rally and pulled away again, and Richmond was in and out, and missed...

Round 2 today...

4 games on the slate, with Temple and Mass kicking us off...followed by Bona/Joes, then at 630 we have La Salle/STL and a great night cap in a big bubble game with X/Dayton.

Really wish I could be there today, but can't.

Games I like...I would be leaning Mass today getting 7.5. This is a team that could give Temple some fits with their run style, as they did in Temple recently, losing by only 2 in OT. Chaz is a lot for Juan to handle assuming he plays him some, or if they choose any zone...Mass will push this ball, not that that statement is rocket science or some crystal ball thought, pretty obvious. Pts is worth it IMO.

I would also take St. Joes...I think they have a shot at taking this whole thing. It is a pretty good matchup for St. Joes. No one handles Nicholson, but Aiken is a great defender and will give AN a good matchup. Bona's guards are hit or miss, and this is where St. Joes should exploit them.

Would also lean over in that game if had to pick, same goes for Temple one...

back later with some thoughts on the night caps

     I've already bet the early ones Crus, and as always, don't like being against your gut, especially A-10 tourney time, or for that matter, any A-10 game.  Sorry to hear you couldn't make the show this year, seemed like an annual pilgrimage for you every year. Back to the games.

     In agreement on the outcome of the St Joes/St Bonnie game, no way that the Bonnies get the 20 or so off. rebs. they got in their home OT win, reg season.  Point of emphasis in Martelli's preparation for the game.  20-4 and St Joe's still lead the game by 6 late to only let them tie it for OT.  Also lead OT by the same number, late, but again, off rebs. and put backs iced the game for the Bonnies. They'll be fine this time around, just wait and see the difference in terms of off. rebounding. Nickolson will get his, but not enough to make the difference.

    The game that concerns me, and it didn't until I read your earlier post, is Temple/UMass.  My original take on the game was the way that Dunfey switches up, offensively and defensively, and the advantage I see that making in the pace of the game. He's the master of the half court, not exactly the strong suit of the Minutemen.  Away from home, UMass is a different team, and I just see them, especially, soph, Chaz Williams, not being ready for a game on this stage this late in the season.  Sure the 7 or so points is a lot, but the oddmakers must understand the coaching advantage to start it out that high. I never want to see anyone lose a bet, especially some one who knows as much as you do, A-10, but sorry for you if you make that UMass play, I think in the end you'll regret it.

     Here's to a great A-10 tourney, a great NCAA tourney,  and hopefully a better season ahead next year for our Rhody Rams.   BOL and keep the faith.

222...nice to hear from you. Dunphy is a master but I believe there is something to be said for teams that have already started the tourney vs. Teams that are waiting. Mass is really an enigma. At times they look strong and others flat. Temple has owned AC but mass can hang with temple. 3 games in 3 days...I don't see Temple looking to run which keeps me in the game late...I just feel the line is correct at 6...put it this way. A stl temple game would roughly be a pk. Law salle is getting 6 which is spot on....id even take mass over them head to head so I see a little value in the Minutemen....with that said I wouldn't be shocked if they got slaughtered. Just depends on what mass team shows up

GL today

Head to head meaning la salle and Mass...

Hey CrusCrnshw-

 

I was thinking of taking the OVER 134 in the St Joe's game as the first game hit pretty high (OT helped) but St Joe's gives up about 70 on the road and Bonnies gives up about 63. I dont see why each team couldn't put up about 68-low 70's this afternoon. If you have any insight I would love to hear it and could really use the win! BOL as always!

Cal

Hey Cal...as stated above I would lean over in this game. However I don't view it extremely strong. I hate to just sit and base things on 1 meeting although I do hold weight to it. I think in tournaments when games are close teams will foul in situations where during the reg season that they normally wouldn't. You know down 7 25 Sec left type thing.

This will probably be a half court game but the bonnies have some fresh legs...

Also looking at stl first half under...

Crus nice to see you back, missed you this season. My UMASS team had the good team show up today. Let's see who shows up tomorrow. Kellogg getting Chaz to transfer was big. good luck

Looking at tomorrow's UMASS/St Bonn game looks like a pick game with the total at 147. I like the over at 149 or below good luck with your wagers. 

CRUS,any opinions tonight my friend ? been following your plays for several years.

hey guys...Good for UMass...glad they won

that X game was great. If you bet that game you sweated it all out, total and spread...

sometimes it is fun not to really but much anymore...but my opinions still are there...

Todays games are interesting...X is probably in now with their win last night...but I would like to say take the points with Mass...they seem to have that "it" factor right now...esp if you can get +3...

and yes Id lean over at 147 too

I dont even see a line in the STL game yet

thanks guys

Stl -6 over the Xavier is the line I am seeing...

I see St Louis -6, for a game that should be in the 60's the points look awlful tempting.

Actually gun to my head and I had to take each side and total id lean STL, Mass, and both overs...at least the lines I see...STL is -5.5 and 128, and Mass is 3 and 145

last A-10 game before the dance.

Was surprised a bit X won that game, just as I recently jumped off the wagon, they are starting to step up

Im back on...

Id lean X today and the over if had to pick...

Thought id share that I have st. Louis beating m state in both of my brackets and 7 is rather high in a game that might make the low 60's...if played at billies pace....id take the ML as well.

I think X wins but not sure about covering

Mass yesterday was a gift...missed ML parlay of 23/1 with VCU losing...

Temple had a tough one...and bonanza played well...

Stl ml and +7....no homer here