[Quote: Originally Posted by KineProfessor] I won't be making a new thread about this years system but for the few "vets" in the thread (for instance if you know what kenpom is you might be a "vet"), here is what is new this year.
I've been using the system all season to narrow down games to consider betting on with awesome results (ask Kapono how I'm running if you like).
The actual system doesn't technically start till next Saturday. The system guidelines change year to year based on the overall quality of mid-major teams (and bottom level teams from big conferences). This influences what kenpom ranking the system should start from (ie if you think mid-major basketball quality is down this year, then the kenpom ranking should go down and you might consider the cutoff around 160 for example). Obviously, if you think mid-major teams (and bottom tier big conference teams) are stronger this year then you would shift the kenpom ranking cutoff up, like around 200. If your familiar with the teams from kenpom rankings 150ish-200, ask yourself which of these teams do I want to be AGAINST when they are big home favorites against "inferior" opponents.
Also, take a look at the teams around kenpom rankings 250-300 and ask yourself how big a difference do you believe exist between those teams and the teams around 150-250 in the rankings. What this will tell you is what the "spread" cutoff should be. The bigger the difference you believe exists between those teams, the bigger the line should be to constitute a play (let's say +9 or higher for this example). The closer you think these teams are the smaller the line can be to make it a play.
Take the Wilmington vs Hofstra game for example. Clearly, Wilmington sucks and at kenpom ranking 275, the will always be a candidate for the system (both play on and against depending on the opponent). But how big of a gap do you believe exists between those two teams? The line opened at 5dimes at 6, which makes that spread too small to technically qualify for a system play, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still look at the game and consider it for a play. In my opinion if you consistently lay the points in the above situations you will eventually go broke betting college hoops (that's not to say that Wilmington won't cover in this particular example but over the course of an entire system the EV doesn't justify the play).
The point of this post is twofold: 1. Just use the system as a guideline for selecting game to study and consider betting (always try to back the points) and 2. Based on YOUR observations of college hoops this system, YOU can manipulate the guidelines (ie what kenpom ranking to start it at and what point spread to start it at) at which to start the system. I might say kenpom 200 and point spreads starting at 9 or higher and you might say kenpom 160 and pt spreads of 6.5 or higher. We won't know who is "right" until after this season ends. This paragraph would actually make for "useful" discussion in this thread (I know that's a novel concept).
*if this post doesn't make sense to you, go back and read the first posts of this thread or just face the grim reality that this system is not /Quote]hey kine, thanks for the post...pre system...16-9 ,
i was posting subtly but someoen else decided to run with it so im just capping as i see them. post is spot on for me, i found that i will grade a play that fits system with a personal rating and i will play more or less depending on what i feel is strength and what you said above is what i kind of take into acct. been doing well also.
i just figure if they know the system parameters they can play them without me having to post. nice to see you again..hope all is well...ryno
but to me it was a play.
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