Posted:
#1451
great start boys.....
TROY +10 winner
MONTANA ST +8.5 winner
EDWARDSVILLE +11.5 winner
hope you all made money. sweeeeep! cya tomorrow ryno
2012 Kempom System
Posted:
#1471
It does not have to be a double digit spread to make it a play. Montana st. was +8.5. The home team just needs to be favored by 6.5. That being said, this is a marginal game. Yale is #147. If you go by the original parameters of the system then this is definitely no-play. If you go by the new parameters outlined in post #1247, then it is marginal. You will have to decide for yourself. I may make it a no-play for myself. I have not decided yet.
Posted:
#1472
Quote Originally Posted by thomthekid:
It does not have to be a double digit spread to make it a play. Montana st. was +8.5. The home team just needs to be favored by 6.5. That being said, this is a marginal game. Yale is #147. If you go by the original parameters of the system then this is definitely no-play. If you go by the new parameters outlined in post #1247, then it is marginal. You will have to decide for yourself. I may make it a no-play for myself. I have not decided yet.
It does not have to be a double digit spread to make it a play. Montana st. was +8.5. The home team just needs to be favored by 6.5. That being said, this is a marginal game. Yale is #147. If you go by the original parameters of the system then this is definitely no-play. If you go by the new parameters outlined in post #1247, then it is marginal. You will have to decide for yourself. I may make it a no-play for myself. I have not decided yet.
I mean post #1241.
Posted:
#1475
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Ryno: I contacted you with some inside information for your eyes only
System Update (for those that are interested):
1. System should start Feb 13th (some would argue Feb 20th and they would have a point) and run to the end of the season and not include conference tourney games (although you could certainly use some of the principles to narrow down cards and look more closely at games).
2. System should use a sliding scale and begin around Kenpom 140, understand that for teams ranked by Kenpom between #140-200, lines should be DD before it qualifies as a play. For teams #200-Southern Utah, lines of 7.5 or higher to constitute a play (of course you are still welcome to use your own brain and consider games that just miss the criteria as games that you should possibly look at more closely and consider playing).
3. Games played on Thursday (or Friday) should be weighed more heavily than Saturday (or Sunday) aka the infamous two-game in three night small conference road trips. So what I am saying is that I am more likely to play a borderline game on a Thursday (or Friday) and more likely to layoff a borderline game on Saturday (or Sunday).
Lastly, there are just guidelines to help you dwindle down big cards and give you are things to consider besides the normal capping BS that you read on this forum (and many other including the 140-character site, hope you see how those "cappers" are doing - ouch). The fact is that most gamblers are still doing the same things that they were doing when the system blew up a number of years ago. They still bet big teams that are televised (and who, of course, have the tightest lines imaginable). They still bet favorites and they still feel completely stupid when they bet on small conference team that gets destroyed. Listen, we still need some of these game to lose (and if they are going to lose, we want it to be a spectacular trainwreck) because those cappers would rather lose their money watching an OSU game then tracking a Samford or Appy St game online.
Remember, keep it simple, don't overthink it, have fun and we are all in this together. I wont be around much or answering question but if Ryno wants to keep this thread alive and track the updated system plays (and he, as well as you guys, are welcome to tweak it as well) that is fine.
Ryno: I contacted you with some inside information for your eyes only
System Update (for those that are interested):
1. System should start Feb 13th (some would argue Feb 20th and they would have a point) and run to the end of the season and not include conference tourney games (although you could certainly use some of the principles to narrow down cards and look more closely at games).
2. System should use a sliding scale and begin around Kenpom 140, understand that for teams ranked by Kenpom between #140-200, lines should be DD before it qualifies as a play. For teams #200-Southern Utah, lines of 7.5 or higher to constitute a play (of course you are still welcome to use your own brain and consider games that just miss the criteria as games that you should possibly look at more closely and consider playing).
3. Games played on Thursday (or Friday) should be weighed more heavily than Saturday (or Sunday) aka the infamous two-game in three night small conference road trips. So what I am saying is that I am more likely to play a borderline game on a Thursday (or Friday) and more likely to layoff a borderline game on Saturday (or Sunday).
Lastly, there are just guidelines to help you dwindle down big cards and give you are things to consider besides the normal capping BS that you read on this forum (and many other including the 140-character site, hope you see how those "cappers" are doing - ouch). The fact is that most gamblers are still doing the same things that they were doing when the system blew up a number of years ago. They still bet big teams that are televised (and who, of course, have the tightest lines imaginable). They still bet favorites and they still feel completely stupid when they bet on small conference team that gets destroyed. Listen, we still need some of these game to lose (and if they are going to lose, we want it to be a spectacular trainwreck) because those cappers would rather lose their money watching an OSU game then tracking a Samford or Appy St game online.
Remember, keep it simple, don't overthink it, have fun and we are all in this together. I wont be around much or answering question but if Ryno wants to keep this thread alive and track the updated system plays (and he, as well as you guys, are welcome to tweak it as well) that is fine.
Reposting the infamous post 1241
Penn at +9 doesn't quite qualify (Yale is in Kenpom 140s), however it's a Friday game, so as KP outlines in bullet 3, he's more likely to go with a marginal game (I qualify this as marginal since it's close to the magic 10 line...also my personal favorite rating system has Yale in the 200s).
I'll be playing it to see how it does. However, I'm 99.9% sure Ryno will not count as an official play as I'm guessing he's sticking to the strict rules in bullets 1 and 2.
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