A Bright-line Rule Everyone Should Understand

Question

https://www.toddstake.com/2015/02/26/5-20-5-rule/

Fuhrman is a smart dude, and the "5-20-5" rule holds true year in and year out in college hoops.

Well worth the 60 seconds it will take to read. This is the principle I (and others) point to when I see threads on this forum saying "X TEAM SUCKS" or "I will never bet on X team again." This is a short-sighted way of thinking and will cost you money over the long haul.

It's also a strong indictment of the ridiculousness of "the eye test." If I watch a team during one of its 5 "best games," and you watch that same team during one of its 5 "worst games," then it seems we will have vastly different opinions of the exact same team, right?

Opinions/discussion welcomed on this rather interesting theory.

JFen31 · Answer

https://www.toddstake.com/2015/02/26/5-20-5-rule/

Fuhrman is a smart dude, and the "5-20-5" rule holds true year in and year out in college hoops.

Well worth the 60 seconds it will take to read. This is the principle I (and others) point to when I see threads on this forum saying "X TEAM SUCKS" or "I will never bet on X team again." This is a short-sighted way of thinking and will cost you money over the long haul.

It's also a strong indictment of the ridiculousness of "the eye test." If I watch a team during one of its 5 "best games," and you watch that same team during one of its 5 "worst games," then it seems we will have vastly different opinions of the exact same team, right?

Opinions/discussion welcomed on this rather interesting theory.

JROCK1966 · Answer

Trying to identify the 5 best, 5 worst, and 20 power-rated games of 351 college teams is quite a large chore JFen. What are your thoughts on whittling that chore down to manageable portions? Obviously focusing on one or two conferences would work. Any other ideas?

lv2ftfire · Answer

Do you still post picks JFEN?

j-walk · Answer

Love when you post JFen, always solid insight. And Todd's articles are always top notch and that dude knowledge is incredible. He's also a cool dude, he's taken time to answer a handful of questions I've thrown at him thru twatter.

I personally never bet based on my own personal evaluation of a team. I know my personal opinion will be skewed based on the last time I saw them on ESPN or something. It's spots pays or nothing for me, only way I can get an edge.

pickempro · Answer

Example: Oregon vs Cal last night. Tournament bubble needed another quality win. That&#x27;s why I took the 1st half &amp;,2nd &amp; game. It was a situational play. Just my 2 cents. Exactly what he describes.

JROCK1966 · Answer

There was a dude on here who used to post nothing but letter grades of teams based on how he felt their emotional / psychological states were. I have not not seen him post this year at all but I was looking for him at times and for the life of me I can&#x27;t remember his screen name. But I read this and wonder if the way he capped would be helpful with this rule. Does anyone remember who I am talking about?

IndyHoosier · Answer

I do remember this as well.  Can&#x27;t recall the name either, sorry.

allbees · Answer

HappyKane

Barn4 · Answer

missed seeing that.  but woulda found it interesting since that is somewhat similar to what I do as a capping tool.  I especially find team psyche important when capping MLB.

JROCK1966 · Answer

That&#x27;s him! What&#x27;s his 20?

JROCK1966 · Answer

See he posted yesterday in the NBA thread.

Michfan15 · Answer

Interesting for sure...Davidson is 19-4 ATS this year.  Worth blindly fading them for the rest of the season?

TRAIN69 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JFen31] https://www.toddstake.com/2015/02/26/5-20-5-rule/&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Fuhrman is a smart dude, and the "5-20-5" rule holds true year in and year out in college hoops.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Well worth the 60 seconds it will take to read. This is the principle I (and others) point to when I see threads on this forum saying "X TEAM SUCKS" or "I will never bet on X team again." This is a short-sighted way of thinking and will cost you money over the long haul. &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;It&#x27;s also a strong indictment of the ridiculousness of "the eye test." If I watch a team during one of its 5 "best games," and you watch that same team during one of its 5 "worst games," then it seems we will have vastly different opinions of the exact same team, right?&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Opinions/discussion welcomed on this rather interesting theory.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote] Its pretty much the same with baseball, where everyone wins 60 and loses 60, its the other 40 that matter. Obviously when a baseball team is -300 they should win as the stats will always point in that direction, but it simply doesnt happen that easily.&#xD;&#xA;I disagree about the "eye test". True, if you only watch one game you will possibly see the worst or best, but watching a team play multiple games at multiple venues can give you insight that looking at a spread sheet cant. Can a team handle the press? Do they get rattled on the road? Are their numbers skewed due to weak competition? Etc.&#xD;&#xA;Theres a reason no one has a system based on stats that puts out 60% winners....because its simply not that easy and there are so many variables that cant be quantified....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Always a pleasure JFen

iceman67 · Answer

yea,,  i think he was pretty much using biorhythms for players,,  the only time i remember them was him having Mark Buehrle listed as a D- or F for the following days game and he went out and threw a perfect game.   Maybe just an anomaly, but I never thought much of it after that.

A Bright-line Rule Everyone Should Understand

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