Advice for capping College Hoops

Okay, I love me some college ball, yet this year I am having a very up and down season.

Thanks to cappers on here to tail that I have made it up!

Yet, with that. I would love to hear some angles, numbers, etc. Basically any tips or tricks for capping some of these games.

I know I am trying to focus on some conferences such as: Big East & Big Ten a lot. I have heard focusing on a conference is better to get a scope for teams.

Would love to hear anything else I can use to my advantage!

Thanks in advance!

If I can give a quick run down, I have been betting for 8 years. In the beginning I got on some lucky runs, and then I also got greedy and learned the hard way not to chase. My favorite sport is college football without a doubt, but I want to learn about this fabulous sport.

I mention that to give a better gauge on maybe if they compare the two.

Watch for late movement. Happened quite a bit for me as of late. If I like something that’s +5.5 and it drops to +4.5. Chances are. You found a winner. Not saying it’s 100 percent guaranteed. But it’s been a positive for my experience. Also. I like the +1.5 line. I treat it like a +2.5 in football. Last but not least. Luck 

No need to over complicate it, just find bad teams (like New Mexico tonight) and bet against them.

@RebelTell2

Two simple statistical rules to follow:

-Never bet on a favorite with a worse A/T ratio its opponent.

-Never bet on a dog that shoots the trey less than 34% (rationale being that since they are a dog they will probably be behind and will depend on the trey to catch up and thus cover the spot.)

If you apply these two simple rules to your other handicapping methods, then you will cull out a lot of plays that are getting you in trouble.

Hope this helps,

RT2

@RebelTell2

 Thanks!

Another major source is using Kenpom effective efficiency stats. Being able to look at these numbers and identifying value in playing a dog. Also, tempo #'s to help with totals. Kenpom is a great source for looking how teams faired against similar opponents, home/away splits, experience, etc. All take about 5 mins per matchup to look into. Hope this helps!

@csmit19

 I have been using kenpom surprised on how cheap it was

Try to get injury info on key players.  If two many key players are out, a college team is very disadvantaged and cannot make up with hard work by other players.  Tonight Cal Bears will not have their two best scorers.  Line already reflects that.

Great info. Thanks for sharing!!!

This year is a bit more complicated then in the past. I think you really have to value the Covid shutdowns, transfer portal, and injuries. Road teams seem to be having more success as well.

With that said, everyone looks at games differently. I have always put a lot of Value in FT's. I want a team that is going to get to the line and make their FTs. That means fouls against and forced fouls as well as FT % comparison. This is the decider in a lot of close spreads. For that reason I also prefer spreads under 6-7.

FTs narrow games down for me since NCAAB has so many options. Next I look at player matchups (size differential and style). For instance some teams play 4 guards and a center. Some play 2 forwards 3 guards, etc. How does that match up with their opponent. Then I browse, turnovers, and rebounds to see if there is any glaring discrepancy. 

Finally, I have about 5 games I like at this point and I hit KenPom. A must have resource. I dont look for anything to specific but want to get a feel for styles of play if I am not familiar with the teams. Great stats on Offense and Defense adjusted for strength of schedule, which IMO has been huge this year with all the dumb double headers. 

Everyone is different and looks at different stats. No way works better than another and maybe there will be some takeaways from this. NCAAB is my most successful sport and when I'm disciplined I do well. BOL

It's like asking for a complete college education in one posting...It takes years son, and its like golf- Take it from a former golf hustler.. you have to practice the right way every time.. My sons will say stuff like "every time I do this, that happens" when one thing has nothing to do with the other..

Cause and effect

In essence, cause is the thing that makes other things happen. Effect refers to what results. It is the what happened next in the text that results from a preceding cause. To put it concisely, cause is the why something happened and effect is the what happened.

Just to carry on with Blackcannons - comment - Think in terms of X drives Y (cause and effect) - x are the data you believe cause one team to win vice another.   Collect the numbers and then follow patterns.  For example, very often teams with High assists, low turnovers and strong def. win games.   However, you need to also look at schedule strength and their ratings.   Finally, teams on the road may play differently than teams at home.   Always include the opening line of a game in your analysis - there's a reason why the line opened at -8 vice -7.5   .   You gotta do what the definition of statistics is all about - have a thought (hypothesis), collect the data, organize it, analyze it, document you results.  Repeat.....etc etc.   Takes a lot of effort but it may pay off for you.   

Good luck to you.