Posted:
#1
YTD: 26-15 (63.4%)
1-0 last play, winning the Weber St / Northern Colorado over on 2/23
Short on time since tip off is less than an hour away
Play: Air Force / UNLV Under 130.5This won't be a popular play since UNLV comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency and tempo ranked in the top 50 nationally, but the historical trends in this match up are too hard to ignore. In the 10 meetings since Jeff Reynolds came to Air Force as head coach in 2008, not once has the total exceeded today's total--this includes an overtime game in their first meeting this year. Not only have none of their meetings gone over today's total, this is actually the highest posted total during that span.
Now I know that players have changed, but coaching style with respect to tempo has not. In the last 5 years, Air Force has ranked in the bottom 25 with respect to tempo every year. UNLV has averaged between 65.2 and 69.5 possessions per game during this time. Ten games across a five year sample is significant enough in my opinion to think that today's tempo should be no different than previous meetings and be in the low 60's. Not only will there be a slower pacer, but UNLV brings a defense to the game that only allows 0.931 pts per possession (#39).
Lastly, since the spread is 16.5 points, there shouldn't be any late game scramble points and I can see the Rebels taking their foot off of the gas in the later stages of the game with a big lead.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
0
, Do you have to be that successful ? 
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