ARIZONA: $200 to win $12k

Need some advice: I placed a $200 bet on Arizona in the beginning of the season to win $12,000.

I was going to wait until the Elite 8 to start hedging. I was thinking something like: $2k (Elite 8,) $4k (Semifinals,) $6k National Championship, but that wouldn’t leave me any profits if they won the whole thing.

What would you guys do to hedge it? Thank you in advance. I appreciate it.

I would hedge it for a couple reasons. Your in is so little. Also mainly because houston is so athletic they match up really well with Arizona. I would bet 1500 on houston , spread not ml 

thats 1500 risking and I would buy to 3 could be close and you win both. 

then depending on next line do the same thing. If you lose 3 bets and they win it all you win 7500-200 so 7300 total. If they lose you make over 1000 on that game. That is my take without even thinking much into it. 

goodluck I like houston but not enough to be extremely confident 

what are you happy locking in?  if they make the final four, the ticket is still only worth around 3k so your current plan is way overhedged.

i might suggest something like 500 in elite 8, 1500 final four, 7k finals

@jgjtrapboss

 your math is off they have to win 4 games. your way overhedged

You are a little early to be getting overly aggressive on a hedge in my opinion, but if it were me, I would feel comfortable dropping 1k on houston ML (if you can get it back at +110), if not take the spread +1.5 if you are more comfortable trying to win both, then reassess where you are next week.

If Arizona wins, hopefully for you Villanova wins, then your juice will be less, and then obviously moving forward you would prefer to be dealing with Kansas 

I really wouldn't be sweating this too much, its kinda early, and Houston has every capability to end their season tomorrow night

Just throw something on Houston and be happy to walk away a winner regardless

Sorry late night thinking well he would still win 5k only If they won it all. 

I would do 1k a game on oppo spreads depending on game. 

I would take houston +3-120 to win 1500 because I like houston just my opinion 

@JDD

You are saying I’m a little early to start hedging (after I said I was looking to start hedging in the Elite 8) & then you suggest starting to hedge in the Sweet 16 vs Houston? I’m not sweating anything. I just have so much upside with such a small wager down, thought I had a nice opportunity to win at least a few thousand. 

@jgjtrapboss

 $1k a game on oppo spreads doesn’t make since. If they win tomorrow night, I’m down $1k so a $1k wager in the Elite 8 on oppo spread wouldn’t net me any money at all. That goes against my goal of guaranteeing myself some money.

@Tailbait

Then good luck.....don't hedge

nobody cares

you ask for advice.......which personally I wouldn't have to.........and multiple people suggest the same thing..........and you say that doesn't make sense

If you know, then go do you, what do you need help with?

Clown cars everywhere

And if you go read my comment, I said you shouldnt be OVERLY AGGRESSIVE on a hedge.  Maybe you just read what you wanted to.  Either way.  Good luck

Take houston then let it ride if it hits 

I think houston wins. If you want to martingale it bet 

500 on Houston 

1200 next game 

3000 next game 

5000 oppo on championship 

if you did that which I wouldn’t you would win 3k if Arizona wins , and still profit 1k if they don’t 

however I would bet houston +3 and try to win both cause I like them and want to double dip. Take it take by game and let it ride. Houston is athletic and can win 

Take it easy on the hedge amounts bro. If they won it all and you broke even that would be the worst feeling in the world. Lemme do some math, I'll be back 

Math is off but you win 1,000 either way with that scenario , I don’t really care about little money on a bet like that. 

take houston for 1500 risking buying to +3 to try to win both. Zona easily can lose to Houston. 

Listen to duke I’m running off numbers in my head if you did what I said above you would best case win 2k 

@JDD

 A little sensitive are we? You just contradicted yourself saying “it’s too early to hedge,” then suggested me hedge a round earlier in the Sweet 16. ?? ? 

I would wait in game and possibly get Houston +500 or more if they are down … should be plenty hedge situations in game if you feel the need to 

@dduukkee

 Yeah, I feel you man. That’s why I’m fighting the urge to start hedging in the Sweet 16 - it wouldn’t leave me with much or anything if Arizona went all the way.

I didn’t place the bet thinking Arizona was going to win it all - I was just hoping to get in a situation where I could guarantee a nice payout by hedging. I think I’m pretty close to that situation.  I’m thinking I’ll start Elite 8. 

Definitely appreciate your advice on wager amounts for the hedge. Only thing that will start affecting it is when Arizona is the underdog - I’ll have to pay juice to get the favorites on the moneyline.

I have an 0-83 Trend that Zona will not make Final 4 .......... sorry won't share this one .... only with my Twitter Group

Just letting you know ....... hey this could be the year the trend goes away

BOL !!!

I would never hedge a future until the final, otherwise I just wouldn't make the bet in the first place. But that's just me. And i can see why you would want to 

They looked very vulnerable last game, 1st year coach, guard that came back from injury can't hit a 3 keeps taking them

You are only in $200. You have a lottery ticket that needs 7 numbers you have 3. No need to risk money on Houston that isn't hedging that is betting. Final Four would be the earliest "hedge" but if Arizona makes it to the Final hedge away. No guarantee this young Arizona team makes it past this round. Do you feel it is a hedge because it is under one basket? If Arizona was favored by 10 against a different team you would not "hedge", correct? You are more worried about losing than truly being in a position of hedging.  If you had $2000 on Arizona then maybe you could put a little on Houston but still doesn't make too much sense. Stick to your pick and good luck to you. I have a ticket on Villanova but I bet against them not as a hedge but because I didn't think they would win or cover.  

@FRANKtheBANKss

 You are spot on and I always respect what you say.

I agree - it’s not a hedge at this point. I’m not worried about the $200 wager. It’s the upside potential that I have with the $12k potential profit that I feel like I’m very close to being able to secure a good amount of cash. 

@Tailbait

 honestly your best bet would be to sell on propswap or something like that. they're now +500 implying 16%, you have 60/1 implying 1.6%. so in theory you have made 10x on your investment so even selling with vig you could prob get like 1600 for your ticket

Did you plan to hedge when you made the bet? If so, hedge when Arizona gets to the Final 4 or the Finals. Otherwise let it ride...

Best way to hedge a $12K possibility is to put $1K against Kanas tonight in a parlay with any other team you belive my win this way if they lose you get back $2700 and if they win you only lost 1k and still have funds to hedge the final 8. But in my opinion you ride without a hedge until the final 8

I have been where you are and urge to protect what can be can easily drive you nuts but reality is you are already down $200 until Kansas raises the troughy so why make the potential loss worse. Ride Kansas to the final four and then splash some $$$ as a hedge. FYI KANSAS SMOKES THEM TOMM PROVIDENCE IS OUTCLASSED!!!!!!!

First, let me congratulate you on getting great odds, I only got them at +5000 preseason and only put $20 on them, I’m simply going to wait , but the comments above are very wise to follow With your larger wager