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Arkansas. Please help!!!!!

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Posted: #1
im about to get down pretty large on Arkansas. I can't beleive the line is so low though. Making me suspicious. Am I missing something here?
 
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Posted: #2
I agree it's a suspiciously low line, but have already put a ton on Arkansas. I'm a Gamecock fan, follow the team diligently, and don't understand it. The Gamecocks will not win, not happening tonight. Even though it's at SCAR it's Spring Break so there won't be home court advantage. Also, it's senior night, which might help as well because they'll start all seniors who don't get much playing time.
 
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Posted: #3
 
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Posted: #4

I bet OSU last night - similar thing. Missed it by "this much".

Fishy line again. Well I'm fishing again. SC for me.

gl !!

 
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Posted: #5
Got a dime on Arkansas-1 & and ML
Let's do this
 
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Posted: #6
Thanks guys. I think the books are probably not trying to tip their hand here. Just seems insane to me that Arkansas would lose here. If they do I will have to live with it. I like temple also
 
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Posted: #7
GL guys
 
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Posted: #8
 
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Posted: #9
The entire covers forum is on Ark, thats pretty damn terrfiying....I'd stay far away lol
 
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Posted: #10
I thought the same thing last night with Oregon -1 @ Oregon St.  I took the Ducks because they are the better team and playing the better ball.  Arkansas needs to win 1 of next 2 to get the double bye in the SEC tourney.  I say they wrap it up tonight.
 
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Posted: #11
For what it's worth, RealTime RPI predicts a 1 point win by the 'Cocks 
 
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Posted: #12
Ark it is  GL 
 
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Posted: #13
For what it's worth.. Ark has never won at Colonial Center 0-6 all time
 
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Posted: #14
Colonial Life Arena **
 
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Posted: #15
I am very aware of that. I'm only concerned about tonight though 
 
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Posted: #16
The line is spot-on.

If you like Arkansas, fine. But there is nothing wrong with the number.

This forum would be a better place for everyone if people understood how lines are made, specifically the methodology behind oddsmakers' power ratings...


 
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Posted: #17
Arkansas -1.5, OKC +1, Wisconsin Minnesota over 131, dallas Portland under 199. GL
 
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Posted: #18
ARK IS 06 LIFETIME IN SC BUILDING.. I HAVE ARK BY 1.. ILL TAKE THE +2.5 AND MAKE IT 3
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

The line is spot-on.

If you like Arkansas, fine. But there is nothing wrong with the number.

This forum would be a better place for everyone if people understood how lines are made, specifically the methodology behind oddsmakers' power ratings...



Oh neat oh man, thanks for pointing that out. This forum would be a better place if morons didn't make useless posts though. This line should have been like Arkansas -3.5 and then moved to 4. What are you contributing to my thread? I was just trying to get some input. 
 
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Posted: #20
You started a thread with a predetermined opinion so anyone offering up thoughts to contradict your already made up mind are making useless posts??? GFY cuz. If you like Arky bet em, if you like cock suck it.
JFen is nothing but an asset to this board.

 
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Posted: #21
Is Arkansas the better team? Absolutely. 
Should they win? Probably (I'd put it at a 70% they win)
However....

Once again, Vegas is being smart as hell and scaring everyone.

There are two lines of thinking why this game is only at -1.5 for me. 
1) Arkansas is not a great road team (other than at Auburn, every conference road game for them has been within a couple points). South Carolina usually plays tough at home and with Senior night blah blah we all know the deal. 

2) It's a trap! Either way it's a trap. The thing is, with everyone thinking Arkansas will win tonight it makes me wonder if the line was something like -4 would we even be talking about this? No. However, since it is almost a pick-em, people begin to worry that Vegas knows something that we don't about South Carolina potentially winning. Almost always Vegas knows something we don't. 

I have a feeling Vegas is keeping this close to get money on SC, tricking people into feeling SC has a good chance to win. I don't believe in the hype that is Senior Night... And Arkansas having not performed well in the past against SC means nothing to many of these players and some of the guys that haven't won there are hungry for a victory. 

All in all, if you're just guessing on the game don't pick it. I do not see a blowout like their earlier matchup. I forsee a game much like Oregon/ Oregon State last night; tight all the way through. 

Arkansas by 3
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by AnthonyStarks:


Oh neat oh man, thanks for pointing that out. This forum would be a better place if morons didn't make useless posts though. This line should have been like Arkansas -3.5 and then moved to 4. What are you contributing to my thread? I was just trying to get some input. 

KenPom has SC by one.

Sagarin has SC by two.

These are the two metrics relied upon by oddsmakers in setting lines. They're 100% based on math and are not biased or influenced by human perception.

Also, Arky was an 8-point favorite at home in their previous meeting last month @ Bud Walton. Give the standard 3.5-4 pointsfor home court, and you get a line of PK/Arky -1.

Again, seems like a fair line, no?

 
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Posted: #23
Let's face it. Arkansas struggles on the road and they have for the past few years. But they have improved this year to the point of actually pulling out 5 SEC road wins. To say they have improved on the road is an understatement. But! None of these wins were what one might call "dominating" hence the small line tonight. They did win by 14 at Auburn but Auburn plays at the same pace and I would not expect the tonight. The reason I am backing them tonight is I would expect SEC's #2 team, and a team that has some around the country talking about them going deep in the NCAA tourney, to be able to find a way to win against a team that is last in the conference in shooting...2ptrs and 3ptrs it doesn't matter. USCjr cannot shoot.

       
 
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Posted: #24
Sorry for the long post, I just wanted to help anyone out cuz I see a lot of people talking about this game on the boards.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by WeWantTebow:

Is Arkansas the better team? Absolutely. 
Should they win? Probably (I'd put it at a 70% they win)
However....

Once again, Vegas is being smart as hell and scaring everyone.

There are two lines of thinking why this game is only at -1.5 for me. 
1) Arkansas is not a great road team (other than at Auburn, every conference road game for them has been within a couple points). South Carolina usually plays tough at home and with Senior night blah blah we all know the deal. 

2) It's a trap! Either way it's a trap. The thing is, with everyone thinking Arkansas will win tonight it makes me wonder if the line was something like -4 would we even be talking about this? No. However, since it is almost a pick-em, people begin to worry that Vegas knows something that we don't about South Carolina potentially winning. Almost always Vegas knows something we don't. 

I have a feeling Vegas is keeping this close to get money on SC, tricking people into feeling SC has a good chance to win. I don't believe in the hype that is Senior Night... And Arkansas having not performed well in the past against SC means nothing to many of these players and some of the guys that haven't won there are hungry for a victory. 

All in all, if you're just guessing on the game don't pick it. I do not see a blowout like their earlier matchup. I forsee a game much like Oregon/ Oregon State last night; tight all the way through. 

Arkansas by 3


Agreed. 
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