Bags Elite 8 Monday Play **Houston -7.5**

Houston -7.5 

Sometimes you have to look the other way if you see faults in others. Laying the points here. 

Oregon State in this tourney has played 3 teams outside the the top 40 KP offensive efficiency rating. Houston comes in ranked #9 pre tournament and currently #8. By far the toughest offensive team this Beaver team will face. 

I didn’t bet it, but I felt Loyola of Chicago-6.5/-7 and was the right side...only thing that held them from winning/covering was inability to knock down key FT’s, hitting theopen 3’s, and playing their defense for 2 halves.  Loyola shot a miserable 21% from the arc vs 36% during regular season. Felt like their defensive focus shifted from their normal style of play to focusing too much on missed shots offensively. 

Houston isn’t the team to make the same mistake as Loyola. Team plays with grit, swag, battles consistently...pretty much all the essential tools to dismantle this Beavers team. Projecting a +9 point win.

Good points Bags - should be a good matchup - I’m hoping for a OSU cover 

whichever team that hits more 3’s and converts 2nd chance opps on the offensive glass should prevail

Both well coached teams - I like the Beavers more at crunch time at the line with Thompson to keep it under the #

and possibly pull of another upset. GL on your plays 

Great analysis neighbor!   

@pdog22

  Likewise. Just feeling Thompson won’t have the same success vs a much longer & more athletic guard matchup with Houston. Just feel he might try to do too much in this spot. 

Adding: 1H Houston ML -250.

Hate laying this much juice, but just can’t imagine OSU ahead after 20 minutes vs a physics team like the Cougs. 

LB........

Adding: Arkansas/Baylor Over 147.5

Nice writeup........

Cougs played one of their best halves all year

Why Over 147.5?

Way too many UNDERS hitting in this tourney...most would be afraid to lay this number.  

Arkansas only way to keep this close is to play loose & run with Baylor. I expect Baylor to also  play aggressively on offense....really attacking the rim with “street ball” style defense in Arkansas. Can’t imagine either team playing physical defense or slowing the game down. I expect lots of ball movement, hitting open 3’s, and fast breaks. Most importantly, these 2 teams will need to get their offensive flo going and tuned for their next potential opponent of (defensive minded) Houston and most likely high octane offense in Gonzaga.