Bags March Madness Tournament Plays.

Time is here ladies & gents. By far my most favorite sport to cap. Don’t study, watch, or bet many other sport as much as college ball. In fact, I look forward to my boys annual trip to Vegas every year - eat & drink plenty, and most importantly watch 4 days of non-stop bball. Been pretty profitable last 9+ years, so let’s see where 2021 plays takes me.

This year I’m a little more prepared - I’ve probably spent 20+ hours studying teams since Sunday in hopes that OT pays off in the end. I’ve  built an excel model of teams stats, reviewed 2-3 year team schedule history, coach/players profile, & KP ratings. I’ve also been watching YouTube tape of teams 2-3 hours daily.

I’ll be posting all my single plays, parlays in this thread for reference. Best of luck, and as always do your study and be smart with your plays. 

Pending futures I’ve placed back in October,2020.

Gonzaga 10/1

Baylor 14/1

Nova 16/1

Wisconsin 30/1

Texas 75/1

Some quick thoughts to picking your teams...

1. Elite offense is key. 16 of 26 championship teams were in the top 5 Ken Pom offensive efficiency....reviewing FT% and 3PtFG % is great start to your research.

2. Turnover margin is critical. Turnovers = free possessions. I tend to look for slower paced teams in the 1st couple rounds vs uptempo type teams. More often than not, it’s the turtle that wins the race, not the rabbit. 
 

3. Experience! Senior/Juniors guards and a strong head coach is key to advancing. I look for underdogs that fit this mold. Similar to winning a Super Bowl in the NFL with an elite/veteran QB, college ball works the same way with its guards. 

I will be in vegas March 25-31..will you be around?

You and I look at similar type criteria

@umgmu
I’ll be there March 18-22.  Best time to go IMO. Not sure how it’ll be this year with distancing, but should be fun regardless.

Key stats:

Worst FT & 3pt shooting teams combined:

North Carolina, Rutgers, UNCG, and Cleveland State.

Best FT & 3pt shooting teams combined: 

Michigan, Virginia, FSU, Colgate, Liberty, Drexel, & Oral Roberts. 

Slow Tempo Teams w/ high efficiency scoring;

Houston, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nova, Texas Tech, and UCLA.

Fast Tempo Teams w/ high efficiency scoring:

Gonzaga, Alabama, & Arkansas. 

Great stuff! This thread is bookmarked. Thanks Bags. 

@jazzee

 Np. Hate to admit it, but it’s the one time out of the year where I put March Madness studying before anything else. 

GL Bags, love the subject and material in this thread. Looking forward to your insights

So from your perspective, does this 3pt and FT excellence lead to upsets or covers?    Sure, FT's are auto, but 3's with some aggressive and highly athletic higher rated opponents...I am thinking Liberty and Colgate here.  Yes, I am on Oklahoma State and Arkansas...As we all know on the playground, its easy to drain 3's when no one's in your face, do these overachieving mid majors have what it takes for 40 minutes to drain enough 3's and make enough FT's to stay competitive with two of the best performing teams to close out the regular season?    Thanks in advance for your perspective...

Any totals on your radar? I'm eyeballing LSU/Bonnie's U144 and ok st/liberty U141.....

LBD

@LonghornHoosier
“So from your perspective, does this 3pt and FT excellence lead to upsets or covers?” -  I’m looking for upsets w/ single digit spread and the cover w/ DD line. 

FT’s and 3pt % for mid majors is crucial. But yeah, initial thought is I expect more faves to cover than dogs winning or covering in the 1st round. I think we’ll get to see more dogs to bark the 2nd round. Looking at 1-2 dogs at most for Fri/Sat. 

@TRAIN69

Good seeing you Train. Love Under plays. But been seeing way too many bad beats w/ O/U’s. Haven’t drilled down on any, but do like LSU/Bonnie Under. If Bonnies want any chance in winning, they’ll need to play physical. 

Worst FT Shooting Teams ( Below 67%)

USC, Creighton, North Carolina, Rutgers, Cleveland State.

Worst 3pt Shooting Teams (Below 32%)

NC, Rutgers, Michigan State, UNCG, Cleveland State, App State, Texas Shouthern.

Slow Tempo/Bad 3pt%
Rutgers, Cleveland State, & App State

Fast Tempo/Bad 3pt%
Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Eastern Washington, & Texas Southern. 

@LB_Dirtbags Great thread, especially 3 quick thoughts! Good luck on your tourney plays, BOL!

Good Luck my friend!  Let's cash this March!   

GL in the tourney LB_DirtBags 

Let the Madness begin

1st play: Mt St Mary’s/Texas Southern Under 133.5 (1U)

2nd play: Davidson ML -135 (1.35U to win 1U)

1-1 Thursday. 

Singles: 

North Texas +7.5 (5U)

Wisconsin +1.5 (2U)

Drexel +22.5 (2U)

Ohio State -16 (2U)

Houston -20(2U) 

Parlays:

1. Loyola of Chicago ML, North Texas ML, Rutgers ML, Ohio State -16 (1U pays 16U)

2. Drexel +22.5, Houston -20, Wisconsin +1.5, Liberty ML (1U pays 22U)

LB.........