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Betting patterns

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Posted: #176

Tjtorok11, I honestly think you have a very good idea.  These plays seem to be hitting much more than not.

 
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Posted: #177
When people try to explain line movements to me its frustrating, because line movement is the exact way I came up with this system. 80% is a large number, so if 80% of the public are betting on a line, you would have to think that 20% of people throughout the day are betting 80% on that line or it would shift throughout the day. Its not logical to think there would be no line movement if 80% are betting on one side. You guys are all trying to tell me that20% of the people are just stupid enough to keep riskong 80% more on a line to keep it down instead of letting it shift to a better line for themselves. If I saw that 80% were betting on a line and I liked the other line, I would wait for the line to shift in my favor. If it never shifts then mathematically20% of the people have to risk 80% more the entire day... No one thinks that's not fishy?
 
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Posted: #178

Your system will have you winning much more than you will lose.

 
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Posted: #179
I appreciate it titan
 
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Posted: #180

If I can help you in any way let me know.peace_5

 
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Posted: #181
On larger cards of people notice any lines that are staying the same as they opened or going the opposite way of the public betting on them, feel free to post them on here. I like to only look at ones 80% and higher cause it seems to be more consistent
 
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Posted: #182
Like if bears open-3 vs Vikings and 80% bet bears, if the spread is stays at 3 or goes under 3 I think something is fishy with that line. If it goes took-4.5 or more points, I don't really see an issue cause the spread should move with heavy amount of betting towards one side
 
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Posted: #183
How have you used this in the past?
 
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Posted: #184
Think about it, the books have a crazy streak of winning years, I read an article recently about it, but can't find it anymore. Most of the people betting on sports are usually majority on the same side, whether it's the dog or the favorite. Again, when you think the dog can cover, bet the favorite, when you think the favorite can cover easily, bet the dog. Reverse pick what you like and you'll win more often than not. There is some psychology behind the way the line is set and they do it in away to sway which way you will bet. They can't predict this for every game, but for the majority they know which side they want the majority of the money bet on. 
 
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Posted: #185
You can compare this to a small sample size just reading people's picks on this site. Skim through the threads. Yesterday, almost everyone was on ETSU, St. Peters, Iona, UNCG, Milwaukee, etc. None of these teams covered. If you see 9 out of 10 people going one way, it's not a good sign. If it's 60/40 or 50/50 you have a better chance. 
 
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Posted: #186
So far for today's games, these are showing reverse line movement: URI has dropped 1 point, Toledo dropped .5, TCU went up .5, Missouri State dropped .5, Xavier dropped 1 point, OU dropped 1 point, Iowa dropped .5, A & M dropped .5, Kentucky dropped 1.5 points. This is what I can see right this second. I would keep my eyes on these throughout they day. Kentucky is showing the biggest drop right now. 
 
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Posted: #187

Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Like if bears open-3 vs Vikings and 80% bet bears, if the spread is stays at 3 or goes under 3 I think something is fishy with that line. If it goes took-4.5 or more points, I don't really see an issue cause the spread should move with heavy amount of betting towards one side
OVER the years I've seamed to notice RLM works better in cbb. Again...i think its been addressed but when you see 80 percent on 1 side...thats the amount of tickets taken . When you see the number going the opposite way, that indicates "usally" that someone knows something and fired a stack the opposite way. I pointed out the citadel game last night. It had moved 3 whole pts at the time. No telling what kind of money it took to move it that much. 

Again... I apologize if I'm stating somthing that has already been pointed out about RLM. I just didn't want to read through all the clutter. Been playing this way for yrs and it doesn't always work out, but it usally does

 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by rake122:

OVER the years I've seamed to notice RLM works better in cbb. Again...i think its been addressed but when you see 80 percent on 1 side...thats the amount of tickets taken . When you see the number going the opposite way, that indicates "usally" that someone knows something and fired a stack the opposite way. I pointed out the citadel game last night. It had moved 3 whole pts at the time. No telling what kind of money it took to move it that much. 

Again... I apologize if I'm stating somthing that has already been pointed out about RLM. I just didn't want to read through all the clutter. Been playing this way for yrs and it doesn't always work out, but it usally does


Agreed, I was on Citadel as well. Usually if the RLM is 2 points are greater, you should pull the trigger on the other side. ETS dropped 3.5 points yesterday, lol. 
 
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


Agreed, I was on Citadel as well. Usually if the RLM is 2 points are greater, you should pull the trigger on the other side. ETS dropped 3.5 points yesterday, lol. 

But yes, you can't stick to the same strategy all the time, I like to switch it up. I have another strategy I use where I write down all the spread picks I like and then go through each one and reverse pick the ones I feel the most confident about. That works well for me too. 
 
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Posted: #190
The one that stands out to me so far is cmu. Opened at -6 75% on flu and its -5 now
 
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Posted: #191
And eastern started at -4.5. 70% on emu and its down to 2.5 
 
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Posted: #192
And south Dakota st opened at 15, 77% on them and its 14.5 now
 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

And south Dakota st opened at 15, 77% on them and its 14.5 now

I'm showing 89% on South Dakota, lol. 
 
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Posted: #194
The Baylor one really stands out. Dropped 3 points with 70% riding Oklahoma
 
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Posted: #195
Hahah well now more so on South Dakota!
 
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:

"Vegas bets big numbers"? 

What? So they make pets at their own book to get you to think one way or the other...?

Ok..thats enough.. I tried... you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.. 

Here comes Etsu

Bro...you really....really...need to lay off that green stuff you drink...Absynthe?  ...whateves....it is rotting your freaking brain from the inside and what you spew on the outside is really starting to stink.

ETSU...lol...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #197
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

The Baylor one really stands out. Dropped 3 points with 70% riding Oklahoma

I only see that it dropped 1 point from 7.5 to 6.5 currently. Strongest play so far is UMASS. 2.5 point drop. 
 
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Posted: #198
I thought it opened at 9 and its down to 6 for Baylor game
 
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Posted: #199
Yeah I like umass with everyone on Rhode island and the line dropping. I'm gonna hope I can get it at 8, same with Baylor, if I can wait and get it a little higher I'm gonna try
 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Yeah I like umass with everyone on Rhode island and the line dropping. I'm gonna hope I can get it at 8, same with Baylor, if I can wait and get it a little higher I'm gonna try

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets to 8.5 or 8 by tipoff. Compare to other people's picks on here, and if you see alot riding URI, I'm almost certain UMASS will cover. I even thought the 10.5 was too cheap as URI has been rolling and UMASS has been a garbage show. I'm seeing a lot of cover's love for St. John's cover today, I even liked them initially in this spot, so I might just take Xavier instead. Or maybe these lines are dropping because of how yesterday's board played out. Could be getting tricked.
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