Posted:
#26
In Pregame Forum there is a gravatar like yours. VegasButcher is his name. Is this you Bodio?
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Bodio's FINAL FOUR
bol
Posted:
#33
Someone asked me why I'm playing Kentucky here, so here's a quick breakdown:
#1: REVENGE
Sure some people might discount it but check out what Kentucky did revenging their losses this year:
Lost to UNC -- beat them in the Elite game last week
Lost to Georgia -- beat 'em by 6 next time out
Lost to 'Bama -- beat 'em by 14 in the SEC tourney
Lost to 'Ole Miss -- beat 'em by 9 in the SEC tourney
Lost to Florida -- beat 'em twice!
Lost to Vandy -- beat 'em by 2 next time out
Lost to Arkansas -- didn't get a chance to play them again.
LOST to UCONN for their loss of the season -- REMATCH this saturday!
Revenging a loss is one thing, but making adjustments and improving their play against a team they saw the first time, well, that's exactly what Kentucky has done time and time again this year. Calipari has modified the game plan, made changes and his team responded with a different outcome every time.
#2: Maturity
This young squad has really grown over a course of the season and improved their play. They're playing really well as a unit, much better than they did in the beginning of the season.
#3: Talent
Kemba Walker might be the best player on the court, but Kentucky has overall better talent than UConn. I'll go back to that SDSU game. Even though UConn won the game, they were not the better team on the court when the 5 starters from each team were on the court at the same time. Leonard picking up a technical foul, which was his 2nd foul, early in the game completly changed the dynamic of that contest. Sure, without him out there, San Diego State wasn't the same team and that's when Kemba and Co. did most of their damage. When he, and the rest of the starters were out there, UConn was the inferior team. If you watched the game, you know that was the case. Well, I feel that Kentucky overall has the superior talent. This team is very sound and does not foul much on the defensive end, thus I expect their starters to play most of the minutes in this one. I expect the overall 'talent' difference to be apparent in this one.
#4: Statistics
Kentucky: #7 offensive efficiency / #20 defensive efficiency
UCONN: #11 off. eff / #28 def eff
Kentucky: 52.7% EFG% offense / 44.9% EFG% defense
UCONN: 48.5% EFG% offense / 45.1% EFG% defense
Neither team turns the ball over much on O and neither team generates many turnovers on D. Both rebound the ball well.
One other crucial factor is 3PT shooting. Kentucky is ranked #7 in the nation at 40% from 'downtown, while UCONN is #201 at 33.7%. 3PT shooting was the difference in the game against UNC, why wouldn't it make a difference in this one as well?
#5: Strength of Schedule
Kentucky had the #20th out-of-conference schedule compared to #86 for UCONN. Sure, the difference is probably not that great, but even so, it's a factor that favors UK. They've played tougher squads (outside their conference) and have more experience dealing with various styles of play. Here's a list of notable out-of-conference opponents for each school (top 30) during the regular season:
UK: Washington; UCONN; UNC; Notre Dame; Louisville
UCONN: Kentucky
Win or lose, I love Kentucky in this spot.
Good luck all!
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Bodio I have been following your plays, you do not know me, but I have a question. I have a 5 team parlay & the last pick on this parlay is Kentucky -2.5. What advice can you give me. Thanks for your suggestion & hard work in posting write-ups you are greatly appreciated.
Someone asked me why I'm playing Kentucky here, so here's a quick breakdown:
#1: REVENGE
Sure some people might discount it but check out what Kentucky did revenging their losses this year:
Lost to UNC -- beat them in the Elite game last week
Lost to Georgia -- beat 'em by 6 next time out
Lost to 'Bama -- beat 'em by 14 in the SEC tourney
Lost to 'Ole Miss -- beat 'em by 9 in the SEC tourney
Lost to Florida -- beat 'em twice!
Lost to Vandy -- beat 'em by 2 next time out
Lost to Arkansas -- didn't get a chance to play them again.
LOST to UCONN for their loss of the season -- REMATCH this saturday!
Revenging a loss is one thing, but making adjustments and improving their play against a team they saw the first time, well, that's exactly what Kentucky has done time and time again this year. Calipari has modified the game plan, made changes and his team responded with a different outcome every time.
#2: Maturity
This young squad has really grown over a course of the season and improved their play. They're playing really well as a unit, much better than they did in the beginning of the season.
#3: Talent
Kemba Walker might be the best player on the court, but Kentucky has overall better talent than UConn. I'll go back to that SDSU game. Even though UConn won the game, they were not the better team on the court when the 5 starters from each team were on the court at the same time. Leonard picking up a technical foul, which was his 2nd foul, early in the game completly changed the dynamic of that contest. Sure, without him out there, San Diego State wasn't the same team and that's when Kemba and Co. did most of their damage. When he, and the rest of the starters were out there, UConn was the inferior team. If you watched the game, you know that was the case. Well, I feel that Kentucky overall has the superior talent. This team is very sound and does not foul much on the defensive end, thus I expect their starters to play most of the minutes in this one. I expect the overall 'talent' difference to be apparent in this one.
#4: Statistics
Kentucky: #7 offensive efficiency / #20 defensive efficiency
UCONN: #11 off. eff / #28 def eff
Kentucky: 52.7% EFG% offense / 44.9% EFG% defense
UCONN: 48.5% EFG% offense / 45.1% EFG% defense
Neither team turns the ball over much on O and neither team generates many turnovers on D. Both rebound the ball well.
One other crucial factor is 3PT shooting. Kentucky is ranked #7 in the nation at 40% from 'downtown, while UCONN is #201 at 33.7%. 3PT shooting was the difference in the game against UNC, why wouldn't it make a difference in this one as well?
#5: Strength of Schedule
Kentucky had the #20th out-of-conference schedule compared to #86 for UCONN. Sure, the difference is probably not that great, but even so, it's a factor that favors UK. They've played tougher squads (outside their conference) and have more experience dealing with various styles of play. Here's a list of notable out-of-conference opponents for each school (top 30) during the regular season:
UK: Washington; UCONN; UNC; Notre Dame; Louisville
UCONN: Kentucky
Win or lose, I love Kentucky in this spot.
Good luck all!
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by ICU:
Bodio I have been following your plays, you do not know me, but I have a question. I have a 5 team parlay & the last pick on this parlay is Kentucky -2.5. What advice can you give me. Thanks for your suggestion & hard work in posting write-ups you are greatly appreciated.
Bodio I have been following your plays, you do not know me, but I have a question. I have a 5 team parlay & the last pick on this parlay is Kentucky -2.5. What advice can you give me. Thanks for your suggestion & hard work in posting write-ups you are greatly appreciated.
What advice can I give you? Don't ever bet 5 team parlays!
Good luck tomorrow. Go CATS!
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Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Nope. Didn't like either side and the totals on both games have been adjusted down by the books, so it's a PASS for me as well.
Kentucky -2 is the only play tomorrow...
Earlier you said there was no value on the unders because the books adjusted their totals down. However:
Butler/VCU opened at 131 and now is at 134
You aware of that?
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by WrightsvilleB:
Earlier you said there was no value on the unders because the books adjusted their totals down. However:
Butler/VCU opened at 131 and now is at 134
You aware of that?
I thought it opened at 133. I see anywhere between 133 and 134 now, so it's not really that significant of a move IMO.
GL
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Posted:
#46
bodio, u always have great write ups which i respect much. But i thought you were missing something about this game. Ofcourse you mentioned Kemba Walker saying he is the best player on the court but Kentucky has more talent which is true. But i dont think Kemba will be the deciding factor in this game. If Kemba does have a bad game Uconn will lose, no brainer. You know with his talent this prob wont happen. I think this game is all about J. Lamb. When Lamb scores between 15-25 points a game this takes lots of pressure off of Kemba. Anytime Lamb does this the odds for Uconn winning goes way up. So with that being said......Lamb has a good game, Uconn wins. Lamb has a bad game, Kentucky wins.
Thanks for your info, always good stuff. Good luck
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by drifter44:
I see that you are on UK and is a solid pick, I am leaning on the Over FH for both games. If you had a gun to your head how would you lean on these FH totals. I rarely ask anyone for advise, so with all due respect, whacha think??
I see that you are on UK and is a solid pick, I am leaning on the Over FH for both games. If you had a gun to your head how would you lean on these FH totals. I rarely ask anyone for advise, so with all due respect, whacha think??
I usually focus on spots to take the UNDERs in major tournaments like this. Unfortunately the books have really lowered the totals in the 2 games tonight, therefore it was an easy pass for me. Gun to my head I would say OVER in BUT/VCU and UNDER in KEN/UCONN
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