Bodio's FINAL FOUR

In Pregame Forum there is a gravatar like yours.  VegasButcher is his name.  Is this you Bodio?

Yes

Thank you Sir !

Someone asked me why I'm playing Kentucky here, so here's a quick breakdown:

#1: REVENGE

Sure some people might discount it but check out what Kentucky did revenging their losses this year:

Lost to UNC -- beat them in the Elite game last week

Lost to Georgia -- beat 'em by 6 next time out

Lost to 'Bama -- beat 'em by 14 in the SEC tourney

Lost to 'Ole Miss -- beat 'em by 9 in the SEC tourney

Lost to Florida -- beat 'em twice!

Lost to Vandy -- beat 'em by 2 next time out

Lost to Arkansas -- didn't get a chance to play them again.

LOST to UCONN for their loss of the season -- REMATCH this saturday!

Revenging a loss is one thing, but making adjustments and improving their play against a team they saw the first time, well, that's exactly what Kentucky has done time and time again this year.  Calipari has modified the game plan, made changes and his team responded with a different outcome every time. 

#2:  Maturity

This young squad has really grown over a course of the season and improved their play.  They're playing really well as a unit, much better than they did in the beginning of the season.

#3:  Talent

Kemba Walker might be the best player on the court, but Kentucky has overall better talent than UConn.  I'll go back to that SDSU game.  Even though UConn won the game, they were not the better team on the court when the 5 starters from each team were on the court at the same time.  Leonard picking up a technical foul, which was his 2nd foul, early in the game completly changed the dynamic of that contest.  Sure, without him out there, San Diego State wasn't the same team and that's when Kemba and Co. did most of their damage.  When he, and the rest of the starters were out there, UConn was the inferior team.  If you watched the game, you know that was the case.  Well, I feel that Kentucky overall has the superior talent.  This team is very sound and does not foul much on the defensive end, thus I expect their starters to play most of the minutes in this one.  I expect the overall 'talent' difference to be apparent in this one.

#4:  Statistics

Kentucky: #7 offensive efficiency / #20 defensive efficiency

UCONN: #11 off. eff / #28 def eff

Kentucky:  52.7% EFG% offense / 44.9% EFG% defense

UCONN: 48.5% EFG% offense / 45.1% EFG% defense

Neither team turns the ball over much on O and neither team generates many turnovers on D.  Both rebound the ball well.

One other crucial factor is 3PT shooting.  Kentucky is ranked #7 in the nation at 40% from 'downtown, while UCONN is #201 at 33.7%.  3PT shooting was the difference in the game against UNC, why wouldn't it make a difference in this one as well?

#5:  Strength of Schedule

Kentucky had the #20th out-of-conference schedule compared to #86 for UCONN.  Sure, the difference is probably not that great, but even so, it's a factor that favors UK.  They've played tougher squads (outside their conference) and have more experience dealing with various styles of play. Here's a list of notable out-of-conference opponents for each school (top 30) during the regular season:

UK: Washington; UCONN; UNC; Notre Dame; Louisville

UCONN:  Kentucky

Win or lose, I love Kentucky in this spot.

Good luck all!

What advice can I give you?  Don't ever bet 5 team parlays!

Good luck tomorrow.  Go CATS!

Nope.  Didn't like either side and the totals on both games have been adjusted down by the books, so it's a PASS for me as well.

Kentucky -2 is the only play tomorrow...

I thought it opened at 133.  I see anywhere between 133 and 134 now, so it's not really that significant of a move IMO.

GL

Nope

Quote Originally Posted by billyweather:

GL bro, solid record this season. Hope you go out with a bang here!!

me too!

bodio, u always have great write ups which i respect much.  But i thought you were missing something about this game.  Ofcourse you mentioned Kemba Walker saying he is the best player on the court but Kentucky has more talent which is true.  But i dont think Kemba will be the deciding factor in this game.  If Kemba does have a bad game Uconn will lose, no brainer. You know with his talent this prob wont happen.  I think this game is all about J. Lamb.  When Lamb scores between 15-25 points a game this takes lots of pressure off of Kemba.  Anytime Lamb does this the odds for Uconn winning goes way up.  So with that being said......Lamb has a good game, Uconn wins.  Lamb has a bad game, Kentucky wins. 

            Thanks for your info, always good stuff.  Good luck

I usually focus on spots to take the UNDERs in major tournaments like this.  Unfortunately the books have really lowered the totals in the 2 games tonight, therefore it was an easy pass for me.  Gun to my head I would say OVER in BUT/VCU and UNDER in KEN/UCONN

Quote Originally Posted by snake2710:

BOL on thaty with ya already

thanks Snake.  You too!