Bradley / Southern Illinois Total

YTD: 15-9 (62.5%)

On a 1-4 slide in the L5, but going to continue to use the methodology that got things off to a hot start this season and have been successful for me in past seasons.

Play:  Bradley / Southern Illinois Over 137.5

This one should be no surprise to regular readers of my posts. As I mentioned in my 1/17 thread, SIU was on an 11-0 run to the over with the run coinciding with the return of Kendal-Brown Surles (discipline) and Dantiel Daniels (injury) to their lineup.

So why the value tonight with the over again? SIU is coming off a season worse 42 point effort vs Wichita St in which they shot 17-50 (34%) from the field. But this poor showing can be somewhat excused when considering that they faced a Shocker defense that is ranked 14^th best in the country with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency only allowing 0.883 pts per possession.

Bradley is also coming off its own woeful performance—a 48 point effort vs Missouri St. But the Bears are no slouch on defense either and are only allowing .939 pts per possession (#63). Neither of these teams will be facing a defense like that tonight as both come in ranked in the bottom half of the country in defensive efficiency allowing more than 1.015 pts per possession.

So situationally speaking, we have a great opportunity to buy low on an over with both offenses coming off of terrible offensive efforts—but there is more to like.

SIU has only played one conference game this season that went under tonight’s total (that being its last game vs WSU), and have averaged 68.8 possessions through its 9 MVC games. Tonight they face the fastest paced team in the conference in Bradley, who is averaging 70.2 possessions per game (35^th fastest in the country). This is important when breaking down the first meeting these two teams had on 1/4. Despite hitting 139 (on a posted total of 137), it was actually the slowest paced game that both teams have had this year in conference. The game only had 64 possessions and I would expect a regression back to the mean tonight, and a much faster pace. KenPom predicts 71 possessions.

So despite both teams being on great runs to the over (SIU 12-1, Bradley 8-2), I think tonight presents a great spot to back another over due to the results that both teams had in their last games as well as the uncharacteristic “slow” pace to their January match up.

Best of luck if you decide to make a play

I do, but more infrequently than my over plays. Actually 2-0 on posted unders this year

I know you don't want my opinion on this but if a play I have is on pace for the OVER at half it usually ends ends well. There are so many factors to help you at the end of the game that don't help you when backing an UNDER. There are more stoppages with timeouts, end of game fouling, and the possibility of OT that helps an OVER.

Last night it was about Santa Clara starting the second half 2-18. They went over 5 minutes without a single point. Those kind of stretches always kill an OVER. You can't really cap those kind of things especially when they shot 47% in the first half.

BoomMoney, I appreciate your questions and here's my take on things.

The methodology and statistics that I use are based on full game results, and thus should be applied to full game plays (either over or under). Now are there exceptions to every rule, of course there are. But in the long run, I believe this is the way to go purely statistically speaking.

Because for every game that is on pace in the first half like the URI/Fordham or LMU/Santa Clara games were that don't go over, there are games like Hawaii/Fresno St from a couple weeks ago that do go over due to OT despite a 55 point first half. And just as Yacker stated, the end game scenarios (fouling, OT, etc.) are reflected in the full game statistics each team has at this point in the season and hence should be applied to full game over or under plays.

Hope this helped explain my position a little bit better

Trec, appreciate the viewpoint and always welcome a contrarian position to the discussion

However, I think I addressed some of the points the article makes in my post with respect to early season results vs more recent results. Since getting their full roster back around the time of their trip to Hawaii for the Diamond Head Classic, the team has transitioned away from a slow, methodic, defense oriented team that shut people down as they article suggests in their first eight games. As a result of this style and tempo change, we have seen a 12-1 run on overs. You can't totally negate early season results, but in terms of handicapping, they are almost irrelevant at this point in the season as we are well into the heart of the conference schedule and one is much better served focusing on L5 or L10.

And does the writer of the article really consider their first game vs Bradley a "dominating" victory--a game in which they only led by 2 at halftime, were outrebounded, only created 13 turnovers, and allowed the Braves to shoot 45% from the field?!

BOL tonight