I have one strong play for late Saturday/early Sunday morning. Match kicks at 2AM US CDT. Can't make it a $$$$ at the current price, but it's my go to over cash cow in Australia.
Brisbane Roar - Newcastle Jets OV 3 (-145)
Obviously the juice is too high to qualify for a $$$$ play. I'm sure a lot of books will give you an offering at OV 3.5, which could very well hit, but I am (obviously) less confident in that number, and the stronger play for me is at 3, which I think is worth the juice for protection against a 3 goal final.
Anyway, no big surprise here, and just cannot get off the train yet. Roar have had their last 11 matches hit 3 goals or more, and TEN of those had 4 or more. That's an insane run. It WILL end at some point, so certainly not going all in here, but a solid 2 unit play (risking almost 3 units), which is about as much as I usually go.
Newcastle aren't a scoring machine by any means, but they way this one plays out, hopefully we won't need to count on them for more than 1. I also have a decent sized play at Brisbane -1.5 (even). Newcastle are out, nothing to gain, nothing to lose here. They cannot make the playoffs. Roar however have a LOT to gain/lose. They still have a great shot at winning the regular season title, and if they finish in top 2 they get a bye to the semi-finals of the league playoffs (Australia one of the few soccer leagues that use playoffs). A win puts them back in the top 2, so I don't see any reason why they don't come out with their usual attack. Brisbane -1.5 is a 1 unit play. Obviously, hoping for a Roar blowout winner.
BOL if you decide to tail. Now the decision becomes whether or not to stay up to watch it. Yeah....I think I will!
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I have one strong play for late Saturday/early Sunday morning. Match kicks at 2AM US CDT. Can't make it a $$$$ at the current price, but it's my go to over cash cow in Australia.
Brisbane Roar - Newcastle Jets OV 3 (-145)
Obviously the juice is too high to qualify for a $$$$ play. I'm sure a lot of books will give you an offering at OV 3.5, which could very well hit, but I am (obviously) less confident in that number, and the stronger play for me is at 3, which I think is worth the juice for protection against a 3 goal final.
Anyway, no big surprise here, and just cannot get off the train yet. Roar have had their last 11 matches hit 3 goals or more, and TEN of those had 4 or more. That's an insane run. It WILL end at some point, so certainly not going all in here, but a solid 2 unit play (risking almost 3 units), which is about as much as I usually go.
Newcastle aren't a scoring machine by any means, but they way this one plays out, hopefully we won't need to count on them for more than 1. I also have a decent sized play at Brisbane -1.5 (even). Newcastle are out, nothing to gain, nothing to lose here. They cannot make the playoffs. Roar however have a LOT to gain/lose. They still have a great shot at winning the regular season title, and if they finish in top 2 they get a bye to the semi-finals of the league playoffs (Australia one of the few soccer leagues that use playoffs). A win puts them back in the top 2, so I don't see any reason why they don't come out with their usual attack. Brisbane -1.5 is a 1 unit play. Obviously, hoping for a Roar blowout winner.
BOL if you decide to tail. Now the decision becomes whether or not to stay up to watch it. Yeah....I think I will!
I don't like the idea of creating a new leaderboard for baseball.
All cappers should be accountable for the picks they've already posted. The leaderboard tells us who has been picking winners and who hasn't.
I kind of agree, but perhaps we can keep a total record, and a separate baseball record, since some guys might be better at just baseball, but their record will get lost if it's mediocre in other sports. Of course AGAIN, easy for me to say since I'm not doing the work!
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Quote Originally Posted by barnone:
I don't like the idea of creating a new leaderboard for baseball.
All cappers should be accountable for the picks they've already posted. The leaderboard tells us who has been picking winners and who hasn't.
I kind of agree, but perhaps we can keep a total record, and a separate baseball record, since some guys might be better at just baseball, but their record will get lost if it's mediocre in other sports. Of course AGAIN, easy for me to say since I'm not doing the work!
I don't like the idea of creating a new leaderboard for baseball.
All cappers should be accountable for the picks they've already posted. The leaderboard tells us who has been picking winners and who hasn't.
Should definitely start new record for baseball considering a majority of plays will be baseball also maybe some of the really good college basketball cappers might not be so good in baseball which could mislead people new to the site
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Quote Originally Posted by barnone:
I don't like the idea of creating a new leaderboard for baseball.
All cappers should be accountable for the picks they've already posted. The leaderboard tells us who has been picking winners and who hasn't.
Should definitely start new record for baseball considering a majority of plays will be baseball also maybe some of the really good college basketball cappers might not be so good in baseball which could mislead people new to the site
A resounding yes, thanks for everything you did to keep the thread alive Bubba. I say we keep it going, especially with baseball coming up. It's always been hard for me to cap and would really love to continue coming to this thread each morning and getting the insight from everyone here.
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#keepthethreadalive
A resounding yes, thanks for everything you did to keep the thread alive Bubba. I say we keep it going, especially with baseball coming up. It's always been hard for me to cap and would really love to continue coming to this thread each morning and getting the insight from everyone here.
First off thank you again for putting the time into this. I actually run one window of cappers records while another to read posts!
I've been on this site for 7 years and outside of Lippsman in the NHL, this is the only place where juvenile boosting, bitching and belittling of other is rare and if it happens, is shamed immediately.
That is worth gold my friend. I just want to come somewhere where I can get extra good insights, no drama. I think it could go to MLB and you might pick up some good new blood and if it gets nasty, move it back to CBB.
There is opps in NHL Playoffs and NBA-I know 2 very good proven systems-road teams in round 1 and 2 usually cover in game 1 or 2 paying net +$$ and NBA playoffs teams usually cover the next game after a big blow out...
I'm best at 60% in NFL over many bets and look to help there...
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Bubba:
First off thank you again for putting the time into this. I actually run one window of cappers records while another to read posts!
I've been on this site for 7 years and outside of Lippsman in the NHL, this is the only place where juvenile boosting, bitching and belittling of other is rare and if it happens, is shamed immediately.
That is worth gold my friend. I just want to come somewhere where I can get extra good insights, no drama. I think it could go to MLB and you might pick up some good new blood and if it gets nasty, move it back to CBB.
There is opps in NHL Playoffs and NBA-I know 2 very good proven systems-road teams in round 1 and 2 usually cover in game 1 or 2 paying net +$$ and NBA playoffs teams usually cover the next game after a big blow out...
I'm best at 60% in NFL over many bets and look to help there...
I am not trying to be rude or be insensitive by making people feel left out but this is directed to the frequent contributors that can be found on the leaderboard. I have noticed the number of posts and views have steadily declined after the first two rounds of the tourney and believe this is not due to the quality of the leaderboard cappers in this thread but directly correlated to the number of college basketball games available. With college basketball only being alive for 3 more days I feel the time is upon us to make a decision.
Do we continue this thread after Monday?
Baseball would be the bulk of events on the card starting next week. I am not forgetting about NBA and NHL playoffs but I do think the NBA/NHL can be very tricky to cap and you have to be very selective. Also I know we have a couple of soccer players out there but the # of matches and thus picks while extremely valuable are also small in number. I am basically asking for thoughts and advice for justifying the continuation of this thread. If we can come to a consensus that would be great. If the vote is no than I am sure I will run into you all on Covers soon and USC will start this thread again late in the NCAAB season, if the vote is yes than the thread will be moving to the MLB Forum starting on Tuesday to gather more viewers. Thanks for your responses!
I realize this was not addressed at me however I typically have action going 3-4 times a weeks and this thread in particular is one of my sources I review everyday. I really appreciate everything you and usc_holmey do on a daily basis. I stopped posting because I usually have my final cap decisions 15 minutes before game time and I still use a traditional book so I use that time to make my bets. I have posted a few contrarian plays that have paid I believe I am 5-3 to date since joining. So I for one would love for this thread to continue and can only say thank you for everything you and the everyday contributors provide selflessly for the rest of us to benefit from!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:
@Leaderboard
I am not trying to be rude or be insensitive by making people feel left out but this is directed to the frequent contributors that can be found on the leaderboard. I have noticed the number of posts and views have steadily declined after the first two rounds of the tourney and believe this is not due to the quality of the leaderboard cappers in this thread but directly correlated to the number of college basketball games available. With college basketball only being alive for 3 more days I feel the time is upon us to make a decision.
Do we continue this thread after Monday?
Baseball would be the bulk of events on the card starting next week. I am not forgetting about NBA and NHL playoffs but I do think the NBA/NHL can be very tricky to cap and you have to be very selective. Also I know we have a couple of soccer players out there but the # of matches and thus picks while extremely valuable are also small in number. I am basically asking for thoughts and advice for justifying the continuation of this thread. If we can come to a consensus that would be great. If the vote is no than I am sure I will run into you all on Covers soon and USC will start this thread again late in the NCAAB season, if the vote is yes than the thread will be moving to the MLB Forum starting on Tuesday to gather more viewers. Thanks for your responses!
I realize this was not addressed at me however I typically have action going 3-4 times a weeks and this thread in particular is one of my sources I review everyday. I really appreciate everything you and usc_holmey do on a daily basis. I stopped posting because I usually have my final cap decisions 15 minutes before game time and I still use a traditional book so I use that time to make my bets. I have posted a few contrarian plays that have paid I believe I am 5-3 to date since joining. So I for one would love for this thread to continue and can only say thank you for everything you and the everyday contributors provide selflessly for the rest of us to benefit from!
...Keep it going.... IMO after CBB tag the final standings onto the opening thread at the bottom of the thread and start a MLB record best of both worlds peeps can see the past results and the MLB hot pickers..JMO... TY..
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...Keep it going.... IMO after CBB tag the final standings onto the opening thread at the bottom of the thread and start a MLB record best of both worlds peeps can see the past results and the MLB hot pickers..JMO... TY..
I love this thread and am appreciative of Bubba's work and contributions in making this the most informative read every day. There are quality writers and handicappers that have shown up, and keeping the leader board structure as is, makes the most sense to me. The fresh start would complicate matters for Bubba, and keeping things consistent over time contributes to its success. Also, the newbies, such as myself, will have time to work their way up the ladder, but it's very valuable to look at who has had long term consistent success especially as seasons and sports change.
It would be great to see this continue through the NBA/NHL seasons and adding the influx of MLB to cover a wide range of contributors expertise. Also, the opportunity to read up on Golf, Soccer, and other Sports where contributors have knowledge specificity, gives the average Joes-me included, an insight to potential profits otherwise ignored.
Best wishes to all and I will continue to look for Bubba and the $$$$ wherever it may land.
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I love this thread and am appreciative of Bubba's work and contributions in making this the most informative read every day. There are quality writers and handicappers that have shown up, and keeping the leader board structure as is, makes the most sense to me. The fresh start would complicate matters for Bubba, and keeping things consistent over time contributes to its success. Also, the newbies, such as myself, will have time to work their way up the ladder, but it's very valuable to look at who has had long term consistent success especially as seasons and sports change.
It would be great to see this continue through the NBA/NHL seasons and adding the influx of MLB to cover a wide range of contributors expertise. Also, the opportunity to read up on Golf, Soccer, and other Sports where contributors have knowledge specificity, gives the average Joes-me included, an insight to potential profits otherwise ignored.
Best wishes to all and I will continue to look for Bubba and the $$$$ wherever it may land.
The idea of having folks explain their picks is so simple and but super helpful. Popping on peoples threads and just having them list bets never did a lot for me. This thread has very detailed cappers that share their finding and very instinctive cappers that give a great feel. These two things combines is what makes this thread ROCK!
I was lucky to catch Holmey's version early since I remembered him from the CBS forums back in the day.
Jack Ryan
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The idea of having folks explain their picks is so simple and but super helpful. Popping on peoples threads and just having them list bets never did a lot for me. This thread has very detailed cappers that share their finding and very instinctive cappers that give a great feel. These two things combines is what makes this thread ROCK!
I was lucky to catch Holmey's version early since I remembered him from the CBS forums back in the day.
I like Syracuse $$$$ +9.5 for the following reasons :
+9.5 is a mountain of points to give to a team with a great defense
+9.5 is a large spread if you believe this game will be low scoring as UNC is a shooting team and Syracuse is 36% from 3 and NRG stadium is not conducive for shooters as well documented. ~4% lower shot percentage averaged across all games played at NRG Stadium.
If you buy into low scoring and tough shooting arena you agree that the CUSE defense will have no serious problems shutting down the paint if UNC becomes one dimensional.
The NRG effect may be the great equalizer for a great defensive team like Syracuse I always love defensive teams getting more than 7 point and +9.5 (-110) is great buying the book is even better! (See point one)
Finally at this level it is never easy to beat a good team three times in a row UNC will be attempting to do that and a scrappy team like CUSE may even win outright (small play at +440 is tempting)
Key Indicators for this matchup
3/25 CUSE V. GONZAGA 63 60 Spread was +4 cover & outright win
2/29 CUSE V. UNC 70-75 Spread was +13 cover closely contested
3/27 CUSE V. UVA 68-62 Spread was +8 Cover and Outright win
2/27 UNC V. UVA 74-79 Spread was +2 Loss and No cover
Best of luck let's kill the books this weekend!
Footnote Math also predicts at 68% for Syracuse +9.5 to cover
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I like Syracuse $$$$ +9.5 for the following reasons :
+9.5 is a mountain of points to give to a team with a great defense
+9.5 is a large spread if you believe this game will be low scoring as UNC is a shooting team and Syracuse is 36% from 3 and NRG stadium is not conducive for shooters as well documented. ~4% lower shot percentage averaged across all games played at NRG Stadium.
If you buy into low scoring and tough shooting arena you agree that the CUSE defense will have no serious problems shutting down the paint if UNC becomes one dimensional.
The NRG effect may be the great equalizer for a great defensive team like Syracuse I always love defensive teams getting more than 7 point and +9.5 (-110) is great buying the book is even better! (See point one)
Finally at this level it is never easy to beat a good team three times in a row UNC will be attempting to do that and a scrappy team like CUSE may even win outright (small play at +440 is tempting)
Key Indicators for this matchup
3/25 CUSE V. GONZAGA 63 60 Spread was +4 cover & outright win
2/29 CUSE V. UNC 70-75 Spread was +13 cover closely contested
3/27 CUSE V. UVA 68-62 Spread was +8 Cover and Outright win
2/27 UNC V. UVA 74-79 Spread was +2 Loss and No cover
Best of luck let's kill the books this weekend!
Footnote Math also predicts at 68% for Syracuse +9.5 to cover
This line opened at 149.5 and got pummeled down to 144 because of all the NRG stadium low scoring media coverage. But what about the 3-point drill coverage this week? And the fact that Buddy Hield made it a point to take extra practice shots all week starting Wednesday, and that Nova just got to the game 40 minutes ahead of schedule to get accustomed to the atmosphere? My initial thought it that depth perception might be an issue, but if you've ever played basketball at a competitive level, you know players get in the zone, and tunnel vision is a thing.
Both these teams are multi-dimensional, scoring from beyond the arc as well as inside the paint, and Oklahoma will push the pace and the score because after seeing the Jayhawks go down trying to pay possession ball, they won't even try it. The sooners have too many bigs that can score inside which will compress Nova's perimeter defense allowing buddy hield to get good looks from down town.
Remember when the big 12 OVER was a trend during the season? Well I see this as more of a big 12 game than a big east game, Nova has consistently dominated the big east over the recent years, which has really limited them from watching game tape of other conference teams, notably the sooners who haven't been in this spot for a while, as a result Nova will have to produce on offense and defense should be long forgotten after the half.
Other extraneous factors: highly advertised TV event means a longer game, large stadium = large crowd which should disrupt defensive communication, and vegas is long the over given all the action on the under, and vegas always wins, let's tail vegas and make some $$$$.
As for the thread, I mentioned my thanks in Friday's thread so obviously the answer is a unanimous YES everyone loves this thread, and we all appreciate you Bubba. I agree that it should be moved to the MLB Forum, and from what I know theres a $$$$ tracker that a member is keeping track of. Given that the record already includes different sports, I see no reason why we should reset the records. If a capper wants to try his hand at other sports while risking his record, he should be able to do so, but in the mutual interest of the thread as a whole, those new to capping a new sport should clarify that they are new as I did with my NBA post yesterday (went 1-1). I am a Football/Basketball guy but I live with an MLB Guru so I will be posting MLB plays from his guidance.
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$$$$ Pick : Villanova/Oklahoma OVER 144 (-115)
This line opened at 149.5 and got pummeled down to 144 because of all the NRG stadium low scoring media coverage. But what about the 3-point drill coverage this week? And the fact that Buddy Hield made it a point to take extra practice shots all week starting Wednesday, and that Nova just got to the game 40 minutes ahead of schedule to get accustomed to the atmosphere? My initial thought it that depth perception might be an issue, but if you've ever played basketball at a competitive level, you know players get in the zone, and tunnel vision is a thing.
Both these teams are multi-dimensional, scoring from beyond the arc as well as inside the paint, and Oklahoma will push the pace and the score because after seeing the Jayhawks go down trying to pay possession ball, they won't even try it. The sooners have too many bigs that can score inside which will compress Nova's perimeter defense allowing buddy hield to get good looks from down town.
Remember when the big 12 OVER was a trend during the season? Well I see this as more of a big 12 game than a big east game, Nova has consistently dominated the big east over the recent years, which has really limited them from watching game tape of other conference teams, notably the sooners who haven't been in this spot for a while, as a result Nova will have to produce on offense and defense should be long forgotten after the half.
Other extraneous factors: highly advertised TV event means a longer game, large stadium = large crowd which should disrupt defensive communication, and vegas is long the over given all the action on the under, and vegas always wins, let's tail vegas and make some $$$$.
As for the thread, I mentioned my thanks in Friday's thread so obviously the answer is a unanimous YES everyone loves this thread, and we all appreciate you Bubba. I agree that it should be moved to the MLB Forum, and from what I know theres a $$$$ tracker that a member is keeping track of. Given that the record already includes different sports, I see no reason why we should reset the records. If a capper wants to try his hand at other sports while risking his record, he should be able to do so, but in the mutual interest of the thread as a whole, those new to capping a new sport should clarify that they are new as I did with my NBA post yesterday (went 1-1). I am a Football/Basketball guy but I live with an MLB Guru so I will be posting MLB plays from his guidance.
I just created an account to say that this thread has been an UNBELIEVABLE tool for someone who is new to betting...great insight and I absolutely hope this thread continues!!! I vote yes and thank Bubba for his time with keeping it alive this long!!
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I just created an account to say that this thread has been an UNBELIEVABLE tool for someone who is new to betting...great insight and I absolutely hope this thread continues!!! I vote yes and thank Bubba for his time with keeping it alive this long!!
Villanova-2.5 Tonight will be the "Last"college game for the great Buddy Hield. Villanova have played great defense all tournament taking out the number one overall seed Kansas in their last game. In my opinion Oklahoma counts too much on two players to score Hield and Cousins this will be their downfall tonight as the Wildcats play tough man on man defense and will hold Hield to a reasonable number. In comparison Villanova has four capable scorers causing headaches for the Sooners D. I don't think this game is even close I see the Wildcats winning by double digits.
BOL Fade or Follow
PS YES keep the thread going
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Villanova-2.5 Tonight will be the "Last"college game for the great Buddy Hield. Villanova have played great defense all tournament taking out the number one overall seed Kansas in their last game. In my opinion Oklahoma counts too much on two players to score Hield and Cousins this will be their downfall tonight as the Wildcats play tough man on man defense and will hold Hield to a reasonable number. In comparison Villanova has four capable scorers causing headaches for the Sooners D. I don't think this game is even close I see the Wildcats winning by double digits.
My only two wagers so far: Red Wings ML, Florida Panthers Under.
I haven't made a decision on the Final Four but 10 points is a lot to pass up with Syracuse. Good thing it is the late game and I can see how hockey goes. The only NBA game that jumped out at me was the Bulls down to -2. I think this team for the first time all season is playing with a little bit of urgency. If Butler plays his game and shoots close to the basket they win and cover. Saturday night, United Center, both teams clawing at the bottom of the playoffs, there is going to be a lot of energy in the house tonight and you hope the home team can feed off of this. Going to see how that first period of hockey goes as well with that game but those are my plays and leans so far. None of those are $$$$s.
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My only two wagers so far: Red Wings ML, Florida Panthers Under.
I haven't made a decision on the Final Four but 10 points is a lot to pass up with Syracuse. Good thing it is the late game and I can see how hockey goes. The only NBA game that jumped out at me was the Bulls down to -2. I think this team for the first time all season is playing with a little bit of urgency. If Butler plays his game and shoots close to the basket they win and cover. Saturday night, United Center, both teams clawing at the bottom of the playoffs, there is going to be a lot of energy in the house tonight and you hope the home team can feed off of this. Going to see how that first period of hockey goes as well with that game but those are my plays and leans so far. None of those are $$$$s.
Worthbob here, i posted my $$$$ play on Syracuse +9.5, hit submit, took a long time to write up. On my samsung galaxy 6, thats how i roll. Want credit for ths play. I love this play Where did my heart felt post go?????.
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Worthbob here, i posted my $$$$ play on Syracuse +9.5, hit submit, took a long time to write up. On my samsung galaxy 6, thats how i roll. Want credit for ths play. I love this play Where did my heart felt post go?????.
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...Keep it going.... IMO after CBB tag the final standings onto the opening thread at the bottom of the thread and start a MLB record best of both worlds peeps can see the past results and the MLB hot pickers..JMO... TY..
3,500 GAMES TO MUCH TO LONG GOOD BYE TO NCAA
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