YTD: 13-3 (1-0 last posted play on 1/5)
Classic example of a situation where we can buy low on an over based on the recent performances of both teams
Play: Buffalo / Ohio Over 141.5
Buffalo enters tonight with its most offensively efficient team since ’04 averaging 1.066 pts per possession (#73) while playing at an above average adjusted tempo of 69.6 possessions per game (#52). However, in their last time out vs Kent St, they played to a season low in possessions (62) and could only muster 65 points. This snapped a streak of four straight games scoring 78+ points.
Ohio comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.048 pts per possession (#96) while also playing at an above average adjusted tempo of 68.8 possessions per game (#97). However, they are coming off back to back games in which they shot less than 39% and a combined 7-46 from 3-point land.
As you can see, recent results are not indicative of the offense and pace with which both teams will bring to the game tonight. Recent meetings also support this opinion as the teams have played to finals of 186, 141, 141, and 145 over the last two seasons.
More noteworthy though is the fact that both teams are playing faster this year than last year, with Buffalo actually playing +3.2 possessions faster. Yet Vegas set the totals for last year’s match-ups at 145 and 144.5—4+ points higher than tonight’s total
I can see a 70+ possession game based on the style that both teams want to play (KenPom predicts 71). Add this to the fact that both teams enter tonight ranked in the top 100 nationally with respect to adjusted offensive efficiency of more than 1 pt per possession, a total set at 141.5 is too low.
There are also a couple other miscellaneous characteristics that are nice to have when backing an over. First is the fact that Buffalo enters tonight #15 in the country in FTA/FGA which leads to scoring with no time coming off the clock. Secondly, only one other team in the country (Cleveland St) generates more turnovers per possession than Ohio which at times should lead to easy transition points.
Good luck if you decide to make a play.
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