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CBB - Tuesday 12/22 - 12 Noon EST Alert

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Posted: #1
Here are my Monday night leans for Tuesday:

MIchigan State +8.5
Akron -11.5
OVER Ohio/Pitt 130
Butler +2.5
UNDER Buff/Wisc GB 143.5
Arkansas -1
Texas Tech -6.5
LSU +5
Nevada +8.5
W. Carolina +15
St. Peters +12.5
Murray State +3



Here is my first official play for Tuesday:

12 Noon Tuesday Special:

UNDER UNC GREENSBORO/RICHMOND 128 (2.25 UNITS) - Richmond ranks 327th in Pace in the country. SOunds slow huh? Well, it's really a snail's pace when you realize they rank 327th and when you take a close look at 7 of their 11 opponents and their pace ratings:

VMI - 1st
Longwood - 15th
S. Carolina - 25th
Missouri - 28th
Lehigh - 37th
VCU - 48th
Chattanooga - 60th

Now here are their points allowed and the game totals for those games:

VMI - 59 points total of 162 (VMI's averages 98.4 ppg)
Longwood - 52 points allowed, total of 117
S. Carolina 76 points allowed; total of 134
Missouri - 52 points allowed; total of 111
Lehigh - 53 points allowed; total of 118
VCU - 65 points allowed; total of 122
Chattanooga - 49 points allowed; total of 124

If it wasn't for such high paced opponents, the Spiders would have a pace close to Samford-like territory.

Richmond ranks 15th nationally in Defensive Efficiency allowing just .868 points per possession. When you take a look at the the Spider's opponents, they have faced many teams with solid Offensive Efficiencies:

Mississippi State - 20th - scored 63 points
Old Dominion - 57th - scored 60 points
Missouri - 58th - scored 52 points
VMI - 88th - scored 59 points
Florida - 95th - 53 points
VCU - 97th - 65 points
South Carolina - 106th - 76 points

Meanwhile Greensboro ranks 225th in Offensive Efficiency and 158th in tempo. This game is being played at 12 noon. It's somewhat of a flat spot for the Spiders coming off a huge win against Florida so I don't expect them to be pumped offensively. I don't think Greensboro will break 50!
 
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Posted: #2
Like it GH may tail you here...
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:

Like it GH may tail you here...


Keep up the great work UNC.
 
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Posted: #4
sounds good this game should be a sleeper
 
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Posted: #5
Be wary of LSU vs anyone with a pulse.

The two teams worth a shit on their schedule blew them out and they have struggled vs everyone else.
 
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Posted: #6
You beat me to it Gamehunter!!!!!!  And saved me a write-up

Keep those winners coming!
 
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Posted: #7
Thanks GH.......good work amigo

 
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Posted: #8
 
 
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Posted: #9
Awesome info. Thanks for sharing that. I'm on it at 127.5
 
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Posted: #10
 
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Posted: #11

Dont you think this game screams under. I was also looking at it. Both teams are averaging in the fifties. Im starting to think richmond ups the tempo here coming home and show blow them out. Hence the opening line of -22 now down to -20.

Good luck on your pick game but if the number stays strong where its been set I will be on the over. It would fall under my sucker bet theory. GL either way at least someone will win.

Although if game shifts more than 3 pts to the under I think you have a winner and I will play first half under

 
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Posted: #12
UNC Greensboro sucks they won't score 50 might give up 80 tho

team is awful
 
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Posted: #13

wow 9am  game pst...........might have to wake up for this one

 

any leans on the SPREAD?

 
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Posted: #14
Nice write up ..
 
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Posted: #15
With you on the under - also lean towards memphis early game under as well - but ultimately no play on it.  I know you believe Missouri St is completely overrated, it there something about the matchup with Arkansas in particular you like or just a complete fade of Missouri St?
 
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Posted: #16
The only 2 games I have opposite of you  are Wash St and UAB .. BOL
 
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Posted: #17
gl game
 
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Posted: #18

Like the Under here, been noticing Richmond defense all year.

 
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Posted: #19
hunter, accept my friend request ...

good luck ...
 
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Posted: #20
got this early bird special 2 gl.
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
 
Rookie
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Posted: #23
I enjoy your right-ups.Thank you for taking the time and posting your work.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by holdem:

Dont you think this game screams under. I was also looking at it. Both teams are averaging in the fifties. Im starting to think richmond ups the tempo here coming home and show blow them out. Hence the opening line of -22 now down to -20.

Good luck on your pick game but if the number stays strong where its been set I will be on the over. It would fall under my sucker bet theory. GL either way at least someone will win.

Although if game shifts more than 3 pts to the under I think you have a winner and I will play first half under

 

????betting a first half under AFTER the game moves down 3 pts is a horrible strategy..what are u waiting for..u cap the game and make ur decision early...sometimes it moves ur way sometimes it doesnt but u dont wait and come in late....over time that is a losing strategy especially if u bet the halftime...a point and a half in a halftime is a huge move....

 
 
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Posted: #25
Alright GH  the stats don't lie, you hooked me. I'm rolling with you on the under. Let's start the day off right.


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