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    All Forums | College Basketball

    CBB Friday, 27-18 ATS

    12 Next Last»
    spottie2935
    wolfeman3
    cincyquencher
    D-Town
    shakey12381
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    12 Next Last»
     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 2:56 AM ET #1

    NEB +15

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E+2015+and+HF+and+rank%3C14+and+o%3Aats+streak+%3C+-1+and+day%21%3D+Thursday+and+day+%21%3D+Sunday+and+o%3Awins%3C15+and+o%3Awins%3E7+and+month%3D1+and+line%3C-5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    NEB +15

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E+2015+and+HF+and+rank%3C14+and+o%3Aats+streak+%3C+-1+and+day%21%3D+Thursday+and+day+%21%3D+Sunday+and+o%3Awins%3C15+and+o%3Awins%3E7+and+month%3D1+and+line%3C-5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 3:37 AM ET #2

    Yale +2

    Nova PK

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season%3E2015+and+H+and+rank+%3D+None+and+day+%3D+Friday+and+o%3Aats+streak%3C+-1+and+line%3E-13+and+month%3C4+and+line%3E-3+and+line%3C2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    Yale +2

    Nova PK

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season%3E2015+and+H+and+rank+%3D+None+and+day+%3D+Friday+and+o%3Aats+streak%3C+-1+and+line%3E-13+and+month%3C4+and+line%3E-3+and+line%3C2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    wolfeman3
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 4:20 AM ET #3

    GL Brotha! 

    The impossible only takes longer….
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    GL Brotha! 

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:24 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

    GL Brotha!

    an_cheers

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

    GL Brotha!

    an_cheers

     

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:28 AM ET #5

    OHIO U +3 

    look Kent St is a cover machine but this is a terrible line for them.  Ohio has only a little bit of difficulty handling them at home and this is the most points Ke St has ever laid at OHU!  

    why is this the highest line because ke st is on fire.  

    why do I like the home team and points? Because OHU is a top notch home team. 

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2010+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    OHIO U +3 

    look Kent St is a cover machine but this is a terrible line for them.  Ohio has only a little bit of difficulty handling them at home and this is the most points Ke St has ever laid at OHU!  

    why is this the highest line because ke st is on fire.  

    why do I like the home team and points? Because OHU is a top notch home team. 

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2010+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:29 AM ET #6

    OHU at home is 143-43 and can and will solve red hot Kest 

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    OHU at home is 143-43 and can and will solve red hot Kest 

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:30 AM ET #7

    Ohio U as a home dog since 2014 

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2014+and+HD+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    Ohio U as a home dog since 2014 

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2014+and+HD+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:31 AM ET #8

    Plays:

    Neb +15

    Nova pk 

    Yale+2

    Ohio U +3

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    Plays:

    Neb +15

    Nova pk 

    Yale+2

    Ohio U +3

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 5:59 AM ET #9

    27-18 is 60% Today I will add to get above 60 %an_light

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    27-18 is 60% Today I will add to get above 60 %an_light

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 6:01 AM ET #10

    Ohio U as a home dog? 7-2 no point and 8-1 with points as long as the line is less than 7 points 

     

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2014+and+HD+and+line%3C7&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    Ohio U as a home dog? 7-2 no point and 8-1 with points as long as the line is less than 7 points 

     

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DOHU++and+season%3E2014+and+HD+and+line%3C7&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 6:09 AM ET #11

    Yale +2 at Cornell

    Cornell covering machine this season but have ever been a favorite against Yale.  Yale is elite within conference play. 

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DYALE++and+o%3Ateam%3DCOR++and+A+and+season%3E2011&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     

    Yale in conference play 89-26 SU and 66-46 ATS :

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DYALE++and+C+and+season%3E2011+and+line%3C3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    Yale +2 at Cornell

    Cornell covering machine this season but have ever been a favorite against Yale.  Yale is elite within conference play. 

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DYALE++and+o%3Ateam%3DCOR++and+A+and+season%3E2011&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     

    Yale in conference play 89-26 SU and 66-46 ATS :

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DYALE++and+C+and+season%3E2011+and+line%3C3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    cincyquencher
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 6:27 AM ET #12

    Great info on OU thank you 

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    Great info on OU thank you 

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 6:33 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyquencher:

    Great info on OU thank you

     

    an_cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by cincyquencher:

    Great info on OU thank you

     

    an_cheers

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 6:42 AM ET #14

    lastly home dog ohio is 36-5 last 41 home games

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+OHU+and+H+and+date%3E20200201&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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    lastly home dog ohio is 36-5 last 41 home games

     

    https://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+OHU+and+H+and+date%3E20200201&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

     
    D-Town
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 7:21 AM ET #15

    clover

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    clover

     
    shakey12381
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 8:08 AM ET #16

    peace_5

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    peace_5

     
    Red_Stockings
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 8:53 AM ET #17

    @spottie2935

     

    I’d stay clear of Yale…lost their top two scorers from last year and are already showing kinks in the armor this year.  Losing to Columbia and Dartmouth (bottom feeders) in IVY play last week.  Cornell is the more balanced team and they’re not playing bad.  I honestly think this line is based on last years play.  Just my opinion.  BOL! clover

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    @spottie2935

     

    I’d stay clear of Yale…lost their top two scorers from last year and are already showing kinks in the armor this year.  Losing to Columbia and Dartmouth (bottom feeders) in IVY play last week.  Cornell is the more balanced team and they’re not playing bad.  I honestly think this line is based on last years play.  Just my opinion.  BOL! clover

     
    MB67
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 9:09 AM ET #18

    bol peace_5

    Like the plays 

    Claim to Fame - beating Bill Rodgers in a race.
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    bol peace_5

    Like the plays 

     
    i_Win_u_Lose
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 9:11 AM ET #19

    1 to 10 scale how confident are you in yale +2 ?  Looking to make a big bet on Yale, I see  Covers percentage have 75% on cornel and 25% on Yale.  an_cheers

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    1 to 10 scale how confident are you in yale +2 ?  Looking to make a big bet on Yale, I see  Covers percentage have 75% on cornel and 25% on Yale.  an_cheers

     
    Red_Stockings
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 10:17 AM ET #20

    @spottie2935

    Since I sent my Cornell comment, the line went from Cornell - 1.5 to Yale - 1.5…

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    @spottie2935

    Since I sent my Cornell comment, the line went from Cornell - 1.5 to Yale - 1.5…

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 10:35 AM ET #21

    Can you put the Nebraska one into english?

    I am confused it mentions Sunday and Thursday but it is Friday

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    Can you put the Nebraska one into english?

    I am confused it mentions Sunday and Thursday but it is Friday

     
    KeyMaster
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 10:54 AM ET #22

    I am all over Cornell. 

    clover

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    I am all over Cornell. 

    clover

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 11:14 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyMaster:

    I am all over Cornell.

     

    Yale may get me but  I will stick to my plan.  

     

    Best wishes youre killing itan_cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeyMaster:

    I am all over Cornell.

     

    Yale may get me but  I will stick to my plan.  

     

    Best wishes youre killing itan_cheers

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 11:20 AM ET #24

    Yale has lost 3 ATS covers and in those games the books have made those lines:

    -14.5 to Columbia lost the game

    -16.5 to Dart lost the game 

    -7 to Harvard won but didnt cover only scoring 58 points.

    Now after all these points they are an away dog and no one bets them.  I am riding my data.  The consensus isn't a concern. 

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    Yale has lost 3 ATS covers and in those games the books have made those lines:

    -14.5 to Columbia lost the game

    -16.5 to Dart lost the game 

    -7 to Harvard won but didnt cover only scoring 58 points.

    Now after all these points they are an away dog and no one bets them.  I am riding my data.  The consensus isn't a concern. 

     
     
    spottie2935
    spottie2935
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2001
    Posts: 23161
    Posted: Jan. 13, 2023 - 11:42 AM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:

    Can you put the Nebraska one into english? I am confused it mentions Sunday and Thursday but it is Friday

     

    season > 2015 and HF and rank<14 and o:ats streak<-1 and day!= Thursday and day != Sunday and o:wins<15 and o:wins>7 and month=1 and line<-5

     

    ! exclamation point means not !  ex:

    Day of game not Thursday and day of game not Sunday.

     

    My data loves to fade ranked teams in January because their is still time for these ranked teams to lose.  By March these losses add up and the rankings are more clear.  That doesn't mean I am predicting Neb +15 to win, but the data is saying its not a good spot or a top ranked team.  Why do they play on Fridays ?  They do terribly ATS. Maybe since its such a rarity it might mess up their schedules.  Hard to really understand it, but it works. 

     

    In this case the data for teams ranked 1 thru 13 are 6-24 ATS

     

    If I move this to the top 5 ranked teams its 5-8 ATS since 2013.

     

    I didnt filter it this tight because the less games the more volatile the outcome. 

     

    I filtered this further to benefit the dog here.  Again the data is so limited its much more volatile. 

     

    A lot of other people that trust the SDQL rely on hundreds of results so I am even way off of those guys.  

     

    My ways are trying to balance a shorter list with about 65%-70% winning results.  The others are betting 100's of data results with a win % from 55% to 60%.

     

    I made a few mistakes so far taking the higher consensus dogs.  Going forward I should eliminate these games. 

     

    Spottie2935 on socials
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    Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:

    Can you put the Nebraska one into english? I am confused it mentions Sunday and Thursday but it is Friday

     

    season > 2015 and HF and rank<14 and o:ats streak<-1 and day!= Thursday and day != Sunday and o:wins<15 and o:wins>7 and month=1 and line<-5

     

    ! exclamation point means not !  ex:

    Day of game not Thursday and day of game not Sunday.

     

    My data loves to fade ranked teams in January because their is still time for these ranked teams to lose.  By March these losses add up and the rankings are more clear.  That doesn't mean I am predicting Neb +15 to win, but the data is saying its not a good spot or a top ranked team.  Why do they play on Fridays ?  They do terribly ATS. Maybe since its such a rarity it might mess up their schedules.  Hard to really understand it, but it works. 

     

    In this case the data for teams ranked 1 thru 13 are 6-24 ATS

     

    If I move this to the top 5 ranked teams its 5-8 ATS since 2013.

     

    I didnt filter it this tight because the less games the more volatile the outcome. 

     

    I filtered this further to benefit the dog here.  Again the data is so limited its much more volatile. 

     

    A lot of other people that trust the SDQL rely on hundreds of results so I am even way off of those guys.  

     

    My ways are trying to balance a shorter list with about 65%-70% winning results.  The others are betting 100's of data results with a win % from 55% to 60%.

     

    I made a few mistakes so far taking the higher consensus dogs.  Going forward I should eliminate these games. 

     

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