Curious about your thinking on the Northwestern game. I'm definitely leaning NW +7 but was also leaning the over but I'm not quite as sure there's value in the total. Two efficient offenses that are mediocre on defense.
What we have here are 2 excellent 3 point shooting teams as the Wildcats average 9.27 per game and Creighton averages 9 per game. They are also 2 teams that shoot many from behind the arc as well as the Wildcats shot 26 per game and the Bluejays shot 20.7 per game. Most of the success for these 2 teams have come against lessor opponents and although the Bluejays are 5-0su at home so far this year, here is their opponents below followed by defensive rank...
No.Carolina A&T (97-65)w (ranked 315th defense)
Chicago St (95-61)w (ranked 344th defense)
Campbell (104-81)w (ranked 291 defense)
Nebraska (76-66)w (ranked 64th defense)
Houston Baptist (97-62)w (ranked 340 defense)
So right there it's easy to notice how Creighton scoring drastically falls against tougher opponents as it did against Nebraska. With Northwestern coming into this game allowing just 63.4ppg (ranked 100th) and just 30.2% from 3 point range (ranked 64th) on defense, i like my chances here with the points and the under in what seems to be a much inflated number....
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Quote Originally Posted by Heelhoopz:
Curious about your thinking on the Northwestern game. I'm definitely leaning NW +7 but was also leaning the over but I'm not quite as sure there's value in the total. Two efficient offenses that are mediocre on defense.
What we have here are 2 excellent 3 point shooting teams as the Wildcats average 9.27 per game and Creighton averages 9 per game. They are also 2 teams that shoot many from behind the arc as well as the Wildcats shot 26 per game and the Bluejays shot 20.7 per game. Most of the success for these 2 teams have come against lessor opponents and although the Bluejays are 5-0su at home so far this year, here is their opponents below followed by defensive rank...
No.Carolina A&T (97-65)w (ranked 315th defense)
Chicago St (95-61)w (ranked 344th defense)
Campbell (104-81)w (ranked 291 defense)
Nebraska (76-66)w (ranked 64th defense)
Houston Baptist (97-62)w (ranked 340 defense)
So right there it's easy to notice how Creighton scoring drastically falls against tougher opponents as it did against Nebraska. With Northwestern coming into this game allowing just 63.4ppg (ranked 100th) and just 30.2% from 3 point range (ranked 64th) on defense, i like my chances here with the points and the under in what seems to be a much inflated number....
Kentucky 2nd half -10 for 10 units... Now we have some good value. After Loyola just poured their hearts out in that 1st half, they know have 5 players with 2 fouls and 1 player with 3 fouls. I'm watching this game closely and if the shots start falling for UK they can still win this game by 20. Loyola is in foul trouble because they are outmatched all over the court when on defense...
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Adding:
Kentucky 2nd half -10 for 10 units... Now we have some good value. After Loyola just poured their hearts out in that 1st half, they know have 5 players with 2 fouls and 1 player with 3 fouls. I'm watching this game closely and if the shots start falling for UK they can still win this game by 20. Loyola is in foul trouble because they are outmatched all over the court when on defense...
5 of the Hoyas wins have come against teams with losing records...
Howard 3-9su
New Jersey Tech 4-5su
IUPUI 5-8su
NC-Greensboro 2-10su
Savannah St 4-8su
1 of their win's was against Chaminade in the Maui Invite in Hawaii. While their 2 lone wins against D-1 teams with winning records were American U Eagles & an a 3 point overtime win over Memphis earlier this year also in the Maui Invite in Hawaii. All 4 of the Tiger's losses came against teams with winning records...
Michigan 9-2su
Murray St 13-0 su
Louisville 11-0su
Georgetown 9-1su
So a little revenge plus the fact that Memphis won't be dog's in many games this year as they have already been the favs to win 70% of their games up to this point. Catching them in the role the dog is valued in my eyes. Especially since my feelings are not that high on Georgetown in relation to their schedule of wins....
Very sound reasoning; I like it.
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
5 of the Hoyas wins have come against teams with losing records...
Howard 3-9su
New Jersey Tech 4-5su
IUPUI 5-8su
NC-Greensboro 2-10su
Savannah St 4-8su
1 of their win's was against Chaminade in the Maui Invite in Hawaii. While their 2 lone wins against D-1 teams with winning records were American U Eagles & an a 3 point overtime win over Memphis earlier this year also in the Maui Invite in Hawaii. All 4 of the Tiger's losses came against teams with winning records...
Michigan 9-2su
Murray St 13-0 su
Louisville 11-0su
Georgetown 9-1su
So a little revenge plus the fact that Memphis won't be dog's in many games this year as they have already been the favs to win 70% of their games up to this point. Catching them in the role the dog is valued in my eyes. Especially since my feelings are not that high on Georgetown in relation to their schedule of wins....
Dislocated finger's are tough to figure out IMO. Iv'e done it before and once you have done it once it bother's you for years beyond. I'm sure he should be back within in the next few games though...
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Quote Originally Posted by cjay12:
How long is Terrence Jones going to be out for?
Dislocated finger's are tough to figure out IMO. Iv'e done it before and once you have done it once it bother's you for years beyond. I'm sure he should be back within in the next few games though...
Thanks Odds. After looking at the NW/Creighton line a bit more I'm going to stay away from the total. I think it's pretty close either way.
Any thoughts on the LSU/North Texas Line. LSU opened as at -7 and it has quickly been bet down to -3.5...-3 at a lot of places. I think LSU holds value at -3, however a 4 point swing makes me think something is afoot. I know you're not in to line movement...
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Thanks Odds. After looking at the NW/Creighton line a bit more I'm going to stay away from the total. I think it's pretty close either way.
Any thoughts on the LSU/North Texas Line. LSU opened as at -7 and it has quickly been bet down to -3.5...-3 at a lot of places. I think LSU holds value at -3, however a 4 point swing makes me think something is afoot. I know you're not in to line movement...
Odds~I took Elon at +16.5 as well...curious as to what your thoughts are on this game
Anytime a team this early in the season who is 5-2ats going up against an opponent who is 6-6ats, they are going to get a look from me. To add on to things I am just not a big fan of San Diego st this year. San Diego St is 2-3ats this season as double digit point favs. I think it's rather alarming that the books are going to continue making the Aztecs big favorites this season as they have lost their 4 top scorers from last years 34 win team. It seems as if the books have no choice but to continue to give the betting public big numbers on Aztec games. I am a believer that this will only benefit Aztec faders in the long run...
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Quote Originally Posted by strbanchor:
Odds~I took Elon at +16.5 as well...curious as to what your thoughts are on this game
Anytime a team this early in the season who is 5-2ats going up against an opponent who is 6-6ats, they are going to get a look from me. To add on to things I am just not a big fan of San Diego st this year. San Diego St is 2-3ats this season as double digit point favs. I think it's rather alarming that the books are going to continue making the Aztecs big favorites this season as they have lost their 4 top scorers from last years 34 win team. It seems as if the books have no choice but to continue to give the betting public big numbers on Aztec games. I am a believer that this will only benefit Aztec faders in the long run...
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