Last writeup result: Kansas bad beat loser by 1 point after being up by 20.
Today:
Texas Tech has had such a great year. It couldve been even better had they not had to deal with all the injuries to all their vets in Smith, Gray and Evans. Couldve been a BIG 12 championship year had they not had to deal with that. With that said though it has allowed some of the younger guys to develop and be able to contribute during the tourney. Texas Tech right now is playing the best basketball they have played all year. The Red Raiders gets it done with a ferocious pack line defense. Swarming opponents to shooting at a low effective FG% of 46.6% while forcing a boat load of turnovers. Offensively Texas Tech relies on Keenan Evans to create offense and boy does he ever. Tech hits shots with a good effective FG% of 52.4% however they are awesome at creating 2nd chance opportunities on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line. This combination is very effective which leads to more opportunities to score.
Villanova what can I say?! They are incredible offensively!! They usually take great care of the basketball while hitting shots with a nations best effective FG% of about 60%!!! That is unreal! They do the majority of their damage from beyond the arc jacking it up 47% of the time where they hit them at 40.5%! Positions 1-5 can hit 3's. They are a nightmare for most teams. Defensively Nova does a great job of defending the perimeter holding opponents to 32% while staying disciplined and avoiding fouls. Everywhere else defensively Nova is average and can be particularily weak inside at times. However, when you have an awesome offense like that average defense is excellent defense.
The Matchup
Texas Tech like I said earlier is peaking at the right time. They are long, deep, relentless and battle tested having gone through the gauntlet of a schedule in the Big 12. This will be the toughest defensive opponent Villanova will face all year folks as Tech can defend the perimeter 1-5. Yes Nova will hit some shots, its inevitable but I truly expect the Red Raiders to make Villanova very uncomfortable with constant pressure while forcing contested 3's from beyond the arc. By the end of the game this will be tiring. On the offensive end for Texas Tech they will be able to get inside just enough against Nova's weaker interior defense and when they dont hit their close range shots expect a guy to be on the offensive glass to get a put back lay up or get fouled in the process. Texas Tech gets an offensive rebound 33% of the time. Due to these factors this game will be much closer than the linesmakers suggest. I believe this will be at most a 1 possesion game due to the matchups. Villanova will have their hands full for sure. I'm not saying they will not win but 6.5 is wayyyy too much. Therefore I'm on Texas Tech plus the points.
Texas Tech +6.5
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