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Currently Back Testing A New System

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Posted: #401
So if I do my math right, you are 61-15-4 on the 3 team teasers. So you bet a total of 80 games but they have to be paired together in 3's.  That is a total of 26 bets and you lost 15 of them so your 3 team teaser record is actually 11-15. 
 
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Posted: #402
Quote Originally Posted by westy9854:

So if I do my math right, you are 61-15-4 on the 3 team teasers. So you bet a total of 80 games but they have to be paired together in 3's.  That is a total of 26 bets and you lost 15 of them so your 3 team teaser record is actually 11-15. 

Not exactly...
You see, the system does not always produce 3 selections on any given day.  Some days, it may have only 1 or 2 selections...some days no selections.  On the days it has only 1 or 2, you have to find others to slot in there which I have worked on providing with the other system.

Also, there were a couple of times that 2 losers appeared in one teaser, which would eat an extra loser and remove it from being in another teaser.

And, we had one day where the system went 10-0...another day it went 14-1.  On those days it was pretty hard to lose.

So its not exactly like you are thinking.

Hope this helps.

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Posted: #403
Quote Originally Posted by AppleMunch25:

where did you get the fairfield number????

That line represents the game line of Niagara -4.5 with a 7 point teaser added to it to play Fairfield +11.5.
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Posted: #404
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


That line represents the game line of Niagara -4.5 with a 7 point teaser added to it to play Fairfield +11.5.

Niagara was never -4.5 EVER, you telling us a BS line man. Fairfield was the line that was -4.5 so there for teasing them would result in a +2.5 line. Go check the covers odds page.  
 
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Posted: #405
Quote Originally Posted by westy9854:

So if I do my math right, you are 61-15-4 on the 3 team teasers. So you bet a total of 80 games but they have to be paired together in 3's.  That is a total of 26 bets and you lost 15 of them so your 3 team teaser record is actually 11-15. 

 He's teasers are probably at .500 they haven't done too hot lately, but he was hitting them better when he first started.
 
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Posted: #406
A very interesting day indeed...2-19-15...

MS1  4-0..........Overall 65-15-4

Pacific +25.5...................winner by cover 74-86
Fairfield +11.5..................winner by cover 53-55
Nebraska Omaha +9.5.......winner by cover 78-81
UC Riverside.....................outright winner 64-62

The teaser selection won.

Pacific, Riverside and Fairfield ......... +2 units.

The Money Line Parlay won.  I have been neglecting to put down the ML parlay record so starting tonight it is 2-1 over the last 3 days.

Milwaukee and IPFW..........winner...1 unit to win 3.67 units.

The SGS1 results were not good on paper, however, I learned something from them tonight that might prove beneficial moving forward.  I would much rather have a really bad or really good result as a 50/50 result doesn't help at all.

SGS1   1-8...........overall 51-54-3

Texas St. +5.5.......................loser
IPFW +4.............................. winner
Santa Clara +6.5....................loser
San Diego +11.5....................loser
Northern Colorado +5..............loser
Southern Mississippi +15.5.....loser
Mercer +3.5...........................loser
UNC Greensboro +11.5...........loser
SE Missouri +1......................loser

Basically, I am going to flip the modifier that created this 1-8 and use it exactly opposite of what I did tonight.  If it continues to create this kind of record, we will have a modification that can produce 8-1 numbers which will be a good thing to add into the mix.  When you get a strong result like this...win or loss, its worth testing it out much further.

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Posted: #407
Quote Originally Posted by AppleMunch25:


Niagara was never -4.5 EVER, you telling us a BS line man. Fairfield was the line that was -4.5 so there for teasing them would result in a +2.5 line. Go check the covers odds page.  

Thanks for catching that mistake.  Got to admit, I blew it on that one. Totally looked at the line for the game wrong.  Fortunately, it doesn't change the result of the game as Fairfield +2.5 still covers as Fairfield lost by 2 points.

Now, that being said...if you have read my thread for some time you would know that I am not about BSing anyone.  I am about getting it right and figuring out how to make money.  There is no benefit gained by getting a line wrong for me.  I simply want to find out what works and what wins the cash.

I look at and type hundred of pieces of information every day. Mistakes will be made.  

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Posted: #408
No need to defend Smack... most of us know you're trying to win and share that info.  I noticed something about the SGS1 picks that most of them were road dogs which made me wary of a lot on that list.
 
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Posted: #409
Everyone keep the negativity out of this thread

Thanks once again Smack
 
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Posted: #410
Small slate of games today so getting these in early.

MS1.......Overall 65-14-4

Brown +9.5

SGS1........Overall 51-54-3

Harvard -16
Iona -8.5

7 point teaser

Brown +9.5
Harvard -9
Iona -1.5

Money Line Parlay ......2-1

Brown
Princeton

1 unit to win 3.62 units.

Good luck!

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Posted: #411
BOL
 
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Posted: #412
KRAL..............

I went back through the thread to gather up the posted teaser record. There were several teasers that had fill in games for the days when the MS1 did not produce at least 3 selections but the overall record stands at 16-10 or 61.5%.  

Not good enough for me. 

Back to the grind...

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Posted: #413
Tough night , we will win one of these days. Keep up the great work. Do you pick anything else then college bball
 
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Posted: #414
Ok, MS1 plays are ready...

UC Riverside +8.5
San Jose St. +30.5
Houston +14.5
Fairfield +11
Youngstown St. +8
Samford +10
Western Illinois +11
UC Fullerton +13.5

My favorite teaser of these is...

San Jose St.
Youngstown St
Houston 



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Posted: #415
SGS1 selections are up!

Breaking these up into 2 sections today.

Top Plays

Georgia St. -16.5
Murray St. -19
Northern Iowa -16
Wofford -16.5

Regular Plays

Utah St. -5.5
Arizona -14
Gonzaga -6.5
Pepperdine -2.5
UC Irvine -11.5
UC Davis -4.5
Western Michigan -1.5
Towson PK
Kent St. -1
South Carolina -1.5
Central Michigan -11.5
North Carolina St. -13
Chattanooga -6
FIU -1.5
Davidson -15
Yale -6.5
Harvard -9.5
James Madison -6
Georgia Southern -10
Mississippi -7.5
South Dakota St. -9.5
Georgetown -14.5
UT Arlington -2

This group has the modifier that would have produced an 8-1 result if I had used it two days ago.  This will be the first big test of this new tweak.  Obviously, it is designed to pick out home favorite selections...and there are a ton of those on the board today so it picked a ton of games.

The top plays are separated out by another modifier that I just found last night that was back testing at around 80% winner.  Wanted to see what that group looked like separately.

Disclaimer as usual...the SGS1 is a work in progress.  I am putting it out there for informational purposes only at this point.  If you choose to play it, I recommend teasing it for protection.

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Posted: #416
Teaser selections for the day...already have this one in the books

San Jose St. +30.5
Youngstown St. +8
Houston +14.5

Adding this one...

UC Riverside +8.5
Fairfield +11
UC Fullerton +13.5

Both for 2 units each.

Money Line Parlays coming up next.

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Posted: #417
Got a decent list of teams to choose from for the ML Parlay today.

Florida
Buffalo
Penn St.
Eastern Washington
Arkansas Little Rock
Cornell

All of these are solid, my selection is 

Buffalo
Eastern Washington

Playing it for 1 unit but having trouble getting my book up.  Should have the return number on it later.

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Posted: #418
Buffalo
Eastern Washington

100 to win 260 on the money line parlay.

Good luck today!

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Posted: #419
Finally have the record update together.  All numbers are before today's action.

MS1 .........65-16-4

SGS1..........52-55-3

4 point teasers.........57-18-4

Money Line Parlays........2-2

Teaser Selections..........16-11

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Posted: #420
Well, that was nice to go 4-0 on the SGS1 top plays..

Georgia St. -16.5............winner 54-89
Murray St. -19................winner 54-89
Northern Iowa -16............winner 39-56
Wofford -16.5..................winner 52-78


Money Line parlay lost though.... -1 unit.

Buffalo ...winner
Eastern Washington....loser

More games to go!

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Posted: #421
Ouch Teasers aren't looking too hot today, ML parlay, got screwed near the end.
 
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Posted: #422
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Well, that was nice to go 4-0 on the SGS1 top plays..

Georgia St. -16.5............winner 54-89
Murray St. -19................winner 54-89
Northern Iowa -16............winner 39-56
Wofford -16.5..................winner 52-78


Money Line parlay lost though.... -1 unit.

Buffalo ...winner
Eastern Washington....loser

More games to go!


good hits on those tho.
 
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Posted: #423
Ok, summary for Saturday 2-21-15.

Very disappointing results for the MS1 as I don't remember it ever having 3 losses on any one day ever.

MS1.......5-3..........Overall 70-20-4

UC Riverside +8.5............outright winner 48-44
San Jose St. +30.5...........cover winner 56-74
Houston +14.5...................cover winner 53-63
Fairchild +11......................outright winner 57-43
Youngstown St. +8.............loser 70-83
Samford +10.......................cover winner 61-62
West Illinois +11.................loser 46-59
UC Fullerton +13.5..............loser 54-69

Both teasers lost going 0-4 and -4.6 units.

The SGS1 was a mixed bag as well with the bright spot the 4-0 performance of the top picks.  All other picks went 10-12.

Western Michigan -1.5..................loser 87-97
Towson PK..................................loser 69-73
Kent. St. -1..................................winner 64-51
South Carolina -1.5.......................loser 52-62
Central Michigan -11.5..................winner 83-60
Chattanooga -6.............................winner 67-59
FIU -1.5........................................loser 56-70
Davidson -15................................winner 76-57
Harvard -9.5.................................winner 63-55
Yale -6.5......................................loser 50-56
Georgia Southern -10....................loser 80-74
Mississippi -7.5............................loser 59-57
Georgetown -14.5.........................loser 68-63
UT Arlington -2.............................loser 70-81
South Dakota St. -9.5...................winner 81-52
Utah St.-5.5.................................winner 85-79
Arizona -14..................................loser 57-47
Gonzaga -6..................................winner 70-60
Pepperdine -2.5............................loser 54-56
UC Irvine -11.5..............................loser 67-58
UC Davis -4.5...............................winner 74-67
North Carolina St. -13....................winner 69-53

Combining top picks and regular picks the SGS1 went 13-13. Overall SGS1 now 65-68-3.

Will be looking over these results carefully, especially the top picks modifier that produced the 4-0.


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Prospect
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Posted: #424
We appreciate all the hard work we will one of these days
 
 
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Posted: #425
system prolly evening out now. it happens with these i know bcuz i try a lot of them myself. gl
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