Drexel +9 (1.1 to win 1) - I've had my eye on this game for weeks, and at 9 i've got a number i'm comfortable playing. I've got Drexel as the best team in the CAA and a fringe tournament team this year. The strength of this Drexel is their big guards. The Dragons return 6'4'' Frantz Massenat, 6'6'' Damion Lee, and perhaps most importantly 6'2'' Chris Fouch. Fouch only played 3 games last year before going down to injury, and that really hurt them. Fouch is the blood and guts of this team, I can't overstate how big his return is for them. Combining with Lee and Massenat they've got a guard trio that most teams from power conferences would love to have. The loss of Daryl McCoy could hurt them a bit on the glass though. McCoy was a warrior down there, and 6'10" Goron Pantovic is really going to have to pick it up on the boards as he'll see a big bump in his minutes this season. On the UCLA side gone are the talented Shabazz Mohammed and PG Larry Drew III. Also out for tonight is big man Travis Wear. Led by Anderson, Adams and Powell there is still some nice talent on this UCLA squad, but I feel Drexel is gritty, gutty, and experienced enough to hang around with them tonight.
Florida International +5 (1.1 to win 1) - Richard Pitino is out at FIU having moved on to Minnesota and in is Anthony Evans from Norfolk State. I'm a fan of Evans and I really was impressed by what he was able to do at Norfolk. This should be a nice move for him and the program. Evans was known for having Norfolk play at a pretty fast tempo, which will mesh well with what Pitino was doing with them last year. Frink and Murphy return and should lead the way this year for FIU. Both are athletic wing men at 6'6" and 6'5" respectively. Each are coming off nice seasons and I expect to take nice steps forward this year. EKU is a solid team, and outside of Belmont probably the best team in the OVC. That said 5 just feels like too many here. I really expect FIU to hang and maybe win outright.
Davidson +16 (1.1 to win 1) - Davidson has won 51 games over the past 2 seasons and this year things should be no different. You should expect another 24 or 25 wins, and another NCAA Tournament appearance. What McKillop has done with that program truly is impressive and despite losing some key players from last years team he'll have them ready to go again. Davidson has played in enough big games over the years that a trip to Cameron to take on Duke shouldn't phase them. Sure they'll be the less talented team, but they'll go in there, execute their offense and play smart. I see this game staying within 10 points.
Utah State -8.5 (1.1 to win 1) - Put me in the camp that doesn't think this Andy Enfield hiring at USC is going to work out. The guy had one nice season and obviously the well documented Cinderella run in the big dance last year, and now he's ready to coach at USC? I don't buy it. Yeah he went from a little known school, to a very well known one, but he left the more talented roster to behind to inherit a pretty mediocre Trojans squad. They'll be in for a rude awakening tonight as I fully expect Utah State to beat up on them by double digits. Utah State has one of the best yet little known home crowds in the nation. They play that snail slow tempo, but will just out execute the hell out of you on the offensive end. I expect them to frustrate USC all night. Morrill has been there so long they could run that offense in their sleep. USC on the other end will have their first game with Enfields new up tempo style. Trying to implement a new system in a place as hostile as Utah State, against a team as well coached and disciplined as they are should be a very tough task. I don't USC is up to it.
San Diego -4 (1.1 to win 1) - I'm going with the no Nate Wolters affect for South Dakota State here. Wolters is probably the best player that program has ever had, and in his 4 years there he took them to levels they likely never thought they'd reach. Wolters is in the NBA now, and for Scott Nagy and company playing without him will have to feel like a bad dream. Simply put Wolters was the best player on the court just about every time the Jack Rabbits took the floor. That luxury is gone now, and when a player like that leaves a program like South Dakota State it's a major adjustment. This isn't a Kentucky or Kansas where you lose a guy to the NBA, shake it off and plug in another future NBA guy to replace him. Wolters is a once every 30 years guy for SDSU, and life without him just won't be the same. Removing him from the equation makes USD the more talented team here. Bill Grier is slowly building this team back to the level he had them in 2008 when they won 22 games and beat U Conn in round one of the big dance. I think on their home floor they take care of business to start the season tonight.
Wisconsin -4 (1.1 to win 1) - I think Wisconsin is a fringe top 10 team in the country and in my mind this line should be 5.5 or 6. As the season goes on you'll hear me talk more and more about efficiency. Offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and things that go along with it. I won't get too bogged down in that now, except to say Wisconsin is a very efficient team and under Bo Ryan always has been. With Brust, Gasser, Dekker, and Kaminsky they'll have as efficient a top 4 offensively as you'll see just about anywhere in the country. I'm not going to sell St. Johns short, I see them as a tournament team this year and have them roughly top 40 in the country. They might even have more raw talent than Wisconsin does, what they don't have is the execution. Wisconsin is the smarter, more disciplined, better coached, and more experienced squad. Will gladly back them and lay the short number.
Good luck guys. Comments and opinions are welcomed whether you agree with my plays or not, still welcome a little discussion.