December Hoops

12/2 Conference Notes: Youngstown State (#10) travels to Wisky MKE (#6) for Horizon conference action. I would say coming in that at 3-4, Wisky MKE has played some solid ball. They’ve had some good wins and played some other competition pretty tough. Youngstown State is 4-1, but their strength of schedule is near the bottom in all the country. Youngstown was supposed to get the services of Brogdon back after missing last year due to injury but a slow start to the year slowed his playing time and he has since left the program. Milwaukee really has a sound starting five, have developed some chemistry around the seniors, and may be a surprise to some down the stretch. Cleveland State (#2) will still be without the services of D’Aundray Brown, who I noted as the defensive and energy catalyst of Cleveland State, as they travel to Wisconsin Green Bay (#7). Cleveland State returns everyone (but Brown of course) that looks for revenge in its first Horizon tilt of the year. WGB won this home game last year by a score of 74-57, but used a second half run of 22-2 to accomplish the feat. CSU held a halftime advantage and a lead at the 12 minute mark before the run started. Gone from that GB team are all of its interior offense and defense, and they are extremely young down low. They have some good guards, but the length of Cleveland State should be a major factor. WGB is going to focus on more guard play this year and without a post presence with any experience down low. Cleveland State is a team that will take full advantage of that. Furthermore, CSU and all of it’s returning players and physical presence will be going into Green Bay, which will be game #1 in a conference setting for 31 year old head coach Brian Wardle. Valpo (#5) at UIC (#9). I was hoping to play Rider (#5) at Manhattan (#8) after a couple bad losses from Rider, but the chalk is too much. I will take a chance on St. Peter’s (#4) catching the points on the road in the MEAC at Loyola MD (#9). Loyola will focus on scoring from its returning backcourt but that is the same backcourt that was benched at times last year due to horrible shot selection. You can’t shoot bad shots against St. Peter’s defense as I have mentioned in the past. Loyola MD has an inside presence on defense, but very little offense to show down low. St. Peter’s was one of the best defensive squads in the country last year and that looks like it will continue this year with a  greater majority returning from that squad last year. They were horrendous on offense last year, but that will likely change when they get the familiarity of playing in-conference opponents. Just to give you an idea of how well St. Peter’s defends, St. Peter’s won both of these meetings last year shooting a combined 35% from the field. Loyola MD hasn’t played anybody worth mentioning and the top two defenses they played on the year (who came in at #76 and #116), they lost both outright. St. Peter’s brings a top 50 defense, and returns an entire roster in which shut them down last year. St. Peter’s is 2-4 on the year, but they’ve played a #57 strength of schedule and you can’t expect victories at Seton Hall, Long Beach State, or Old Dominion. They did beat Alabama, and they did lose to Robert Morris, but Robert Morris is no slouch and they never have been (they’ve played everyone on their schedule tough, including Pitt). In a low scoring affair, the point should be at a premium in this matchup. Appalachian State goes to Chattanooga where points will be scored. Chattanooga has always taken the approach of bringing in 2 year commitments from juco or other schools, so they will always look to get the tempo up and put the ball in the bucket with very little emphasis on defense. Western Carolina goes to Samford in which the total could very well stay under 100 if WCU continues to shoot horrendously from the three-point line. Samford with slight revenge, but they’re awful. Samford runs the Princeton offense, but WCU has not struggled with it the past few years and Samford has some youth running it this year. I would lean WCU but Samford has had a few games to watch WCU play while Samford prepped. Wofford should get its season turned around now that they start conference play. I actually value Davidson (#3) over COC (#5). Charleston’s strengths are its outside shooting where Davidson excels at shutting down, and Charleston’s weakness is it’s rebounding where Davidson also excels. Charleston really has no balance offensively, and it will hurt them this year in conference play I believe. Coaches like McKillop will seize the opportunity to allow Goudelock to get his points while trying to shut down everyone else as that is the approach that he has always taken. I will probably only lean to Davidson here as they are pretty young, but the points could come in handy. No interest in the Ohio Valley Conference matchups as a majority of those are upper halves versus lower halves. I will take a look at Eastern Illinois (#3) and Tennessee State (#8). Tennessee State has yet to beat a division one school, but they have played to a #50 strength of schedule. EIU has one win, but they have played a top 20 strength of schedule. Tennessee State was a team that brought in a new coach last year and focused more on defensive principles, which presented its team with an extreme lack of offense. Now, they have lost over half of their returners from last year including some key reserves so they are in rebuilding mode. Everything Cooper taught last year will have to be re-taught this year and I expect the fallout of that to be a decrease in defense while seeing the offense stay right where it’s at. Eastern Illinois lost quite a bit of seniors, but the two main ingredients are back to set the table as they bring back one of the best backcourts in the OVC, including PG Jeremy Granger. Coach Mike Miller was criticized for playing so many players last year through the conference season, sometimes playing up to 12 players and nobody could understand why he played so many people, especially in the conference portion of his schedule. This led to very little chemistry last year and a high number of turnovers. My guess? He was getting the experience for the young guys on this team. And if they project at one of the top three teams in the conference this year which is where I have them pegged, it will look like a fantastic move in hindsight. Eastern was an 8 point favorite last year at home against TST, and now with TST losing some meaningful minutes and half their roster, there is some value on laying the points. No value in the Summit either...

GL

I wouldn't call anything safe, especially risking 2/1 ML on the road in any conference, but I do like them to win. Don't like a head coach on the road for a first conference game, but Capel's been around the program long enough to know what he's getting into.

If it were me - personally, i'd look for a safer play on a team playing on it's own court if I'm going to lay that much.

GL

Eastern's program had been going through turmoil a great majority of those last ten matchups with players being suspended and leaving. Biggest one that comes to mind was Romain Martin, who I believe quit the team as a senior last year or the year before. South Dakota State's 6-0 with a win over Iowa. I won't claim EIU as a world-beater, but they will be better at home than on the road, much better as evidenced in the home/away with South Dakota State. All the teams you mentioned and Eastern's entire schedule has come against teams that are at least a full 150 spots better than Tennessee State (according to kenpom). I think it's safe to say those road losses against bigger conference squads (outside of SDST) don't really show us what this team is capable of in the lowly OVC.