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Duq vs Richmond fishy line

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
75% of public are on Duquesne and the line went from -3 down to -2. Why?
 
MVP
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Posted: #2
no idea at all...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3

I am totally suspicious seems way to easy a bet. I think I am going to give up the 2. 

 
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Posted: #4
I jumped on Duquesne before I saw how many people were on them. Now I'm a little suspicious of it. I hate seeing a line go in favor of who the public has. It doesn't make sense to me 
 
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Posted: #5
75% of Covers consensus is on Duquesne, not public. The public money is what drove this line down. The "real" bets in other words.
 
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Posted: #6
I wasn't basing off of covers I was using sportsline from vegas
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

I wasn't basing off of covers I was using sportsline from vegas

80% of public money is currently on Duq. Either take Richmond or stay away. This line opened at -4 last night. 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

75% of public are on Duquesne and the line went from -3 down to -2. Why?

Books don't catagorize bettors and report who bets on what-  so your "75% of public" contention is ridiculous.

The line move is the only true indication of which team is getting more action..

 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:


Books don't catagorize bettors and report who bets on what-  so your "75% of public" contention is ridiculous.

The line move is the only true indication of which team is getting more action..

 

So you're saying the line dropped 2 points because Richmond is getting pounded? lol
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


80% of public money is currently on Duq. Either take Richmond or stay away. This line opened at -4 last night. 

Thats an absurd way to handicap a game- 


 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


So you're saying the line dropped 2 points because Richmond is getting pounded? lol

Yes...Thats a real number- Why, who knows- It might be one wealthy idiot playing a hunch? I bet the best team
 
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Posted: #12
Can someone show me where a site has the public baclkng Richmond then please? Instead of saying I'm wrong or ridiculous, show me where it says that cause I'm on my seeing the public on Duquesne heavily. It was a question
 
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Posted: #13
So you're saying a higher percentage of ppl took Duquesne and a higher amount of money is on Richmond? That would make more sense
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

So you're saying a higher percentage of ppl took Duquesne and a higher amount of money is on Richmond? That would make more sense

I didn't look at the line history, but I bet it at -2 cause I think it should be -6..   If it moved from -3 to -2 more money is coming in on Richmond and they dropped the number to attract equal money on Duquesne..   Why it only started out @-3 ? I don't know- Books don't handicap games, they handicap the betting publics perception of teams and people don't respect Duquesne. 

I think-
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:


I didn't look at the line history, but I bet it at -2 cause I think it should be -6..   If it moved from -3 to -2 more money is coming in on Richmond and they dropped the number to attract equal money on Duquesne..   Why it only started out @-3 ? I don't know- Books don't handicap games, they handicap the betting publics perception of teams and people don't respect Duquesne. 

I think-

People don't respect Duquesne? BOL on your play.
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Tjtorok11: 75% of public are on Duquesne and the line went from -3 down to -2. Why? Books don't catagorize bettors and report who bets on what-  so your "75% of public" contention is ridiculous.The line move is the only true indication of which team is getting more action..

This is correct. The %'s you see on SBR, VegasInsider, et al are based on the NUMBER of bets placed, not the dollar amount. Money moves lines, period.

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:


I didn't look at the line history, but I bet it at -2 cause I think it should be -6..   If it moved from -3 to -2 more money is coming in on Richmond and they dropped the number to attract equal money on Duquesne..   Why it only started out @-3 ? I don't know- Books don't handicap games, they handicap the betting publics perception of teams and people don't respect Duquesne. 

I think-

My perception is Duquesne is a good team and their record reflects that. Just look at their 2 records. There is no logical reason for Richmond to be taking more money whether it's total amount wagered or percentage of public. The perception isn't Oh Hey Look Richmond is playing Duq on the road, so lets hammer Richmond! I can give you a handful of examples of this same situation over the past week. 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Tjtorok11:

Can someone show me where a site has the public baclkng Richmond then please? Instead of saying I'm wrong or ridiculous, show me where it says that cause I'm on my seeing the public on Duquesne heavily. It was a question


When a book takes a bet, they don't record itas a "public" or "sharp" bet and report that information to anybody?

So that number is fictitious and shouldn't be considered- 


and I've seen guys that have been betting everyday for 50 years getting out handicapped by guys that did'nt know what a point spread was last week- So....Unless somebody knows something nobody else does, your opinion should be the only one that matters to you


 
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Posted: #19
I believe TV exposure guarantees Vegas knowledge to help set the line. The lack of TV coverage on some of the smaller conferences, I believe, makes it just a tiny bit harder to set a line that  does not move , as in larger conferences , read  ACC, SEC, Big 12, PAC 10 Big 10.  I think the chance of getting a line a little off is greater w/smaller conferences, but that's just my opinion. I remember back in the day only major conferences were on the board, and not all of the games at that. My uncle was a professional gambler, and he  told me Vegas was afraid of their exposure on the smaller conference games. GL on your plays 
pollockanesian
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


My perception is Duquesne is a good team and their record reflects that. Just look at their 2 records. There is no logical reason for Richmond to be taking more money whether it's total amount wagered or percentage of public. The perception isn't Oh Hey Look Richmond is playing Duq on the road, so lets hammer Richmond! I can give you a handful of examples of this same situation over the past week. 

The books are getting a 50/50 split with Duquesne @-2..Thats all they care about.  In my opinion it should be Duquesne -6...  Why do people like Richmond in this game is beyond me- Some big bettors are dummies-
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


My perception is Duquesne is a good team and their record reflects that. Just look at their 2 records. There is no logical reason for Richmond to be taking more money whether it's total amount wagered or percentage of public. The perception isn't Oh Hey Look Richmond is playing Duq on the road, so lets hammer Richmond! I can give you a handful of examples of this same situation over the past week. 

I'm certainly not getting involved here, but this type of reductionist thinking is quite flawed.

Duquesne has played the single worst (#351/351) schedule in the country. We're a week away from February and they STILL haven't played a Top 100 team. Incredibly, Duquesne didn't play a road game until January 6th and didn't even leave Pittsburgh city limits until December 22nd. 

By way of comparison, Richmond has played eight (8) top 100 teams and the 36th ranked non-conference schedule. In fact, Duquesne is the 5th worst opponent the Spiders have played this season, and during the non-conference schedule, Richmond only played two sub-200 teams. Duquesne played 10 sub-200 teams, including five ranked #300 or lower.

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by cheeser:

I believe TV exposure guarantees Vegas knowledge to help set the line. 

They make the line that they think will get 50/50 action-  The eagles patriot game probably should be a PICKEM, but if they set that line they would get an big inbalance in the betting and thier money would be exposed. They don't gamble- They pay winners from losers and take a cut for holding everyones money. 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


I'm certainly not getting involved here, but this type of reductionist thinking is quite flawed.

Duquesne has played the single worst (#351/351) schedule in the country. We're a week away from February and they STILL haven't played a Top 100 team. Incredibly, Duquesne didn't play a road game until January 6th and didn't even leave Pittsburgh city limits until December 22nd. 

By way of comparison, Richmond has played eight (8) top 100 teams and the 36th ranked non-conference schedule. In fact, Duquesne is the 5th worst opponent the Spiders have played this season, and during the non-conference schedule, Richmond only played two sub-200 teams. Duquesne played 10 sub-200 teams, including five ranked #300 or lower.


But do you think the average bettor digs that deep to see who has played the tougher schedule? To each his own, but this is just my personal strategy. I'm not betting this game, but if I did I would side with Richmond not knowing that data, just based off my strategy and line movement. 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


I'm certainly not getting involved here, but this type of reductionist thinking is quite flawed.

Duquesne has played the single worst (#351/351) schedule in the country. We're a week away from February and they STILL haven't played a Top 100 team. Incredibly, Duquesne didn't play a road game until January 6th and didn't even leave Pittsburgh city limits until December 22nd. 

By way of comparison, Richmond has played eight (8) top 100 teams and the 36th ranked non-conference schedule. In fact, Duquesne is the 5th worst opponent the Spiders have played this season, and during the non-conference schedule, Richmond only played two sub-200 teams. Duquesne played 10 sub-200 teams, including five ranked #300 or lower.


Exactly- People don't respect Duquesne- For a multitude of reasons

I do think they get by Richmond tonight...I think Duquesne is underbet.


 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by CMoult83:


But do you think the average bettor digs that deep to see who has played the tougher schedule? To each his own, but this is just my personal strategy. I'm not betting this game, but if I did I would side with Richmond not knowing that data, just based off my strategy and line movement. 

Don't ever play the tote board- People will lead you right off a cliff
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